The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday offers an odd split slate. DraftKings has an eight-game early slate that starts at 2:10 p.m. ET, while FanDuel offers a three-game ‘super early’ slate that starts at the same time. FanDuel also offers an all-day slate (2:10 p.m. ET) and a five-game early slate that starts at 4:05 p.m. ET. Both DraftKings and FanDuel have an eight-game main slate that begins at 7:05 p.m. Let’s go!
Pitchers
Studs
There are three FanDuel pitchers priced above $9,000 today:
Patrick Corbin draws an interesting matchup on the road against the Nationals. While the projected Nationals lineup boasts a high 28.6% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, is also has an exceptional .355 weighted on-base average (wOBA). Corbin has been on fire to begin the season, posting a massive +20.66 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 100% Consistency over his first six starts, striking out eight or more batters in every start. Further, Corbin owns a slate-best 9.2 K Prediction, which should provide him with a solid floor. One issue is that his Vegas data isn’t great for his salary: The Diamondbacks are just -123 moneyline favorites, and the Nationals are implied for 3.8 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have been good but not great (per our Trends tool):
Normally, pitchers with high K Predictions have elevated ownership, but it’s possible that Corbin’s Vegas data could make his less popular today.
Carlos Carrasco draws a tough matchup against a projected Mariners lineup that owns a low 22.6% strikeout rate and solid .341 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. His recent average batted-ball distance of 213 feet is on the longer side (+5 feet in comparison to his 12-month average), but Carrasco isn’t allowing a lot of hard contact with a hard-hit rate of 22%. Even against this Mariners team, he owns a solid 7.1 K Prediction, and the Indians check in as the largest favorite on the slate (-224 moneyline odds) as the Mariners are implied for just 3.2 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have been very safe investments.
The past few days, all the top-priced pitchers have had unfavorable matchups. Now, Masahiro Tanaka draws an Angles team whose projected lineup owns a low 19.9% strikeout rate and the slate’s second-highest wOBA (.357). Consequently, Tanaka’s K Prediction is just 6.4. Some of Tanaka’s recent batted-ball data is encouraging, such as his 176-foot average distance, but he’s allowed a lot of hard contact with a 91-mph exit velocity and 40% hard-hit rate, which could be detrimental against a contact-oriented team. The Angels also have an adequate implied run total (4.0), and the Yankees are just -106 moneyline favorites. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and metrics haven’t flashed much upside:
Values
David Price is priced at just $8,000 on FanDuel and sporting a 99% Bargain Rating. The Red Sox are sizable favorites (-204 moneyline odds) at home against a projected Rays lineup that owns a 26.2% strikeout rate and low .293 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. Price has respectable recent batted-ball data with a 190-foot average distance and 30% hard-hit rate, both of which are below his 12-month average. His Recent Batted Ball Luck of +22 also suggests he’s been unlucky in his short-term fantasy performance. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions, salaries and Vegas data have typically been safe investments, boasting a +6.43 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 70.2% Consistency Rating.
Jaime Garcia could be a potential SP2 candidate on DraftKings if you’re looking to punt at the spot. He owns a solid 7.5 K Prediction, and the Jays are -171 moneyline favorites. Further, the Rangers have a high 32.2% strikeout rate and low .274 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. Garcia does, though, have some worrisome recent Statcast data with a 217-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 46% hard-hit rate.
There is no over/under set for the Cubs game yet, but Jose Quintana is a -175 moneyline favorite against a Brewers team with a .283 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. His 6.3 K Prediction leaves much to be desired, but there will be strong winds blowing in from left field for this game:
Caleb Smith is also an intriguing value at $4,500 on DraftKings, as highlighted by Matt LaMarca in today’s Three Key Players piece.
Fastballs
If this article were just on the main slate, Lance McCullers would have fit into the upper pricing tier. His 6.6 K prediction is among the best on the main slate, and he by far has the best moneyline odds (-204). Further, McCullers has excellent recent batted-ball data with a 178-foot average distance and 22% hard-hit rate. Historically, he has dominated when the Astros are large favorites:
Alex Wood and the Dodgers are slight favorites (-117 moneyline odds), and the Giants are implied for 3.4 runs. Wood is comparable to the other main-slate options with his 6.5 K Prediction, and the projected Giants lineup has a 22.7% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months. Historically, pitchers with comparable metrics and Vegas data have averaged a +2.71 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Johnny Cueto is pitching opposite of Wood, and the Giants are just slight underdogs (+111 moneyline odds). He owns a decent 6.7 K Prediction as the projected Dodgers lineup has a high 28.5% strikeout rate and low .277 wOBA against righties over the past year. Cueto also has excellent recent batted-ball data: He’s forced a lot of soft contact with a 20% hard-hit rate while allowing a 182-foot average distance. He could be an intriguing GPP option, as pitchers who are slight home underdogs with comparable metrics have historically averaged a +2.78 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top early-slate five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Blue Jays:
The Jays have a healthy implied total of 5.2 runs against Bartolo Colon, who’s allowed a lot of hard contact over his past two starts with a 95-mph exit velocity and 39% hard-hit rate. Teoscar Hernandez has smashed righties over the past 12 months with an elite .425 wOBA and .383 ISO. In the short term, he’s also obliterated the ball with a 244-foot average distance and 96-mph exit velocity over his past 12 games. The majority of the Jays have exceptional wOBA and ISO splits against righties:
One of the top four-man FanDuel stacks on the main slate in the CSURAM88 Player Models belongs to the Astros, who are implied for a slate-high 5.4 runs:
George Springer is in an excellent spot as he owns a .371 wOBA and .225 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. His 223-foot recent average distance is also +11 feet greater than his 12-month average. Top-of-the-order hitters with similar implied run totals and distance differentials have historically averaged a +3.8 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Other Batters
Per usual, the catcher position is unappetizing, but Chris Iannetta, projected to hit from No. 5 spot, owns a .385 wOBA and .235 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months. Iannetta has a very high RBBL of +62, and comparable RBBLs have historically yielded a +1.03 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Human punching bag Eric Skoglund has allowed at least four earned runs in every start this season and is sporting a 224-foot recent average distance and 96-mph exit velocity. Meanwhile, Jose Abreu owns a 224-foot recent average distance and 94-mph exit velocity along with an elite .470 wOBA and .331 ISO against lefties over the past year.
Andrew McCutchen could be an interesting tournament play in a tough matchup against Wood. McCutchen is sporting a .425 wOBA and .323 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months. Further, he is literally turning baseballs into dust with a 99-mph exit velocity and 63% hard-hit rate. McCutchen’s +44 RBBL suggests that he has outplayed his mediocre short-term production. Hitters with comparable metrics have historically averaged a +1.59 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
On the early slate, the White Sox will face Royals righty Trevor Oaks. The switch-hitting Yoan Moncada boasts a .341 wOBA and .205 ISO against righties over the past 12 months, and he owns positive differentials in recent average distance (+34 feet), exit velocity (+3 mph), and hard-hit rate (+13%).
Twins pitcher Jake Odorizzi has atrocious recent batted-ball data with a 251-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 51% hard-hit rate, and Jesse Winker has smashed righties over the last year with a .402 wOBA and .200 ISO. He’s also crushing the baseball with a 230-foot recent average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 53% hard-hit rate. Hitters with comparable Statcast data have averaged a +1.96 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Johnny Cueto
Photo Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
