The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday has a split slate: There are three games in the 2:20 pm ET early slate and 12 games in the 7:05 pm ET main slate.
Pitchers
Kershaw
Clayton Kershaw typically dominates slates he’s in, and that’s especially true today in terms of salary:
At $14,200 on DraftKings and $12,300 on FanDuel, he’s $2,800 more expensive than any player on both sites. The chasm proves to be even deeper in the main slate, as Rick Porcello, Marco Estrada, and Jason Vargas are removed from the player pool. Gerrit Cole is thus the only non-Kershaw pitcher more than $8,700 on FanDuel in the main slate. Yeah, Kershaw should be chalky.
He disappointed last game, scoring only 28.0 FanDuel points while allowing three earned runs, eight hits, and two homers across six innings against the Giants. A 28-point performance might not seem disastrous in a vacuum, but given Kershaw’s massive $12,600 salary it equated to a poor -12.04 Plus/Minus.
That said, he’s in a nice bounceback spot at Petco Park — a pitcher’s park — and against a Padres team that is currently implied for just 3.4 runs and ranks 28th in the league this season with a .285 team wOBA. He is only a -144 moneyline favorite currently, which is a pretty rare situation for Kershaw. He’s been a -144 moneyline favorite only six times out of 80 games since 2014, most of which came against Madison Bumgarner:
Today, he is facing Clayton Richard, who owns an awful 1.648 past-year WHIP. Richard has allowed a batted ball exit velocity of 92 miles per hour over his last two starts, and still the Dodgers are currently implied for only 4.1 runs. This odd Vegas data point likely says more about the Dodgers offense than it Kershaw, but Kershaw is dependent on his offense to a degree since pitchers get fantasy points for wins.
Nonetheless, Kershaw is in a great spot and owns a massive 8.7 K Prediction — a mark 1.4 strikeouts higher than that of any other main-slate pitcher. Per the Trends tool, when he’s had a similar K Prediction since 2014, Kershaw has averaged 30.45 DraftKings points and a +7.57 Plus/Minus with a ridiculous 70.3 percent Consistency Rating:
Given the other options today, he will likely have the slate’s highest guaranteed prize pool ownership.
Non-Kershaws
Lance McCullers owns the highest 12-month SO/9 rate by a mile at 12.074, and he’s already gone for double-digit strikeouts twice this year in six starts. He’s facing the Angels, who haven’t struck out a ton this year — they rank 23rd with a 20.2 percent strikeout rate — but McCullers still owns the third-highest K Prediction of the day at 7.3. He and Cole are rated similarly in the Bales Model for FanDuel, and people will likely think Cole is safer given his high -155 moneyline; the Pirates are currently implied for 4.5 runs. That said, McCullers at $8,500 is $1,000 cheaper than Cole and owns a K Prediction 1.2 strikeouts higher; they both have opponent run totals of 3.6. And in terms of Statcast data they’ve been fairly close:
- McCullers: 203-foot batted ball distance, 88 MPH exit velocity, 55 percent ground ball rate, 24 percent hard hit rate
- Cole: 186-foot batted ball distance, 86 MPH exit velocity, 51 percent ground ball rate, 17 percent hard hit rate
Cole has been excellent this season, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of his last four starts, and he has a lot of safety today against a Brewers offense that continues to get little love from Vegas bettors. McCullers, with his high strikeout upside, represents a nice pivot in GPPs.
Dylan Bundy is an intriguing case today. He’s come back down to earth since an impressive 31.35 DraftKings performance to start the season, but he’s still averaged a robust +5.57 Plus/Minus this year. He’s been fine in terms of limiting runs — he’s allowed just eight runs through six starts — but he’s been unable to make batters whiff, striking out three or fewer batters in four of his last five. Still, his 8.45 SO/9 rate is fine, and he has a respectable 6.5 K Prediction. But what makes Bundy really intriguing is his massive -204 moneyline. Pitchers in that range, independent of any other filters, have historically averaged 37.54 FanDuel points and a +5.50 Plus/Minus with a 63.5 percent Consistency Rating. He’s facing the White Sox, who are currently implied for just 3.7 runs and rank 26th this season with a .296 wOBA. He has solid Statcast data, as evidenced by his 29 percent hard hit rate. As odd as it is to say, the 24-year-old Bundy is one of the safer prospects today outside of Kershaw.
Fastballs
Marco Estrada: He has had between 23 and 27 DraftKings points in each of his last four starts and owns the second-highest K Prediction (7.4) today against the Rays, who are currently implied for 3.9 runs; he’s allowed a slate-low 16 percent hard hit rate recently.
Vincent Velasquez: He is especially cheap on FanDuel, where his $7,400 price tag comes with six Pro Trends and a 77 percent Bargain Rating; he has a brutal matchup against a potent Washington offense, but he does have a high 7.2 K Prediction.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. On DraftKings, the highest-rated five-man stack (in the Bales Model) belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks, which is no surprise given they’re playing at Coors Field:
This game predictably owns the highest Vegas total of the day at 11.5 runs, although the Diamondbacks are currently implied for 5.4 runs — 0.4 runs less than their opening total and 0.8 runs less than the opposing Rockies. The issue with rostering the Coors Field batters, of course, is that they’re expensive — and so is Kershaw. We do have some evidence this year that Kershaw typically takes precedence for users over Coors Field: In fact, he even had hhigh ownership when he was pitching at Coors. Now that he’s in a nice matchup, it’s likely that he’ll have high ownership and people will likely try to find cheaper stacking options.
On FanDuel, that might be a stack of the Baltimore Orioles:
The Orioles currently own the highest FanDuel Team Value Rating (TVR), which is defined thus:
A 0 to 100 grade showing a team’s historical value based on their live implied runs and collective salaries on a given DFS site
They are currently implied for 5.5 runs — which is higher than Arizona’s mark — and this 2-3-6-8 stack costs just $12,800. For reference, the top-rated four-man Diamondbacks stack (which is admittedly the highest-rated stack in the Bales Model) costs $18,400. That $5,600 difference represents the gap between Kershaw and his opponent in Richard, whose $6,900 price tag is the 21st-highest salary today. The Diamondbacks and Rockies are are valuable to own; Coors Field easily has the highest Plus/Minus value for hitters among all parks:
But are they worth that much? — the difference between the Claytons? Probably not — and ownership will likely reflect that.
Batters
Khris Davis is only $3,600 on FanDuel, which is likely because he’s done this over his past 10 games:
That said, his Statcast data paints a very different picture. Over that same time frame, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 276 feet, an exit velocity of 98 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 58 percent, and a hard hit rate of 50 percent. He’s struck out a ton of late — at least once in each of his last 15 games — but he’s got a lot of power and it hasn’t resulted in fantasy production lately. That could change today, especially against Detroit righty Jordan Zimmermann, who has allowed 28 hits over his last three starts. His Statcast data is just as bad: Over his last two, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 212 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 45 percent. Davis is currently projected for only two to four percent ownership today given the Kershaw/Coors dynamic.
In the early slate, it’s difficult to fade Miguel Sano, who has put together fantasy production to match his ridiculous Statcast data of late. He’s now averaged an +8.71 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 60 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games, and his batted ball data remains ridiculous: Over his last seven, he’s averaged a distance of 248 feet, an exit velocity of 100 freaking miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 59 percent. That’s unfair. He does have a tough matchup against Porcello, but Porcello actually has some concerning batted ball data, allowing an average distance of 212 feet and an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour over his last two starts. Sano owns a .279 ISO mark and a .526 slugging percentage against fellow righties, and he’s still only $3,800 on FanDuel, where he has a 70 percent Bargain Rating.
The beauty of Kershaw and Coors Field: You can roster Kris Bryant, who owns a slate-high .380 ISO against left-handed pitchers, at fairly low ownership. He’s faced a lefty seven times this season already, and he’s averaged 16.56 FanDuel points with an 85.7 percent Consistency Rating in those games. His opponent, Yankees rookie Jordan Montgomery, has been good in his debut season, averaging a +4.52 Plus/Minus through four starts. That said, those came against the Orioles, Pirates, White Sox, and Rays; only the Pirates game was on the road, which is also a strong pitcher’s park. On the road at Wrigley Field against the higher-powered Cubs offense — that’s a different story. The Cubs are implied for only 4.0 runs and will likely carry low ownership. Pro Subscribers can track ownership shortly after lock on the MLB Ownership Dashboard.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
