The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a 15-game all-day slate at 1:07 p.m. ET with four- and five-game early slates at the same time on FanDuel and DraftKings. The 11-game main slate starts at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Throughout the various slates on FanDuel, there are four pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
Max Scherzer has been dominant this season, averaging a +17.36 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 89% Consistency. Overall, he has a fairly neutral matchup, as the projected Dodgers lineup has a 23.9% strikeout rate and .321 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against righties over the past 12 months. The Dodgers also rank 11th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers this season (FanGraphs). For Scherzer’s standards, his opponent implied run total is on the higher side (4.0), and the Nationals are just -135 moneyline favorites, but Scherzer has still fared well in the past under similar circumstances (per our Trends tool):
Joe Holka discusses Scherzer further in today’s Three Key MLB Players.
We may have a pitchers’ duel in Houston, as Corey Kluber will start for Cleveland opposite of Dallas Keuchel. Even though the game has a low over/under of 7.0 runs and the Astros are implied for just 3.6 runs, the Indians are slight underdogs (+101 moneyline). Kluber has a tall task ahead of him, as the projected Astros lineup has a 20% strikeout rate and excellent .342 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. Even so, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions (8.1), and Vegas data have provided good value at moderate FanDuel ownership:
Luis Severino is one of the heaviest favorites on the day (-236 moneyline) against a Royals team that ranks 22nd in wRC+ against righties this season. Facing a projected Royals lineup that has struck out at a 19.9% rate over the past year, Severino owns a respectable 7.1 K Prediction. Overall, he’s in an excellent spot, as the Royals are implied for just 3.3 runs. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have historically averaged a robust +7.66 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 70% Consistency.
Patrick Corbin rounds out the high-end pitchers. He’s facing a Mets team that ranks last in wRC+ against lefties this season. Corbin has the second-highest K Prediction (8.9) on the slate. The Diamondbacks aren’t large favorites with -120 odds, but the Mets are implied for just 3.4 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have averaged a +5.52 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 65.7% Consistency.
Values
On Friday afternoon, the Braves decided to push Sean Newcomb‘s start to Saturday. He’s more of value on FanDuel, where he sports a 98% Bargain Rating. Newcomb’s 10.11 SO/9 over the past 12 months is terrific, and he enters this game with some of the best recent batted-ball data on the slate, sporting a 180-foot average distance, 88-mph exit velocity, and 19% hard-hit rate. The primary issue with Newcomb is that he can get into trouble with walks (1.46 WHIP over the past 12 months). That said, he has a favorable matchup against a projected Marlins lineup that owns a 26.3% strikeout rate and .282 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. The Braves are the fifth-largest favorite on the slate (-174 moneyline), and the Marlins are implied for just 3.7 runs.
James Paxton owns a 99% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he’s $1,000-$2,000 cheaper than the top-priced guys. Overall, the Mariners have the most favorable Vegas data on the slate (-240 moneyline favorites), and the Tigers are implied for just 2.9 runs. The projected Tigers lineup doesn’t strike out too often against lefties (23.3% strikeout rate over the past 12 months), but Paxton still owns a solid 6.9 K Prediction. Paxton will likely be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate, as he has the right combination of value, floor, and upside.
A potential punt SP2 option on DraftKings, Steve Matz costs $6,000 and is facing a projected Diamondbacks lineup with a 27.4% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months and an implied total of just 3.7 runs. The Mets are only slight underdogs (+113), and they have the benefit of being at home.
Fastballs
Rick Porcello: Has a matchup against a projected Orioles lineup that owns a 27.4% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months. The Red Sox are solid -185 moneyline favorites, but Porcello’s 5.9 K Prediction is underwhelming. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have historically averaged a +1.29 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Dallas Keuchel: Has a tough draw against an Indians lineup with a .328 wOBA and 22% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months. However, the Astros are slight favorites (-109 moneyline odds), and the Indians are implied for just 3.5 runs. Keuchel has allowed a stellar recent average distance of just 189 feet.
Andrew Heany: Has a respectable 6.6 K Prediction against the Rays and is a heavy favorite (-180 moneyline odds). He’s in a favorable spot as the Rays are implied for just 3.6 runs. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have historically averaged a +2.75 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model for the early slate belongs to the Cardinals, who are implied for 4.6 runs:
Jose Martinez enters this game sporting positive differentials in average distance (+16 feet), exit velocity (+2 mph), and hard-hit rate (+4 percentage points). He’s also been playing better than his short-term fantasy production indicates, as evidenced by his +42 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL). Historically, hitters with comparable differentials, RBBLs, and implied run totals have averaged a +1.57 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
One of the top four-man main-slate FanDuel stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Angels, who are implied for 5.0 runs. The Angels own an excellent Team Value Rating of 90:
Mike Trout has crushed righties over the past 12 months, boasting an elite .447 wOBA and .321 ISO. Along with Trout, Luis Valbuena and Zack Cozart have ISOs above .200 against righties. Cozart enters this game with some of the best recent batted-ball data among third basemen with a 238-foot average distance and 42% hard-hit rate. Further, his +39 RBBL suggests that he’s lately been unlucky with his fantasy production. Progression could be headed his way.
Other Batters
On the early slate, Matt Olson has a matchup with a right-handed pitcher for the third day in a row. Olson boasts an elite .427 wOBA and .369 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. His recent batted-ball data is some of the best on the slate, as Olson owns a 254-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity, and 57% hard-hit rate. He’s in an excellent spot, as the A’s are implied for 5.0 runs.
Anthony Rendon will take on struggling Dodgers pitcher Rich Hill. Rendon has smashed lefties over the past 12 months with a .435 wOBA and .304 ISO. Meanwhile, Hill has allowed a .425 wOBA and .293 ISO over his past two starts. Further, Rendon has obliterated the baseball recently with a 252-foot average distance, 98-mph exit velocity, and 64% hard-hit rate. Historically, hitters with comparable metrics and implied run totals (4.6) have averaged a +2.08 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Over his past two starts, Tigers pitcher Mike Fiers has allowed an average distance of 245 feet with an exit velocity of 95 mph. Kyle Seager boasts an average distance of 238 feet and exit velocity of 95 mph to go along with his .332 wOBA and .226 ISO against righties over the past 12 months.
If you have the salary, Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez each own an elite wOBA and ISO against righties over the past 12 months even though they’re on the negative side of their splits. Further, Betts and Martinez both flaunt 50% Consistency Ratings over their past 10 games. The Red Sox are implied for 5.2 runs against Orioles pitcher Dylan Bundy, who has allowed an absurd .456 wOBA and .275 ISO to hitters over this past two starts. Historically, hitters with comparable implied run totals batting in the top four of the order average a +1.80 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Max Kepler has one of the highest RBBLs (+53) on the slate. He enters this game crushing the baseball with a 239-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity, and 50% hard-hit rate. Further, he’s on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO splits, sporting a .344 wOBA and .220 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. Historically, hitters with comparable RBBLs and batted-ball data have averaged a +3.31 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: James Paxton
Photo credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
