The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday is a great day for daily fantasy baseball: Both FanDuel and DraftKings offer three slates: There’s a three-game early slate at 1:05 p.m. ET, an eight-game afternoon slate at 4:05 p.m. ET, and a four-game main slate at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Given that all 30 teams are in action today, it’s not surprising that there is a bunch of strong pitching options. Four starters own salaries of at least $12,200 on DraftKings:
Max Scherzer has won each of the past two NL Cy Young awards, but he’s putting together arguably the best season of his career in 2018. He owns a sparkling ERA of 2.00 and a K/9 rate of 13.50 through his first 14 starts, and he leads all pitchers on FanGraphs in WAR. Unsurprisingly, he’s posted dominant results over his past 10 starts on DraftKings:
He appears to be in another great spot today against the Toronto Blue Jays, who own the lowest implied team total of the day (3.3 runs). Scherzer is also a substantial favorite with the second-highest moneyline odds at -212.
Scherzer also has substantial strikeout upside. The Blue Jays have the ninth-highest strikeout rate this season against right-handed pitchers, giving Scherzer an elite K Prediction of 10.7. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have been among the best possible investments in daily fantasy baseball (per the Trends tool):
Scherzer also enters this contest in strong Statcast form, limiting his past two opponents to an average distance of 190 feet, an exit velocity of 87 miles per hour and a hard-hit rate of 29%. He’s going to be tough to avoid on the afternoon slate.
Luis Severino could be equally popular on the early slate against the futile Tampa Bay Rays. They have the seventh-lowest scoring offense to begin the season, averaging just 4.08 runs per game, and their projected lineup owns a splits-adjusted strikeout rate of 27.4%. He will likely be a massive favorite (there’s no line posted at the time of writing), and his $11,000 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Carlos Carrasco has been fantastic over his past two starts, totaling 21 strikeouts while allowing just one earned run over 14 innings pitched. However, he faces a stiff test today against the Minnesota Twins, who roughed up Corey Kluber for four earned runs in just five innings. Their projected lineup has posted a .320 wOBA and strikeout rate of just 22.3% against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Carrasco scored -5.75 DraftKings points against the Twins just two weeks ago. Vegas is still showing Carrasco respect — he has an opponent implied run total of 3.5 and moneyline odds of -205 — but he ranks clearly behind Scherzer on the afternoon slate.
Patrick Corbin is the only ace available on the main slate, and he’s been priced up to $12,200 on DraftKings. While that’s certainly high for Corbin — he has a 3.21 ERA in 2018 — it could be warranted against the hapless New York Mets. They have been so bad against left-handed pitchers this season that their splits-adjusted .257 wOBA is the worst mark in the league by more than 30 percentage points. They have also posted the second-highest strikeout rate against lefties at 26.4%.
Unsurprisingly, Corbin has excellent data in this matchup. He leads all pitchers on the main slate in both moneyline odds (-153) and K Prediction (8.1), and his opponent implied run total (3.6) ranks second. He should be popular with an ownership projection of 31-35% on FanDuel and greater than 40% on DraftKings.
Values
Sean Newcomb was roughed up in his most recent outing but is still putting together an excellent sophomore campaign. He’s posted an ERA of 2.92 and K/9 of 9.00 and has held opponents to a .248 wOBA since the start of May. He has a nice matchup vs. the San Diego Padres, whose projected lineup has struck out in 28.8% of at-bats vs. left-handers over the past 12 months. They are currently implied for just 3.6 runs, and Newcomb is also a substantial -185 favorite.
Junior Guerra is another pitcher enjoying success this year with a 2.71 ERA through his first 12 starts. He hasn’t been piling up the strikeouts, resulting in a K/9 of only 8.14, but he has more upside than usual today against the Philadelphia Phillies. They’ve posted the highest strikeout rate in the league this season against right-handed pitchers, and Guerra’s K Prediction of 7.0 trails only Scherzer’s and Carrasco’s on the afternoon slate. He’s also a -131 favorite and has posted a distance differential of -4 feet over his past two starts.
Fastballs
Alex Wood and Madison Bumgarner: These two former aces are squaring off tonight in Los Angeles, and both are looking to recapture some of their former glory. Wood has consistently allowed some of the worst contact in the league this season, including a 97-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate over his past two starts, but he does lead all pitchers on the main slate with an opponent implied run total of 3.5. Bumgarner’s Statcast data hasn’t been nearly as problematic, but he’s shown an inability to miss bats since returning from injury. Both warrant attention given the limited options on the four-game slate, but neither deserves to be treated as he has been in the past.
Dallas Keuchel: The pitching options on the early slate are awful outside of Severino, which increases the appeal for Keuchel. He has virtually no strikeout upside against the Royals — their projected lineup has a splits-adjusted K rate of just 20.2% over the past 12 months — but Keuchel has strong marks in both opponent implied run total (3.8) and moneyline odds (-196).
Ryan Yarborough: He’s not listed in our MLB Models, but Yarborough deserves consideration on the early slate. He’s expected to pitch the majority of the innings behind nominal starter Ryne Stanek and has posted solid marks across the board in 2018. He could also have low ownership given that he’s going to come out of the bullpen.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the afternoon slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Texas Rangers:
The Rangers’ implied team total of 5.3 runs is tied for first, and they collectively enter this contest in excellent form. All five of the stacked batters have posted distance differentials of at least +11 feet over the past 15 days:
They will likely be one of the most popular teams to target on the afternoon slate, but stacking them in the above 1-3-4-7-9 manner should increase your chances of having a contrarian lineup. Opposing pitcher Kyle Freeland has posted strong results in his past two outings, but that belies some concerning Statcast data. He’s allowed opposing batters to post a distance of 228 feet, exit velocity of 94 mph and hard-hit rate of 45%, all of which are higher than his 12-month averages.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
They’re facing Mariners left-hander Wade LeBlanc. The Sox haven’t crushed left-handed pitching this year, but they did score six runs off left-hander James Paxton on Friday, and their projected lineup has posted a .337 wOBA against southpaws over the past 12 months. They could be starting to show some signs of progression.
LeBlanc has also been dreadful in his past two starts, allowing an average distance of 241 feet and fly-ball rate of 50%. That could spell trouble against Mookie Betts, who has crushed pitchers with comparable recent Statcast data this season:
Other Batters
The Rockies are tied with the Rangers for the highest implied team total on the afternoon slate against left-hander Mike Minor. That puts Trevor Story squarely on the DFS radar given his .407 wOBA and .312 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months. He enters the game in excellent recent form, owning an average distance of 248 feet and hard-hit rate of 50% over his past 12 contests.
Lewis Brinson has had a rough start to his MLB career but is starting to show signs of life at the plate. The Statcast data from his past 12 games is ridiculous with a 253-foot distance, 99-mph exit velocity and 64% hard-hit rate. He has a dream matchup today against Orioles right-hander Alex Cobb, who has pitched to a 7.23 ERA to begin the 2018 season.
Marwin Gonzalez likely won’t garner a ton of attention on the early slate as a No. 7 hitter, but he leads all players with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings. Historically, batters in the bottom third of the order have still provided value with a comparable number of Pro Trends, averaging a Plus/Minus of +1.34 at just 4.2% ownership.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Max Scherzer
Photo credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA Today Sports
