The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a split slate, and the split varies by site. DraftKings features a seven-game early slate at 1:05 p.m. ET and an eight-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET. FanDuel has the same main slate as DraftKings, but the early slate is split into a two-game very early slate at 1:05 p.m. ET and a four-game afternoon slate at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slates feature a limited group of stud pitchers, with only three owning salaries of at least $9,300 on FanDuel:
Stephen Strasburg is the only high-end option available on the early slates, and he has a solid matchup vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks. Their projected lineup has posted a wOBA of just .302 against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Strasburg’s K Prediction of 8.5 ranks third on the early slates. However, he’s facing the D-backs on the road in Arizona, which has historically been an extreme hitter’s park. He’s priced all the way up at $13,900 on DraftKings, which makes him tough to roster, but his $10,000 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Charlie Morton also has a Bargain Rating of 99% on FanDuel, and he looks like the top option on the main slate. He has the top Vegas data on the slate, leading all pitchers in both opponent implied run total (3.3) and moneyline odds (-248). Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have been awesome values on FanDuel (per the Trends tool):
He’s coming off a rough start in his last outing, in which he allowed three earned runs over just five innings, but the Statcast data from his past two starts is still strong. His average distance of 175 feet represents a differential of -15 feet when compared to his 12-month average, which is the top mark among all pitchers on the main slate. His K Prediction of 8.4 is also tops on the main slate, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions, distance differentials and Vegas data have had a ridiculous average Plus/Minus of +11.86 and a Consistency Rating of 81.8%.
Noah Syndergaard has the pedigree of an elite pitcher, but he’s been up and down to start the 2018 season:
His Vegas data is solid — he is a -154 favorite and has an opponent implied team total of 3.6 runs — but he is significantly behind Morton in that department. He also has a slightly lower K Prediction (8.3), and his Statcast data isn’t nearly as impressive either. Syndergaard could still be worth some consideration on DraftKings, where he’s $1,300 cheaper than Morton, but it’s hard to make a case for him on FanDuel, where he’s $700 more expensive and projected for the same ownership (13% to 16%). The weather also figures to be an issue for Syndergaard, as the current forecast calls for a 56% chance of precipitation at game time.
Values
Ross Stripling is expected to take the mound again for the Dodgers, which makes him an intriguing option at just $4,400 on DraftKings. He’s second to Morton on the main slate in both moneyline odds (-190) and opponent implied team total (3.4 runs), and his K Prediction of 7.0 is tied for fourth. Pitchers with comparable salaries, Vegas data and K Predictions have historically been awesome values on DraftKings:
The big question with Stripling is how deep into the game he’ll be allowed to pitch. He has spent the majority of the season in the bullpen and went just four innings in his most recent start despite not allowing any runs. Still, his salary is so low that it might not matter: He posted a Plus/Minus of +6.57 in his most recent start. He leads all pitchers with nine Pro Trends on DraftKings and 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Arguably no pitcher on today’s slate possesses as much strikeout upside as Chris Archer. He’s averaged a K/9 of 11.26 over the past 12 months, and he’s facing a projected Orioles lineup that has struck out in 25.7% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months. It results in a K Prediction of 11.0, which is the top mark on the early slate by a margin of 2.4 strikeouts. He’s priced at $9,400 on DraftKings, and pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have historically been strong options:
Those pitchers have commanded an average ownership of 37.1%, but Archer will likely check in below that mark on today’s slate. He’s definitely someone worth considering in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Domingo German didn’t disappoint in the first start of his career, allowing zero hits while striking out nine batters over six innings. However, his recent Statcast data suggests that his dominance might be illusory. He allowed an average distance of 210 feet, which represents a differential of +16 feet when compared to his 12-month average. DraftKings wasted no time pricing him up to $10,200 on today’s slate — which is an increase of $4,500 from his last start — but he remains affordable at $7,400 on FanDuel. His K Prediction of 8.6 trails only Archer’s among early pitchers.
Fastballs
Jon Lester: He has an elite matchup vs. the Chicago White Sox, whose projected lineup has posted a .264 wOBA and 37.8% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months. He’s also a massive -260 favorite and has posted a distance differential of -9 feet over his past two starts. He should be extremely popular on the early slates.
Michael Wacha: He doesn’t stand out in any one particular category but has solid marks across the board: 7.7 K Prediction, 3.7-run opponent implied total and -115 moneyline odds. The one black mark on his resume is his recent distance of 225 feet, which represents an increase of +23 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the New York Yankees:
The Yankees bats have lived up to their lofty expectations to start the season. They’ve averaged a league-best 5.74 runs per game, while their wOBA of .341 against right-handed pitchers ranks second. They’re facing A’s right-hander Andrew Triggs, who has allowed a HR/9 of 1.90 over the past 12 months. That could be a problem at Yankee Stadium, which featured the second-most home runs per game in 2017. The Yankees’ implied team total of 5.2 runs is the top mark on the early slate.
Among the stacked batters, projected leadoff hitter Brett Gardner stands out with his recent Statcast data. He’s posted an average distance of 206 feet, exit velocity of 90 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 37% over the past 15 days, all of which represent increases when compared to his 12-month average. His $3,600 salary also makes him significantly more affordable than some of his higher-profile teammates.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers are implied for just 4.7 runs, which is significantly lower than the implied team totals for the Coors Field teams and the Astros on the main slate. What they do have going for them is an elite matchup vs. Reds pitcher Homer Bailey, who has posted a WHIP of 1.62 over the past 12 months. He’s struggled over his past two starts as well, with his average distance of 226 feet representing an increase of +20 feet when compared to his 12-month average. In contrast, the stacked batters for the Dodgers are all in solid recent form, with each owning a positive distance differential over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
Tommy Pham continues to crush the baseball, posting an average distance of 245 feet, exit velocity of 97 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 60% over his past seven games. Those numbers all represent significant increases when compared to his 12-month averages, and he’s projected to occupy the key leadoff spot for the Cardinals.
Steven Souza could be an intriguing buy-low option. He’s struggled from a fantasy perspective over his past six games, posting an average Plus/Minus of -3.55 on DraftKings, but that belies an excellent batted-ball profile. His Recent Batted Ball Luck of +88 is the top mark among all projected starters on today’s slate.
Jesus Aguilar could provide cheap exposure to Coors Field. He’s priced at just $3,800 on DraftKings and on the positive side of his batting splits against Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland. He’s owned lefties to the tune of .406 wOBA and .269 ISO over the past 12 months and he’s also posted an elite distance of 241 feet over his past nine games.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Ross Stripling
Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA Today Sports
