Saturday has a split slate: There are five games in the 1:10 pm ET early slate and nine games in the 7:05 pm ET main slate. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
Studs
Of the 30 starting pitchers today, six of them have FanDuel price tags of $8,500 or higher:
Jake Arrieta and Carlos Carrasco have similar marks in a variety of metrics; it’s eerie:
| Arrieta | Carrasco | |
| FanDuel Salary | $10,900 | $10,300 |
| Opponent Implied Runs | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Moneyline | -177 | -190 |
| Exit Velocity Allowed (MPH) | 88 | 88 |
| Hard Hit Rate Allowed (%) | 27 | 26 |
| 2017 FanDuel Plus/Minus | +4.18 | +4.74 |
| Park Factor | 38 | 42 |
I’m sure you noticed the one metric I left out of the table: K Prediction.
You won’t have to choose between the two unless you’re playing the all-day slate — Arrieta plays at 1:10 pm and Carrasco in the main slate at 7:10 pm — but comparing and contrasting them as DFS assets in our Player Models and knowing why guys have higher ratings than others is an important exercise. So if Carrasco is popping in your models much more than Arrieta, who has elite marks in just about every category, it’s because Carrasco’s 7.2 K Prediction is 0.6 higher than Arrieta’s. Both guys can dominate their matchups, but strikeouts are incredibly important in DFS, and the White Sox rank eighth in strikeout rate this season (23.2 percent), whereas the Reds rank 26th (18.8 percent).
Jacob deGrom has a lower K Prediction at 6.5 and a tough matchup against a Nationals team implied for 3.5 runs and first in the league with a .347 team wOBA. deGrom was scheduled to start yesterday, but the Mets switched him and Matt Harvey due to deGrom’s stiff neck. The Nationals finished with four runs last night, including yet another Bryce Harper homer, and it’s interesting to compare deGrom’s Vegas data yesterday to today’s. Before he was scratched for Harvey, the Nationals were implied for a slate-low 3.0 runs. That moved up to 3.4 when Harvey was announced as the starter, and their total sits at 3.5 runs today. That is not an insignificant jump, and the only new data points we have are 1) the game last night and 2) the knowledge of deGrom’s neck. Having an opponent implied run total of 3.5 runs isn’t bad — that mark puts deGrom ahead of all pitchers other than Arrieta and Carrasco — but it’s hard not to think about yesterday’s marks. deGrom is a little cheaper on DraftKings, where his $9,900 price tag comes with a 66 percent Bargain Rating.
Values
Jameson Taillon is cheaper than the studs ($9,200 and $8,400 on DraftKings and FanDuel), but he matches them on the important data points. He is facing the Yankees, who are currently implied for just 3.6 runs despite ranking second in team wOBA (.340) this season, and he’s been excellent so far in 2017, averaging a +12.77 FanDuel Plus/Minus through three starts. Over his last two, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 190 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 21 percent, and a hard hit rate of 14 percent — all elite marks. There have been few FanDuel pitchers with comparable marks and salaries as cheap (per our Trends tool):
What is even more intriguing is that, although only 26 of 24,497 pitchers in our Trends database match this trend, we actually have two matches today — Taillon and also the Reds’ Cody Reed. He’s pitched only eight innings through four games in relief, but he’s been elite. It’s noteworthy if you’re targeting Cubs bats.
Back to Taillon: Not only is his Statcast data impressive, but he also has a high 86 Park Factor at home in Pittsburgh and an 8.1 K Prediction — the second-highest mark of the slate. Only 147 pitchers $8,500 or less have had a K Prediction of 8.0 or higher, and those pitchers have averaged 34.08 FanDuel points and a +6.64 Plus/Minus with a 66.7 percent Consistency Rating.
For that trend we also have two matches today — Taillon and the Dodgers’ Kenta Maeda, who has been really bad to start 2017:
Further, his Statcast data is concerning: Over the last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 231 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 46 percent. Those are not ideal marks, especially since one of those games came at Coors Field. He’s facing the Diamondbacks today, and while he’s not at Coors he’s unfortunately at Chase Field, which has proven to be the second-best hitter’s park in the league. To borrow data from yesterday’s breakdown, here are the top-three hitter-friendly parks over the last couple of years:
- Coors Field: 10.01 average DraftKings points for 1-5 batters, +1.8 Plus/Minus
- Chase Field: 8.88 average DraftKings points for 1-5 batters, +1.3 Plus/Minus
- Miller Park: 8.27 average DraftKings points for 1-5 batters, +0.7 Plus/Minus
The Diamondbacks are currently implied for 4.4 runs, partly because they scored four in four innings against Maeda exactly a week ago in his last start and also because they exploded for 13 runs last night. This game is supposed to be quite hot with a temperature of 88 degrees, and warm conditions have historically been beneficial for batters:
Now that I told you all the reasons not to play Maeda, here’s one reason to take a shot on him in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs): He leads all pitchers today with an 8.2 K Prediction. He has not done much historically with high K Predictions . . .
. . . but it’s a small sample, and he will likely have low ownership, which Pro subscribers can review in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
Fastballs
Michael Pineda: He has a high 7.7 K Prediction and is actually at a pitcher’s park in Pittsburgh; he’s allowed a low 25 percent hard hit rate over his last two starts and faces a Pirates team currently implied for just 3.5 runs.
Robbie Ray: He’s the Maeda who has actually been good recently, as evidenced by his +15.26 FanDuel Plus/Minus through three starts; the opposing Dodgers are currently implied for 4.7 runs, but he has a high 7.7 K Prediction and should be low-owned in this hot game.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Let’s do a five-man DraftKings stack for the early slate and then a four-man FanDuel stack for the main slate. We’ll generate stacks using player ratings from the Bales Model, as usual:
The highest-rated DraftKings stack belongs to the Twins, who are currently implied for 4.6 runs — the second-highest mark in the main slate behind the Tigers’ 5.o. The Twins’ first three batters — Brian Dozier, Jorge Polanco, and Miguel Sano — all boast ISOs higher than .200 against left-handed pitchers. Sano continues to torch the ball in 2017: Over the last 10 games, he’s averaged an exit velocity of 96 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 56 percent. He will likely be one of the most popular options in the early slate.
The main slate includes a game at Coors Field, so it should not surprise you that the highest-rated four-man stack belongs to the Rockies:
They are currently implied for a slate-high 5.4 runs against Giants lefty Matt Moore, who at home a week ago allowed 10 hits and five earned runs in 5.2 innings against these very Rockies. AT&T Park is the best pitcher’s park in the league and Coors Field is the worst. Things could get ugly for Moore. That said, the same weather dynamic that existed yesterday holds true today: The game in Colorado is currently projected to be played at 51 degrees at first pitch; Chase Field is certainly a hitter’s park and it’s supposed to be 88 degrees at first pitch. The Rockies and Giants lineups have the highest Vegas run totals of the slate, but Chase provides a nice pivot option in tournaments at likely lower ownership levels.
Batters
The St. Louis Cardinals continue to intrigue because their traditional batting metrics are so far off from their Statcast data as a team. On the season, they rank 26th in team wOBA (.288) and 22nd in team ISO (.139). However, many of their players have been crushing the ball of late: Matt Carpenter and Stephen Piscotty, for example, have averaged exit velocities of 93 and 94 miles per hour over the last 12 games. They haven’t scored many fantasy points either individually or as a team, and that’s reflected in their Recent Batted Ball Luck data. Here’s the definition of that new metric:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
A lot of teams have a guy who has been a little unlucky of late. The Cardinals have a whole lineup of them:
Someday, regression of some sort will occur.
A good way to find contrarian bats with upside is to take the studs when they have negative splits. Take Giancarlo Stanton, who is going against a right-handed pitcher today in Jered Weaver. While Stanton is better against left-handed pitchers than he is against righties, it’s not as if he’s poor against either one: Over the last year, he has an elite .235 ISO against RHP. Our Trends tool is a great way to find edges like this: Stanton has superior marks against lefties, but he’s owned at a much lower rate against righties — and he still has a ton of upside on the negative side of his splits:
Also, Weaver has the highest HR/9 allowed of all main slate pitchers today.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
