The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday is segregated into two slates: on DraftKings, the early 10-game slate begins at 1:07 pm ET, and the seven-game main slate commences at 7:15 pm ET. The first game of the Indians-Tigers and Twins-Royals doubleheaders are included in the early slate, and their second game belongs in the main slate. On FanDuel, the early slate is a four-game contest. The main slate begins at 4:05 pm ET and includes six games, none of which begin prior to 7:15, which kicks off the second main slate — a five-game endeavor. The second game of both doubleheaders are not included on FanDuel. For more clarity on this, see our Models, where the slates are easily discerned.
Pitchers
Studs
Six pitchers cost more than $9,000 on DraftKings, two of whom are available in the early slate. Chris Sale headlines a pitching quartet on FanDuel priced at least $9,000:
Chris Sale is the most expensive pitcher, and he will face the Blue Jays in the afternoon. He is the only pitcher opposing a team implied to score less than 4.0 runs in the early slate, and his K Prediction is currently 1.9 points higher than that of any other pitcher. He’s clearly the top option on the slate, and on April 20th, Sale had a season-high 13 strikeouts in Toronto and held the Blue Jays scoreless in 8.0 innings.
The Blue Jays are presently implied to score 3.8 runs, and when Sale has faced a team implied to score at least 3.7 runs he’s averaged a +4.89 DraftKings Plus/Minus with an 81 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool). One concerning aspect of Sale’s peripherals is his 7.6 K Prediction, his sixth-lowest mark this season. When expensive pitchers with similar 12-month SO/9 rates (11.125) are projected for comparable K Predictions, they’ve netted a +0.01 DraftKings Plus/Minus. In Sale’s case, he’s been slightly better than average with a +1.77 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Sale has provided the best Consistency Ratings on DraftKings and FanDuel this season, and he’s likely to have high ownership in GPPs. However, since left-handed pitchers have averaged the second-highest FanDuel Plus/Minus against the Blue Jays this season, loading up on Sale appears to the prudent and dominant choice this afternoon:
Pro Subscribers can review GPP ownership rates on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Carlos Carrasco costs $100 more than Zack Greinke on DraftKings, the only non-all-day slate in which they’re both rosterable. They have nearly identical data in almost every category with the exception of K Prediction, where Carrasco leads every pitcher at 8.1. The Vegas data has not yet been set for the second game of the Indians-Tigers doubleheader, and Greinke is facing a team with a slate-low 3.8 implied total.
Carrasco was knocked around for eight runs in 3.1 innings in his last start, and yet his salary has increased to $12,000. Carrasco was still able to punch out seven hitters in the abbreviated outing, a mark he’s met or exceeded in three of the last five starts. When Carrasco has been priced within $500 of $12,000, he’s struggled to provide value:
Alternatively, Carrasco has been valuable on the road, averaging a +7.17 DraftKings Plus/Minus away from Progressive Field. When Carrasco has been projected for a similar K prediction on the road, he’s averaged 27.59 DraftKings points in 18 instances. The Tigers have below-average wOBA and ISO averages against right-handed pitchers this season, and righties with K Predictions comparable to Carrasco’s have averaged a +3.72 DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Tigers.
In 13.1 innings against the Rockies this season, Greinke has accumulated 16 strikeouts, and in two starts prior he barely exceeded salary-based expectations at Coors Field. He’s not available in the first FanDuel main slate — a mess of a slate — but he’s likely the top option in the second FanDuel main slate, where the choice boils down to him or Rich Hill among the high-priced options. Right-handed home pitchers have averaged a -3.29 DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Rockies this season — a trend Greinke bucked — but only four righties were priced above $8,500, and only three had K Predictions of at least 6.8.
Carrasco has provided immense value on the road, and Greinke has been equally impressive at home this season, averaging a +8.27 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Both pitchers may make more sense in a GPP setting, and since Carrasco has the higher K Prediction and costs only $100 more than Greinke opting for the Diamondbacks ace could create a solid edge should Carrasco author a repeat performance of his last start.
Rich Hill is the third consecutive left-handed pitcher to face the Padres, against whom lefties have averaged a league-best +6.65 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 78 percent Consistency Rating. The current projected Padres lineup has the lowest wOBA all day. Hill costs more than $11,000 on DraftKings for the ninth time in our database, but he also gets the easiest matchup on the slate. His $8,600 FanDuel salary is much more palatable, and he and Greinke are the only pitchers with K Predictions of at least 7.0 in the second main slate. Hill leads all pitchers in the slate with a 7.2 K Prediction.
Prior to his last outing, Hill had pitched only 3.0, 4.0, or 5.0 innings this season, which crippled his value. He lasted 7.0 innings and struck out seven against an Angels team 21st in strikeout rate against lefties. Now that he’s facing a Padres team with the fourth-highest strikeout rate and lowest wOBA against lefties this season, Hill deserves immense consideration as a cash-game option in the second FanDuel main slate.
Value
Gio Gonzalez costs an all-time high of $11,700 on DraftKings, but he remains less than $9,000 on FanDuel, where he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven straight outings:
Gonzalez is $500 less than Greinke and $300 more than Hill in the second main slate, which places him in a precarious position. Gonzalez classifies more as a cash-game pitcher, but Hill’s matchup may be the safest of the night. Additionally, Greinke and Hill have higher K Predictions and lower implied run totals than Gonzalez. Even though the Cardinals are presently implied to score 4.7 runs, they have the sixth-lowest wOBA against left-handed pitchers this season. Gonzalez will likely provide a distinct ownership edge in GPPs due to the abnormal conditions on the slate.
Zach Davies costs $7,400 on FanDuel, which is $800 less than the most expensive pitcher on the first FanDuel main slate, where he’s the only pitcher with all positive Statcast differentials. No pitcher in the slate has a K Prediction above 5.7, and none offers comparable recent Statcast data to that of Davies. He’s limited hitters to a 20 percent hard hit rate, 86 mph exit velocity, and a 191-foot batted ball distance in his last two starts. Davies has historically performed better at home during the summer months, averaging a +7.44 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 69.2 percent Consistency Rating in June, July, and August. The Marlins are presently implied to score 4.5 runs, the second-highest mark in the slate, but the Brewers have the second-highest moneyline odds. Only two hitters in the projected Marlins lineup have positive distance differentials.
Fastballs
Jose Berrios: He’s the only pitcher priced above $11,000 on DraftKings with a K Prediction less than 6.0. He’s also the only natural GPP pivot off of Sale in the early slate, and he’s recorded seven or eight strikeouts in three of his last four outings.
Zach Wheeler: Pitch count may be a hindrance to his value, but the Mets currently possess the top moneyline on a DraftKings slate in which Sale is pitching. On FanDuel, he’s the most expensive pitching option and the only one facing a team implied to score fewer than 4.5 runs, as the Marlins are currently implied for 3.9 runs.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top DraftKings stack in the early slate in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the White Sox, one of six teams not presently implied to score at least 5.0 runs:
If you’re paying up for Sale, you need to save on hitters. The White Sox offer an 85 Team Value Rating, and among the top stacks theirs is the only one cheaper than $17,000. Avisail Garcia has missed two straight games with a sore left knee, and his absence may be disruptive as he leads the White Sox with a +3.11 DraftKings Plus/Minus against left-handed pitchers this season. This stack has averaged a +0.92 DraftKings Plus/Minus against lefties, clearly buoyed by Garcia’s production.
The top FanDuel stack in either of the main slates in the Bales Model belongs to the Reds, the second-most expensive stack in the first main slate:
Pitchers in the first main slate are decidedly lackluster, likely shifting most of the ownership to hitters on teams with the highest implied run totals. The Reds are one of four teams presently implied to score 5.5 runs, and all four hitters in the stack have recent batted ball distance differentials of at least +10 feet. Adam Duvall and Joey Votto each have three home runs in the last four games, and Duvall has reached base in 13 straight. This group of hitters has averaged a +3.76 FanDuel Plus/Minus against right-handed pitchers at Great American Ball Park this year, and it noticeably excludes Billy Hamilton, who is one of five Reds under similar circumstances with a Consistency Rating of at least 50 percent.
Batters
The Orioles presently lead all teams with a 99 DraftKings and 96 FanDuel Team Value Rating, but according to our MLB Lineups page their game has a 45 chance of heavy rain. Every hitter in the projected lineup, none of whom costs more than $4,000 on DraftKings, has at least five Pro Trends, and they’re facing a pitcher in Jake Odorizzi who has allowed a recent fly ball rate of 57 percent and a recent batted ball distance of 231 feet. When Odorizzi last faced the Orioles, he allowed four runs and two home runs in 5.1 innings, and he’s allowed at least one home run in 11 straight outings. Rain is the most detrimental aspect to rostering the Orioles, but due to the harsh forecast they may offer an ownership advantage in GPPs.
While the Padres are bad against lefties, outfielder Hunter Renfroe isn’t. He ranks second among hitters in the all-day slate with a 0.443 split-adjusted wOBA. He has five hits including a home run in his last two games, both of which were against lefties, and he leads the Padres with a +1.50 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 52.2 percent Consistency Rating against lefties this season. Since Hill will likely be a popular option in the main slate, rostering Renfroe could be a contrarian way to generate a unique lineup while going chalk everywhere else.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
