The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday has a split slate: There are seven games in the 2:05 pm ET early slate and eight games in the 7:15 pm ET main slate.
Pitchers
Studs
There are four pitchers priced at $9,300 or more on FanDuel, headlined by Max Scherzer at $12,600 on DraftKings and $11,600 on FanDuel:
Scherzer has been excellent to start the season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.75 on FanDuel over his first eight starts. For today’s matchup with the Braves, he leads the slate with a K Prediction of 9.7 and has the second-best moneyline odds at -185. Pitchers with comparable numbers in both categories have historically returned solid value on FanDuel (per our Trends tool):
At the same time, the Braves are implied for 3.8 runs, tied for ‘only’ the fifth-lowest mark of the day — which is weird considering that they’re without their best hitter in Freddie Freeman. One factor working against Scherzer is the Braves’ new stadium, which so far has proven to be a hitter’s park. The sample is small, but SunTrust has been the worst park in the league for pitchers in terms of historical Plus/Minus on FanDuel:
He also has some relatively weak Statcast data over his last two starts with a 217-foot average batted ball distance, 37 percent hard hit rate, and -82 Recent Batted Ball Luck Score. Scherzer still looks like a top pitching option, but he has question marks — not the least of which is the 74 percent chance of precipitation for the Nationals-Braves game.
On the main slate, Justin Verlander has not lived up to his reputation early in the season, posting an average Plus/Minus of -0.31 on FanDuel through his first eight games. He also has some downright terrifying Statcast data over his last two starts with a batted ball differential of +34 feet. So why should we consider him? Well, strikeouts dominate for pitchers in daily fantasy baseball, and the projected Rangers lineup has struck out in 32.5 percent of its at-bats against right-handed pitchers over the last twelve months. His underwhelming statistics should also make him a low-owned option in guaranteed prize pools.
Values
Like some of his fellow Dodgers, Julio Urias appears to be on a count of roughly 90 pitches to start the season. So far his results have been mediocre:
For today though, it’s hard to overlook his data: Urias has only a slightly lower K Prediction than Scherzer at 9.1, and he has a significantly better opponent implied team total at 3.2 runs (per the Vegas Dashboard). He’s also one of only two pitchers on DraftKings priced at $8,000 or above with a positive Recent BBL Score, suggesting he’s been somewhat unlucky with his previous results. It remains to be seen if he can pitch deep enough into a game to have GPP-winning upside, but regardless he’ll likely be one of the chalkiest pitchers of the day.
Over the last 12 months, no pitcher has posted a higher K/9 than Robbie Ray with a total of 12.02, and he’s third on today’s slate with a K Prediction of 8.0. Ray can be inconsistent, but he’s been productive away from the hitter-friendly confines of Chase Field. He has a Plus/Minus of +3.90 on DraftKings when pitching for the Diamondbacks on the road, and his current matchup in San Diego gives him the highest Park Factor of the day at 88. It’s hard to call Ray a ‘value’ on FanDuel, where his Bargain Rating of 52 is the second-lowest mark among all pitchers priced above $8,500, but he makes a lot of sense on DraftKings, where he has only the eighth-highest salary.
Fastballs
Jake Arrieta: He’s the biggest moneyline favorite of the day at -201 and is facing a Brewers team that has a lot of power but also the second-most strikeouts in the league. The weather in this game currently looks questionable, so be sure to monitor the news prior to lineup lock. If it does play, Arrieta should benefit from a strong wind blowing in from center field.
Carlos Martinez: He’s facing a Giants team that has been awful to start the season, averaging the second-fewest runs per game, and he leads the slate with a 94 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel. He also has the best recent Statcast data of all the ‘elite’ pitchers today with a 190-foot average batted ball distance, 89 mph exit velocity, and a 56 percent ground ball rate. This game looks like it should start fine but could have some weather issues later on, which is always a bigger concern for pitchers than for hitters.
Yovani Gallardo: As far as cheap pitchers go, Gallardo is probably the safest bet at $7,100 on DraftKings. He has a minuscule K Prediction at 4.4, but his opponent implied team total of 3.7 is tied for the second-lowest mark of the day, and the White Sox .288 wOBA against right-handed pitchers is the second-lowest mark in the league.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, its easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack courtesy of the Bales Model belongs to the Houston Astros:
The Astros have an implied team total of 4.8 runs and are scheduled to take on Mike Clevenger, whose 12-month WHIP of 1.56 is the second-highest mark in the early slate. What the Astros really have going for them though is their recent Statcast data: Over the last 15 days all of the above batters (with the exception of Evan Gattis) have positive batted ball differentials:
Batters with comparable team totals and distance differentials of 10 to 30 feet have a historical Plus/Minus of +0.96 on DraftKings.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Baltimore Orioles:
The Orioles’ implied team total of 5.3 runs is the highest of the slate, and this stack features four players on the positive side of their wOBA and ISO splits:
All four players have Bargain Ratings of at least 82 percent, and batters with comparable Bargain Ratings and implied team totals have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.48 on FanDuel. Chris Davis in particular has absolutely crushed the ball lately: His batted ball distance of 262 feet over the last 12 games is the fifth-highest mark on the slate. He has five homers over his last seven games.
Batters
Logan Morrison has been red hot lately, with an average Plus/Minus of +3.94 on FanDuel over his last 10 games. His recent Statcast data suggests that’s no fluke:
Batters with comparable recent distance averages have a Plus/Minus of +2.49 on FanDuel. Plus, opposing pitcher Masahrio Tanaka is relatively home run-prone with a HR/9 of 1.23 over the past 12 months and is coming off an outing in which he allowed eight earned runs in only 1.2 innings pitched.
Stolen bases can be undervalued assets in daily fantasy baseball, and Trea Turner is currently third on the slate with an average of .376 steals per game. What sets Turner apart from other speedsters though is his power; no player in the top 10 in steals per game has an ISO higher than Turner’s .247. He’s also projected to bat leadoff for the team with the highest implied total of the day at 5.4 runs, facing a pitcher in Bartolo Colon who has an ERA of 6.80 on the season, and sporting a Bargain Rating of 97 percent on FanDuel.
Here was Charlie Blackmon’s ownership on Friday’s slate (per the DFS Ownership Dashboard):
When the Rockies are away from Coors few people give them a second thought, which can make them excellent GPP targets. Blackmon is still one of the best hitters on the slate, with a .419 wOBA and .302 ISO vs. righties, and he has good Statcast data over his last 12 games with a 232-foot batted ball distance, 92 mph exit velocity, 32 percent hard hit rate.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
