The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday offers a seven-game early slate at 2:10 pm ET and a seven-game main slate at 7:15 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Six pitchers cost at least $10,000 on DraftKings, and eight pitchers are above $9,000 on FanDuel:
Clayton Kershaw has failed to meet salary-based expectations in consecutive games, and his DraftKings salary has dropped to its lowest point of the season (excluding his Coors Field starts). Still, despite allowing five home runs in his last two outings, Kershaw has limited hitters to a 195-foot batted ball distance and 50 percent ground ball rate. He also improved upon his 12-month hard hit rate by three percent. The Rockies have the third-lowest road ISO this season, which should help mitigate Kershaw’s home run concerns.
Kershaw shared Monday’s slate with Corey Kluber, Jon Lester, and Johnny Cueto. He was nearly $2,000 more than each of them, and his average guaranteed prize pool (GPP) ownership was about 50 percent on DraftKings and 36.1 percent on FanDuel (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard). He also had the highest DraftKings Volatility score. Over the past two seasons, Kershaw’s average GPP home ownership is 35.0 and 44.4 percent on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Now that Kershaw’s salary has decreased significantly, he’ll likely continue his reign as the highest-owned player at home where he’s facing a team presently implied to score a slate-low 2.7 runs. He has solid cash-game appeal thanks to his +9.21 Plus/Minus with a 77.6 percent Consistency Rating at Dodger Stadium (per our Trends tool), and when he’s pitched with a similar K Prediction, moneyline, and opponent implied run total Kershaw has averaged 30.68 DraftKings points and 49.27 FanDuel points. Additionally, left-handed pitchers at home have fared better against the Rockies this season than right-handed throwers:
The slate has worthwhile pitching pivots if Kershaw’s recent skid is concerning. Even though he’s at least $2,000 more than any other pitcher on FanDuel, Kershaw is only fifth in the main slate in K Prediction. Prepare for Kershaw to be the chalk on such a short slate, but with most of the offenses presently implied to score no more than 4.6 runs, consider spending down a smidge on pitching in order to gain a slight edge on the field.
Robbie Ray will face the Phillies for the second time this week, and he’ll be equipped with an 8.8 K Prediction and slate-best -260 moneyline. He had his second-worst outing of the season last Sunday against the Phillies, allowing four runs and two homers in 5.1 innings. Despite his high strikeout upside, his average GPP ownership ranked third on DraftKings among pitchers behind Jacob deGrom and Jimmy Nelson. Ray’s $13,500 salary likely played a role in his depreciated DraftKings ownership. He led all pitchers on FanDuel at 34.4 percent.
Ray’s price has been reduced significantly on both sites, and similarly priced pitchers with analogous K Predictions and moneylines have averaged a +3.66 DraftKings Plus/Minus and +3.73 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Even with the relative discount, he costs only $200 less than Kershaw on DraftKings. The Vegas over/under has not yet been set for the Phillies-Diamondbacks affair, but since the Diamondbacks are already heavy favorites opting for Ray in FanDuel GPPs could help open up an additional $2,000 in cap space.
After missing two starts with lower back discomfort, Lance McCullers will take the mound with his fifth-highest K Prediction in our database. There’s been no mention of any limitations, and he’s the cheapest of the four stud pitchers in the main slate. Prior to his disabled list stint, McCullers recorded eight strikeouts in three straight games, and when he faced the Mariners earlier this season he registered 25.3 DraftKings points while limiting them to one run in 6.0 innings. McCullers has a 62 percent ground ball rate over the last year, and only three hitters in the projected Mariners lineup have higher recent fly ball rates than ground ball rates — two of whom are at the end of the order.
Corey Kluber is one of two pitchers in the early slate facing a team implied to score less than 4.0 runs, and he leads his cohort with a 7.9 K Prediction and -230 moneyline odds. His recent Statcast data is peerless: Over his last three starts, he’s allowed a 63 percent ground ball rate and a 12 percent hard hit rate to go along with a distance differential of -27 feet. Since returning from the disabled list, he’s struck out at least 10 hitters in three of four starts. He’ll likely be the chalk and highest-owned player in the early slate, and he’s facing a projected Twins lineup with the second-lowest yearly wOBA against right-handed pitchers.
Values
Dinelson Lamet has a 10.4 K Prediction, the second-highest mark this season. Pitchers with similar K Predictions have averaged a +5.27 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Lamet has also surrendered eight homers in five career starts, including three to the Royals at Petco Park, where he’ll pitch against the Tigers today. What Lamet offers in K Prediction, he negates with his recent Statcast marks: A 245-foot batted ball distance allowed and 53 percent fly ball rate as well as a -52 DraftKings Recent Batted Ball Luck. The Tigers have mediocre numbers this season against right-handed pitchers with the exception of their league-best 42.6 percent hard hit rate. Lamet is cheap enough to consider using in cash games, but his bust potential makes him more of a GPP play.
Jacob Faria has pitched at least 6.1 innings and limited his opponents to one run each in three career starts. He also has the second-highest K Prediction and best Park Factor in the early slate, and his +11 Recent Batted Ball Luck is enouraging. He’s facing a projected Orioles lineup with the lowest yearly wOBA on the slate, and he leads all pitchers with seven FanDuel Pro Trends. The line of delineation in the early slate is Kluber and Faria on one side and everyone else on the other in terms of all pertinent categories and recent Statcast data. Faria is only three starts into his major league career, but he’s emerged as a viable pivot to Kluber in FanDuel GPPs and a solid SP2 on DraftKings.
Fastballs
Tyler Chatwood: He’s averaged a +6.30 DraftKings Plus/Minus on the road since last season, and he’s opposing Kershaw, which will likely cap his overall GPP ownership. The Dodgers haven’t scored less than six runs in seven straight games, further diminishing Chatwood’s appeal. However, they’ll likely be without Corey Seager, and Chatwood has limited hitters to a 186-foot batted ball distance and 55 percent ground ball rate in his last two starts.
Homer Bailey: He costs $4,400 on DraftKings, and he’ll make his first start after undergoing offseason elbow surgery. He has the third-highest K Prediction in the early slate, and he’s facing a Nationals team with a horrifying 5.4 implied run total. Barring a pitch restriction, Bailey is worth considering as a contrarian punt in GPPs.
Anibal Sanchez: His 8.4 K Prediction is his second-highest mark in our database, aided by the Padres’ league-high 25.8 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season. The Padres also have the second-lowest wOBA and fifth-lowest walk rate against righties. Pitchers with similar K Predictions against the Padres have been valuable assets, and Sanchez costs only $5,600 on DraftKings:
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top afternoon DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the top of the Braves’ order:
The Braves are not one of the four teams presently implied to score at least 5.0 runs in the slate, but they offer a competitive 72 Team Value Rating. Matt Kemp is dealing with hamstring tightness and may be forced to sit for the second straight game. Since he’s also the most expensive and lowest-rated hitter in this stack, converting to a four-man stack shouldn’t be cumbersome. Matt Adams has averaged a +3.93 DraftKings Plus/Minus while exceeding salary-based expectations half the time in 30 games as a Brave. Alternatively, this stack does carry a fair amount of risk as all five hitters possess negative Recent Batted Ball Luck marks. The Indians could be the chalk stack of the early slate since they lead all teams with an implied total of 5.8 runs. Pivoting to a cheap Braves stack is an option, and they’re facing a pitcher who has allowed four runs in consecutive starts.
The Red Sox presently have the four highest-rated main-slate stacks in the Bales Models. Not to divulge all the goodies, but the top stack includes the Model’s four highest-rated hitters:
The Red Sox are presently implied to score a slate-best 5.7 runs, and their 89 Team Value Rating is tops. Dustin Pedroia is a wild card since he played yesterday only due to Josh Rutledge‘s hip soreness. Every hitter in the stack has positive recent Statcast data in each category, and Pedroia is the only one without a recent hard hit rate of at least 41 percent. Angels righty J.C. Ramirez has allowed a 44 percent hard hit rate and 94 mph exit velocity in his last two outings — the worst marks in the main slate. Even though the Red Sox are in a good spot, they’re competing with Kershaw for majority ownership, and Kershaw tends to win ownership battles. However, since only two teams are presently implied to score more than 5.0 runs, the pitching depth may help offset Kershaw’s stranglehold and elevate ownership for Red Sox stacks.
Batters
The Cubs-Marlins game features two left-handed starters and the four top hitters in 12-month wOBA in the early slate. Three of those four hitters have the best 12-month ISOs, led by left-handed hitter Justin Bour at 0.386. Although Marcel Ozuna is not included in the quartet, he’s averaged a solid +3.97 DraftKings Plus/Minus at Marlins Park this season. Stacking against Cubs left-hander Jon Lester will likely be an unpopular play, but the Marlins have the ninth-highest wOBA against lefties this season. If the Marlins are able to knock Lester out early, they’ll face an overworked Cubs bullpen.
The Diamondbacks have averaged a league-best +3.48 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 52.6 percent Consistency Rating at home this season. It didn’t pay off last night as they were limited to one run, but based on the Diamondbacks’ slate-high moneyline, they’ll likely have a high implied run total once it’s released. Phillies right-handed pitcher Ben Lively faced the Diamondbacks last Sunday and prevailed with 31.0 FanDuel points. Despite the DFS victory, he’s allowed at least eight hits and three runs in three straight starts, and his distance differential of +23 feet is the second-highest mark in the main slate. Only one hitter in the projected Diamondbacks lineup carries a FanDuel Bargain Rating less than 76 percent, and the way their manager Torey Lovullo is shuffling through leadoff hitters value will likely be found atop their order.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
