The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday has a split slate: There are six games in the 1:05 pm ET early slate and nine games in the 7:05 pm ET main slate.
Pitchers
Studs
There are four pitchers today priced at $8,900 or above on FanDuel; interestingly enough, all four are pitching in the early slate:
Chris Sale leads the way with an $11,800 price tag, and so far this season he’s been worth every penny of that salary: He’s averaged a ridiculous +16.40 Plus/Minus on FanDuel over his first seven starts, and even at his current salary he still commands a Bargain Rating of 90 percent. For today’s start, he leads the slate in three main pitching categories: K Prediction (9.0), moneyline odds (-236), and implied opponent run total (2.9). Historically, pitchers with comparable numbers in all three categories have been an excellent value on FanDuel (per the Trends tool):
If there’s one area where Sale doesn’t absolutely dominate on this slate, it’s his Statcast data. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 223 feet, an exit velocity of 91 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 46 percent, and a hard hit rate of 32 percent — all those are at or above his 12-month averages. He also has a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of -90, which implies that he’s gotten quite lucky over that time period. It’s hard to be concerned with a pitcher who’s struck out at least 10 batters in six straight starts, but there’s at least some reason for skepticism here.
Jon Lester has been somewhat disappointing to start the year, but he is coming off his best start of the season last time out against a good Yankees lineup:
He’s got another tough start today against the Cardinals, whose projected lineup has posted a wOBA of .335 against lefties over the last 12 months. Further, Lester’s traditional metrics are somewhat pedestrian: His K Prediction of 6.9 and moneyline odds of -108 are lower than what you’d might expect for a pitcher of Lester’s caliber. That said, he really stands out with his Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s posted a batted ball distance 24 feet lower than his 12-month average, and comparably-priced pitchers with similar decreases have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.06 on FanDuel. He should be lower-owned than Sale, which makes him an intriguing pivot in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). Pro Subscribers can view ownership shortly after lock on our MLB Ownership Dashboard.
Values
The pitching cohort is much weaker on the main slate; only two pitchers face teams implied for less than 4.2 runs: Tanner Roark and Ricky Nolasco. Of the two, Roark appears to be in the better spot. He’s currently a larger favorite at -155 and is facing a Phillies team that is implied for only 3.8 runs. His K Prediction of 6.1 is nothing to write home about, but it is still the sixth-highest mark on the main slate.
What really sets Roark apart, however, is his elite Statcast data. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 179 feet, an exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of only 27 percent. Pitchers with comparable Statcast numbers and moneyline odds have provided solid historical value:
Here’s Trevor Cahill‘s start to the season:
Just because this production has been unexpected for Cahill, don’t assume he’s about to come crashing back to reality. He has a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +3, which suggests that his performance has been far from fluky. His Statcast data over his last two starts has also been excellent: He’s posted a batted ball distance of 175 feet, an exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, a ground ball rate of 47 percent, and a hard hit rate of 34 percent. He is pitching away from the friendly confines of Petco Park, but he does benefit from facing a Chicago team that has the second-lowest wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season (.276). His 7.1 K Prediction is also the third-highest mark on the main slate.
Fastballs
Alex Wood: His K Prediction of 8.7 is second only to Sale’s, however he is pitching in the high altitude of Coors Field. Given the pitching environment and his low recent pitch count, it’s scary to trust Wood in cash games. That said, he does have some upside at only $6,400 on FanDuel; he struck out 11 batters in only five innings in his last start. He also benefits from home plate umpire Bill Miller, who has provided pitchers with a historical Plus/Minus of +2.30 on FanDuel.
Nate Karns: Karns has posted back-to-back performances of at least 49 fantasy points on FanDuel, and his Statcast data has been equally impressive. Over that time frame, he’s decreased his batted ball distance by 26 feet compared to his 12-month average, and he’s struck out 17 batters in only 12.1 innings.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, its easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. On the early slate, the highest-rated five-man stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Cleveland Indians, who currently lead the slate with an implied team total of five runs:
They’re slated to face Jose Berrios, who’s making his season debut today but had a slate-high WHIP of 1.948 last season. All five batters in the above stack are also on the positive side of their wOBA and ISO splits:
The batter in the best recent form is Lonnie Chisenhall, who has an average batted ball distance of 251 feet over the past 11 games. That represents a 37-foot increase compared to his 12-month average, and batters with comparable increases in similar high-total games have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.28 on DraftKings. Batting in the seventh spot (per the MLB Lineups page), he should be the lowest-owned of the top Cleveland batters, which makes him an appealing stacking option.
Switching to FanDuel for the main slate, the highest-rated four-man stack is a somewhat unique combination for the Los Angeles Dodgers:
That the Dodgers are the highest-rated stack isn’t necessarily surprising: They’re implied for 5.5 runs and playing at Coors Field. That the highest-rated stack omits some of their typical key players is a bit surprising. The stack focuses on a few guys who hit left-handed pitchers well; Franklin Gutierrez, Enrique Hernandez, and Austin Barnes all have ISO marks of at least .195 against southpaws.
Batters
Yonder Alonso may not be a household name, but his recent production is quite impressive:
He’s posted excellent batted ball numbers over his last 11 games – a 260-foot average batted ball distance, 58 percent fly ball rate, and 38 percent hard hit rate – and takes on a pitcher who has allowed a wOBA of .414 and an ISO of .347 over his last two starts.
Even though Coors is on the slate, today’s highest-implied team total actually belongs to the Diamondbacks at 5.6 runs. Jake Lamb has been somewhat disappointing lately, with an average DraftKings Plus/Minus of -1.09 over his last 10 games, but he is playing at home against a pedestrian righty in Trevor Williams. Lamb has crushed righties to the tune of a .375 wOBA and .288 ISO over the last 12 months, and Williams has allowed over 2.8 home runs per nine innings over that same time frame. Pitching at Chase Field shouldn’t help Williams in that department: Chase has the second-highest Plus/Minus for hitters over the last three seasons.
Mookie Betts has had a slow start to his season, but it looks like he’s starting to turn things around. He’s posted at least 24 fantasy points on DraftKings in three of his last five games, and he has posted impressive Statcast data over the last 15 days: He’s averaged a 243-foot batted ball distance, a 56 percent fly ball rate, and a 43 percent hard hit rate. The Red Sox are implied to score 4.6 runs today, which is less than teams like the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Rockies; Betts could possibly go underowned.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
