The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a 10-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Pitchers
Studs
There are just two pitchers priced $9,000 or higher on FanDuel:
Charlie Morton headlines the top-priced pitching options. With Morton pitching opposite of Zach Greinke, the Astros are just -120 moneyline favorites. The main concern with Morton is that the Diamondbacks own an implied total of 4.1 runs and boast a .335 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against righties over the past 12 months. However, there are plenty of reasons to like Morton. For starters, he owns a 7.7 K Prediction along with some of the best recent batted-ball data on the slate. His 166-foot recent average distance, 82-mph exit velocity, and 18% hard-hit rate have historically led to an exceptional +4.57 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Greinke will be tested against an Astros team that owns just a 15.7% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months. Consequently, Greinkie has a low 5.9 K Prediction. Further, the Diamondbacks are +111 moneyline underdogs, as the Astors are implied for 4.5 runs. Overall, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas odds haven’t fared well (per our Trends tool):
Values
Kenta Maeda checks in with a 99% Bargain Rating on FanDuel against the Padres. The Dodgers are the largest favorites on the slate (-202 moneyline odds), as the Padres are implied for a slate-low 3.5 runs. The issue with Maeda is that he doesn’t pitch very deep into games, so you’ll need him to be efficient with the innings he is given. That said, he does own a 7.3 K Prediction in a favorable matchup. Historically, Maeda has been serviceable when pitching in games with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions:
Eduardo Rodriguez got roughed up in his last outing against the Royals, who don’t strike out often. That’s not the case with the Rangers, whose projected lineup owns a 28.8% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Overall, it’s a decent spot for Rodriquez: He has a 7.5 K Prediction, and the Red Sox are -150 moneyline favorites. Further, he also has decent short-term batted ball data with a 199-foot average distance and 88-mph exit velocity. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have averaged a +3.05 Plus/Minus.
Trevor Cahill and the A’s are sizeable -150 moneyline favorites against the Orioles, whose projected lineup has a high 27.8% strikeout rate and .313 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Overall, it’s an OK spot for Cahill, who owns a 6.4 K Prediction and opponent implied total of just 3.8 runs. It’s also a favorable park for Cahill, as Oakland Alameda Coliseum has a Park Factor of 80. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions, salaries and Vegas data have averaged a +2.10 Plus/Minus.
Fastballs
Tyler Mahle: Owns a +8.02 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 75% Consistency this season and is sporting a 6.7 K Prediction against a projected Marlins lineup that has a 27.7% strikeout rate and .279 wOBA over the past 12 months against righties. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data (-120 moneyline odds) have historically averaged a +1.51 Plus/Minus. That said, Mahle’s primary concern is the atrocious batted-ball data over his past two games (236-foot average distance and 95-mph exit velocity).
Caleb Smith: Has an 11.61 SO/9 over the past 12 months and has struck out 19 batters over his past two games, but is now facing a Reds team whose projected lineup has a strikeout rate of just 20.5% against lefties over the past 12 months. Smith is nothing more than a GPP punt option, as the Reds are implied for 4.7 runs.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Reds:
Adam Duvall was already covered in today’s Three Key MLB Players, so I’ll highlight other hitters. Joey Votto hits lefties well with a .400 wOBA and .212 ISO over the past 12 months, and he’ll have the benefit of swinging in a hitter-friendly venue, as Great American Ballpark has a Park Factor of 61. Further, Votto has excellent recent batted-ball data with a 240-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity, and 55% hard-hit rate. His Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) of +40 also suggests that Votto has been unlucky in the short term. Historically, hitters with comparable batted-ball data and implied team totals have averaged a +1.13 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Eugenio Suarez has been on of late, and he boasts a .376 wOBA and .222 ISO against lefties over the past year. His recent batted-ball data is top notch, as he owns a recent average distance of 246 feet and exit velocity of 97 mph.
The top four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Dodgers, who are implied for 5.1 runs:
The Dodgers will take on Padres righty Bryan Mitchell, and Cody Bellinger has crushed righties over the past 12 months with a .394 wOBA and .301 ISO. He’s discussed further in Three Key MLB Players. Joc Pederson is projected to hit from the No. 2 spot, and he will be on the positive side of his wOBA, and ISO splits with a .349 wOBA and .208 ISO against righties over the past year. At $2,200 on FanDuel, Pederson is a great value with a 99% Bargain Rating. Chris Taylor also smashes righties, as evidenced by his .352 wOBA and .200 ISO. There must be something in the water in Los Angeles, as Talyor’s recent average distance of 234 feet and exit velocity of 94 mph are sublime.
Other Batters
Lucas Duda will take on Tigers right-hander Jordan Zimmerman, who owns some awful recent batted-ball data with a 94-mph exit velocity and 46% hard-hit rate. Duda has pummeled righties with his .353 wOBA and .264 ISO. He’s a solid value with an 82% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. The Royals are also implied for an exceptional 5.2 runs. You can also throw Mike Moustakas into this conversation with his .364 wOBA and .275 ISO.
There is no Vegas data for the White Sox game yet, but Yoan Moncada will take on Lance Lynn, who has allowed five or more earned runs in his past three starts. The switch-hitting second baseman will be on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO splits against Lynn, as he owns a .382 wOBA and .261 ISO over the past 12 months. Further, Moncada has been obliterating the baseball lately with a 231-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity, and 53% hard-hit rate. Hitters with comparable batted-ball data have averaged a +1.89 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Trevor Story could be an intriguing tournament play, as the Rockies are implied for 3.9 runs, but Story owns a .380 wOBA and .266 ISO against lefties. Further, he’s sporting positive differentials in recent distance (+9 feet), exit velocity (+3 mph), and hard-hit rate (+12-percentage points). Hitters with comparable data have averaged a +1.01 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Over his past 10 games, Mookie Betts is sporting an absurd +7.70 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with 50% Consistency. Cole Hamels has allowed a fair amount of hard contact over his past two starts with a 97-mph exit velocity and 63% hard-hit rate. Leadoff men against pitchers with comparable batted-ball data have historically averaged an astounding +3.26 FanDuel Plus/Minus. It’s a fantastic matchup for Betts, who owns a .462 wOBA and .321 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months. J.D. Martinez will also be on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO splits:
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
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Pictured above: Chris Taylor
Photo Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
