Saturday has a split slate: There are five games in the 1:10 pm ET early slate and 10 games in the 7:05 pm ET main slate. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
Studs
After last night’s mediocre group of pitchers, we have some studs back in the slate making their second starts of the season. Clayton Kershaw was his usual dominant self to begin the year, going seven innings, striking out eight batters, allowing just two hits, and scoring 52.0 FanDuel points. And today? He’s actually not the most expensive pitcher in the slate. Madison Bumgarner is ($12,500 on DraftKings and $11,900 on FanDuel). Kershaw is the second-most expensive pitcher on FanDuel at $10,400 but just the fourth-most expensive on DraftKings at $10,000:
Why? Well, Kershaw is unfortunately at Coors Field, and despite his brilliance this game is curently tied for the highest Vegas total on the slate. Respect is still being given to Kershaw — I mean, he’s still $10,000-plus on both sites and the Rockies are implied for ‘only’ 3.9 runs — but this is clearly not a great situation for a pitcher. How has Kershaw done in this situation before?
Per our Trends tool, he’s averaged 24.96 DraftKings points and has hit value in three of his four trips to Coors Field over the last four years. Other than a 5.55-point DraftKings outing in 2015, he’s gone for 26-plus fantasy points in the other three games:
There’s certainly no need to take the Kershaw risk in cash games given the other options, but he’s an elite tournament play given his probable diminished ownership.
Kershaw: DFS Scouting Report
Bumgarner will likely take up most of the cash ownership, even with his high price point: He’s at a pitcher’s park in San Diego, and in his first start he went for 28.15 DraftKings points thanks to 11 strikeouts over seven innings pitched. Bumgarner has the fourth-best past-year WHIP (1.012) and third-highest SO/9 rate (10.222) in the slate, and he’s the second-largest favorite of the day with a -194 moneyline — just behind Kershaw’s mark of -203 (mostly thanks to the elite Dodgers bats). If we make a trend based on the Giants’ moneyline odds and the Padres’ implied run total (2.9 runs, the lowest of the day) . . .
. . . we get a pretty enticing Plus/Minus.
Values
Dallas Keuchel was impressive in his first start, going for 43 FanDuel points against the Mariners. He’s not a strikeout guy — he’s averaging a 7.758 SO/9 rate over the past year — but he doesn’t need lots of strikeouts. In his first outing he allowed just two hits over seven innings and induced groundballs at a nice 72 percent clip. Batters averaged a miserable 163-foot batted ball distance against him, and while that number isn’t sustainable over a longer sample he’s still likely to be one of the best pitchers in the league in that regard: Among pitchers today with 20 appearances over the last year, he’s third with a batted ball distance allowed of just 192 feet. Only Kershaw (190) and Toronto righty Aaron Sanchez (191) have allowed lower batted ball distances. He’s a large favorite (-177 moneyline), and the opposing Royals are implied for just 3.2 runs — the second-lowest mark today. Historically, pitchers in his salary range — he’s $8,600 on FanDuel — with those marks have done quite well:
I mentioned Sanchez earlier: He’ll make his first start of the year after finishing 2016 strong, going for 48.0 and 57.0 FanDuel points over his last two games. He is great at inducing ground ball: Among pitchers with 20 appearances over the last 12 months, he ranked second behind only Keuchel with a 55 percent ground ball rate. He’s in a nice park today in Tampa and gets a Rays team implied for just 3.9 runs. Tampa Bay’s projected lineup has the slate’s fifth-worst past-year average wOBA of .287, and Sanchez still has some strikeout upside: His 6.6 K Prediction is just above average for the slate. He’s likely a tad overpriced compared to the other talented pitchers around him — it’s only $400 or $500 more to get up to Kyle Hendricks or Chris Archer, for example — but he should also go overlooked: He’s projected for 0-1 percent FanDuel ownership, which Pro subscribers can review in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
Fastballs
Yu Darvish: He has the highest SO/9 rate today (11.758) and third-highest K Prediction (7.8) behind Kershaw and Bumgarner. He had a poor outing in his first start of the year, allowing four earned runs in 6.1 innings, but that was against the high-powered Cleveland offense.
Chris Archer: He has a very high Park Factor of 90 at home in Tampa, and the opposing Blue Jays are implied for just 3.6 runs. He allowed a hard hit rate of just 26 percent in his first outing and finished with 40.0 FanDuel points despite striking out only five batters in seven innings.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Since we have a split slate, let’s do a stack for the early and main slates. Here’s the top-rated five-man DraftKings stack for the early slate, per the Bales Model:
The Cardinals are likely to be the most popular team of the slate: Their implied run total of 5.0 runs is currently 0.5 runs higher than that of any other team. This stack, though, could be a contrarian pivot from a 1-2-3-4-5 straight stack, as it skips over the cleanup and No. 5 hitters and goes to Randal Grichuk and Jedd Gyorko, who are some of the best power hitters on the roster despite their low spot in the order. Grichuk and Gyorko have ISO marks of .241 and .296 against right-handed pitchers, and early Statcast data suggests they’re hitting the ball well early this season: They have exit velocities of 94 and 96 MPH.
On the main slate, the top-rated four-man FanDuel stack belongs not to the Dodgers at Coors Field but actually to the Rangers:
And, again, we have a non-straight stack ranging from 1 to 7 in the order. These are the Rangers with the four highest ratings in the Bales Model, which likes them because three are lefties with excellent splits against right-handed pitchers and the other (Carlos Gomez) is only $2,900 on FanDuel and currently projected to bat leadoff for a team implied for 4.9 runs. Gomez has stolen base upside (1.151 SB/G), and his place at the top of the order is a big reason the Rangers own the highest FanDuel Team Value Rating (TVR) in the main slate at 87. They certainly have upside against Oakland starter Kendall Graveman, who allowed a miserable 243-foot average batted ball distance in his first start of the year.
Batters
Of course, we shouldn’t forget about the Dodgers, who are currently implied for a slate-high 5.7 runs at Coors Field. Corey Seager should be back in the lineup today versus righty Jon Gray, and he has excellent splits against RHP: He has a .407 wOBA, .232 ISO, and a .570 slugging percentage over the past year. He has been crushing the ball this season, averaging a batted ball distance of 250 feet and an exit velocity of 96 miles per hour. He definitely has immense upside, but he also should be chalky. Intriguingly enough, Gray has actually been better at Coors Field than away from it:
Among pitchers in the main slate, the Brewers’ Tommy Milone has the second-worst past-year HR/9 allowed at 2.018. That is unfortunate for him, as today he’ll have to match up against the defending World Series champs in the Cubs, who are currently implied for a whopping 4.9 runs. Kris Bryant crushes lefties — he has a .434 wOBA, .318 ISO, and a .630 slugging percentage over the last year — and he could be due for some fantasy regression soon. He has a Recent Batted Ball Luck of 70, which suggests he’s been making solid contact — and he has: He’s averaging a 229-foot batted ball distance this year — but it hasn’t translated into fantasy success so far. Against Milone, that could change in a hurry.
Bryce Harper went overlooked yesterday because of the Coors Field game, and he finished with a home run and 31.4 FanDuel points. If he comes with low ownership again, he’ll be an intriguing option in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), as he’s started the 2017 season making excellent contact. Per the Statcast data in our models, over the first four games he has averaged an exit velocity of 97 MPH and a batted ball distance of 240 feet. The Nationals are currently implied for ‘only’ 4.1 runs, and for that reason — plus the Coors game — Harper could carry single-digit ownership. I don’t have to tell you that Harper is a good candidate to go deep in any game.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
