The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a split slate: There’s a seven-game early slate at 2:10 p.m. ET and an eight-game main slate at 7:15 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slates feature three pitchers who stand out above the rest:
Justin Verlander is the highest-priced pitcher today and has been an absolute monster to start the season on FanDuel:
Unfortunately, he has a brutal matchup against the Boston Red Sox, who have had the second-highest scoring offense to start the season. They’ve been particular strong against right-handed pitchers, boasting a league-best .354 wOBA and .218 ISO. That said, he still has arguably the best Vegas data on the slate, leading all pitchers in both opponent implied team total (3.3 runs) and moneyline odds (-172).
Verlander’s Statcast data from his past two starts is also strong with a 207-foot average distance, 86-mph exit velocity, and 19% hard-hit rate, all three of which represent decreases when compared to his 12-month averages and the latter two of which are among the best marks on the slate. The one area where Verlander doesn’t excel today is his strikeout upside. The projected Red Sox lineup has struck out in just 21.1% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Verlander has a somewhat mediocre K Prediction of 7.1.
As good as Verlander has been to start the season, Jacob deGrom has arguably been better. He owns a league-best 1.52 ERA through his first 65.1 innings and has increased his K/9 to a career-high 11.71. He has only four wins, but that has more to do with the fact that the Mets bullpen has been an absolute disaster this season. Only Max Scherzer has accumulated more Wins Above Replacement than deGrom among NL pitchers in 2018 (per FanGraphs).
Like Verlander, deGrom has a difficult matchup. He’s taking on the Chicago Cubs, whose projected lineup has posted a .341 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months. The Cubs are implied for 3.7 runs, and (unlike Verlander) deGrom doesn’t have a potent offense to support him, so his -117 moneyline odds are lower than usual for a pitcher of his caliber. The weather could also be a factor in New York, where the current forecast calls for a 31% chance of precipitation at game time.
Trevor Bauer is the wildcard among today’s pitchers. He’s been dominant of late, owning an average Plus/Minus of +12.27 on FanDuel over his past 10 starts. However, the Statcast data from his past two starts is concerning. He’s allowed an average distance of 243 feet, which represents an increase of +38 compared to his 12-month average. FantasyLabs has a proprietary metric called Recent Batted Ball Luck, which measures the difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted-ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days. Bauer’s mark of -90 suggests that he’s lately been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball and could be due for some regression. That said, he still might be worth considering for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) on FanDuel, where his $10,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Values
Masahiro Tanaka has arguably the most intriguing combination of Vegas data, strikeout upside, and recent batted-ball profile of any pitcher today. He has an excellent matchup vs. the Baltimore Orioles, who have been the second-lowest scoring team to begin the season. Tanaka is tied with Verlander for the top mark on the slate with -172 moneyline odds, and the projected Orioles lineup has also whiffed in 27.3% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, giving Tanaka a K Prediction of 7.6.
Tanaka’s recent Statcast data really stands out. He’s allowed an average distance of just 167 feet over his past two starts, which is a decrease of -37 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable distance differentials, K Predictions, and moneyline odds have been among the best investments in daily fantasy baseball (per our Trends tool):
Tanaka is also significantly cheaper than the top pitching options on the slate, so he’ll likely be popular in all formats.
Garrett Richards was extremely disappointing in his last outing, allowing three earned runs before ultimately getting yanked after just 2.1 innings pitched. However, he’s affordable at just $7,100 on DraftKings and has excellent marks in both opponent implied team total (3.5 runs) and moneyline odds (-171). He’s also proved to be an excellent strikeout pitcher in the past, recording a K/9 of 10.07 over the past year. He has upside against a Rangers team that has the third-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season.
Fastballs
Chad Kuhl: The pitching options on the early slate are limited outside of Bauer and Tanaka, which could make someone like Kuhl an interesting option. He’s taking on the St. Louis Cardinals, and their projected lineup has posted a 28.2% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Kuhl also has solid Statcast differentials over his past two starts.
Zack Greinke: He has arguably the most strikeout upside among today’s starters vs. the Miami Marlins. Their projected lineup has struck out in 28.4% of at-bats against righties over the past 12 months, and Greinke has posted a K/9 of 9.42 over the same time. The only thing holding Greinke back from being considered among today’s top pitchers is his recent Statcast data, particularly his distance differential of +17 feet.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Oakland A’s:
The A’s exploded for 16 runs on Friday, beating up on beleaguered Royals right-hander Ian Kennedy. They have another exploitable matchup today against right-hander Jason Hammel, who has a 5.23 ERA to begin the season. The A’s are implied for 5.0 runs, which is tied with two other teams for the second-highest mark on the slate.
Matt Olson exploded for two home runs on Friday and will likely be popular. He’s destroyed right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .413 wOBA and .342 ISO. Projected leadoff hitter Matt Joyce is also intriguing. He’s hit righties to the tune of a .368 wOBA and .257 ISO, and his $3,100 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 70%.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers face the Rockies at Coors Field, which will likely make them one of the highest-owned stacks on the slate. Their implied team total of 5.6 runs is the top mark by a significant margin, and they have a nice matchup against right-handed pitcher German Marquez, who this season has been absolutely dreadful at home, where he owns a 7.54 ERA and has allowed an average wOBA of .401.
The stacked batters for the Dodgers are all on the positive side of their batting splits, and each has a Bargain Rating of at least 86% on FanDuel.
Other Batters
Catcher is one of the most popular positions to punt, which makes Rafael Lopez interesting. He’s priced at the dead minimum on FanDuel and has an appealing matchup against Reds right-hander Matt Harvey. Lopez has posted a .318 wOBA and .218 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Harvey owns a dreadful 5.63 ERA to start the season.
Matt Carpenter is expected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Cardinals on the early slate and has excellent Statcast data over the past 15 days with an average distance of 249 feet, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 57%, all of which represent an increase when compared to his 12-month averages. He’s also on the positive side of his batting splits against Kuhl with a .370 wOBA and .234 ISO against righties over the past year.
Aaron Altherr is priced at just $2,900 on DraftKings and projected to occupy the No. 2 spot in the lineup against the San Francisco Giants. He’s on the positive side of his batting splits against left-hander Andrew Suarez, who has posted a HR/9 of 1.74 over the past 12 months. He could be a nice option for those looking to stack Coors.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Joc Pederson (left) and Yasiel Puig (right)
Photo credit: Richard Mackson-USA Today Sports
