The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a split slate. The 10-game early slate and 15-game all-day slate begin at 2:10 p.m. ET, and the four-game main slate starts at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Throughout various slate’s on FanDuel, there are three pitchers that cost $10,000 or more:
On the main slate, Jacob deGrom checks in with the slate’s highest salary. deGrom has been outstanding this season: Only Max Scherzer owns a higher Wins Above Replacement (WAR), and deGrom boasts a league-best 1.51 earned run average (ERA), per FanGraphs. It’s an underwhelming matchup for deGrom as the Dodgers have a projected lineup with a 23.3% strikeout rate and .338 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against righties over the past 12 months, and the team ranks eighth this season in splits-adjusted Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+).
However, the Dodgers are still implied for just 3.2 runs, and the Mets are solid -141 moneyline favorites. deGrom sports an excellent 8.0 K Prediction and owns some of the best Statcast data on the day with his 185-foot batted-ball average distance, 88-mph exit velocity and 28% hard-hit rate. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have been strong investments on FanDuel (per our Trends tool):
If you’re playing the all-day slate, Trevor Bauer will be at your disposal. Bauer has been great over his past 10 starts, averaging a +14.72 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 90% Consistency Rating. The Tigers rank just 24th in wRC+ against righties this season, and their projected lineup owns a low .317 wOBA against them over the past year. Even though the projected Tigers lineup has a mediocre strikeout rate over the past 12 months (22.9%), Bauer flaunts an excellent 7.3 K Prediction. The Indians have favorable Vegas data as -260 moneyline favorites, and the Tigers are implied for a paltry 3.2 runs. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Prediction and Vegas data have historically averaged a +4.75 FanDuel Plus/MInus with 62.5% Consistency.
Clayton Kershaw (back) is making his first start since coming off the 10-day DL. Kershaw is likely a risky play considering he was supposed to be making a Triple-A rehab start on Saturday, but he’s instead back in the rotation for the Dodgers. In his limited action this season, Kershaw is averaging a pitiful -0.96 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 38% Consistency.
He’s currently sitting with an 8.5 K Prediction and has a favorable matchup against a Mets team that ranks dead last in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this season, but Kershaw is difficult to trust when you factor in his form and injuries (back and biceps). It’s also unlikely he’ll pitch deep into this game. The Mets own a middling 3.8-run implied total, but the Dodgers are still +130 moneyline road underdogs. Kershaw could be a GPP target, but he probably doesn’t possess enough upside considering his overall situation.
Values
Sonny Gray has an 89% Bargain Rating on DraftKings along with a favorable matchup against the Rays. Their projected lineup owns a high 27.4% strikeout rate and weak .312 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. Gray has been sporadic this season, but he comes into this game in great batted-ball form with a 179-foot average distance and 88-mph exit velocity. It also doesn’t hurt that the opposing Rays are implied for a woeful 3.5 runs and that the Yankees check in as -166 moneyline favorites.
Andrew Suarez boasts a 75% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and has an excellent matchup against a projected Padres lineup with a 27.3% strikeout rate and .308 wOBA against left-handed pitchers over the past year. Suarez has a respectable 6.0 K Prediction and favorable Vegas data, as the Padres are implied for 3.6 runs and the Giants are -155 moneyline favorites. The main concern with Suarez is that he has a 94-mph exit velocity and 46% hard-hit rate over his past three starts.
Fastballs
Aaron Nola: He will likely have low ownership in a matchup against the Nationals, and Nola has historically struggled on the road throughout his career:
Even so, he has a few factors in his favor, which Joe Holka touches on in today’s “Three Key Players” piece.
Lance McCullers: He fits into the stud category in DraftKings pricing, but McCullers has a $9,200 price tag on FanDuel and an 85% Bargain Rating. He and deGrom will likely be the two highest-owned main-slate pitchers with just four games available. His upside is questionable against a projected Royals lineup that has a meager 21.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, giving McCullers a 5.7 K Prediction, but their projected lineup also has a low .288 wOBA, and they rank 28th in wRC+ against righties this season. The Astros are massive -321 moneyline favorites, and the Royals are implied for just 3.0 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have averaged an excellent +4.33 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 60.7% Consistency.
Julio Teheran could be in consideration with a favorable matchup against the Orioles. Over the past year, their projected lineup has a woeful 29.4% strikeout rate and .272 wOBA against righties. Teheran also has a solid 7.4 K Prediction, and the Braves are -115 moneyline favorites. However, Teheran is a volatile option: He’s sporting a 53% Consistency Rating this season, and the Orioles are implied for 4.2 runs.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top early-slate five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Rockies, who are implied for 6.6 runs:
It’s a favorable spot for the Rockies, as their 6.6-run implied total is the highest on the early slate by 1.4 runs. Gerardo Parra is on the positive side of his wOBA and isolated power (ISO) splits against the righty Trevor Richards. Parras is sporting an excellent .353 wOBA and .139 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. He also enters this game in great form with a 220-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 48% hard-hit rate. Coors Field owns a Park Factor of 100 and Weather Rating in the 90th percentile. Historically, hitters with comparable conditions at Coors have averaged a +1.89 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 50% Consistency.
The top four-man main-slate stack in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Astros, who are implied for 5.3 runs:
The Astros are in an elite spot against Ian Kennedy, who is allowing a massive 241-foot average distance and 94-mph exit velocity over the past 15 days. Meanwhile, Jose Altuve is sporting a 236-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 40% hard-hit rate. He also smashes righties, possessing an elite .421 wOBA and .200 ISO against them over the past year. Altuve will look to build upon his average +5.38 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 70% Consistency over his past 10 games. Alex Bregman is also obliterating the baseball, posting positive 15-day/12-month differentials in average distance (+44-feet), exit velocity (+5-mph) and hard-hit rate (+22-percentage points). The Astros will likely be a chalk stack on a small slate.
Other Batters
The Red Sox also figure to be chalky in the evening since they have the slate’s highest implied run total (5.4) against Mike Leake. Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and J.D. Martinez all own elite wOBA and ISO numbers against right-handed pitchers over the past year:
All three hitters are in solid batted-ball form over the past 15 days, boasting average distances exceeding 227 feet and exit velocities of at least 90 mph. Historically, hitters with comparable implied totals and lineup spots have averaged a +2.14 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Brandon Belt is a progression candidate with his +50 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) on FanDuel. He has an elite .407 wOBA and .266 ISO against righties over the past year, and he’s been crushing the ball over his past seven games with a 236-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 42% hard-hit rate.
Lewis Brinson is smashing the baseball over his past 13 games with a 95-mph exit velocity and 56% hard-hit rate. He’s also been unlucky of late as evidenced by his +36 RBBL on DraftKings. Brinson is at Coors Field, where the Marlins are implied for 5.0 runs. Hitters with comparable batted-ball metrics at Coors Field have historically averaged a +2.45 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 52% Consistency.
The Twins are a fantastic source of value on the early slate, and their projected top-five hitters possess solid wOBA and ISO numbers against righties over the past 12 months:
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Jose Altuve
Photo credit: Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports
