The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a two-game slate starting at 4:37 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Today’s slate features four pitchers who have had plenty of success over their careers:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $9,600, HOU vs. CLE
- Carlos Carrasco (R) $7,900, CLE @ HOU
- David Price (L) $6,800, BOS vs. NYY
- Masahiro Tanaka (R) $5,300, NYY @ BOS
Just like yesterday, the pitching options all look like tremendous values on DraftKings: Each owns a Bargain Rating of at least 84%, and all but Cole have seen a monthly salary decrease of -$2,300 or greater.
The Astros own a 1-0 lead in their series and will send Cole to the mound for game 2. He put together a fantastic season in his first year in Houston, pitching to a 2.88 ERA and career-high 12.40 K/9. Cole also finished second in the American League in pitching WAR and will likely receive some Cy Young consideration.
He appears to be in the best spot among today’s starters, ranking first in both opponent implied team total (3.3 runs) and moneyline odds (-160). The Indians represent a difficult matchup for right-handed pitchers – their projected lineup owns a .342 wOBA over the past 12 months – but there are no easy matchups on today’s slate: These four offenses are all among the best in baseball. Cole’s K Prediction of 6.9 is also tied for first.
The one big concern with Cole is his recent Statcast data, particularly his average distance of 248 feet. That represents an increase of +32 feet when compared to his 12-month average and results in a Recent Batted Ball Luck of -90. That said, he’s also allowed a hard hit rate of just 27% over that time frame, so his increase in distance seems like a direct result of an increased fly ball rate.
Carrasco stumbled over the first half of the season but righted the ship to put together an excellent second half. He pitched to a 2.52 ERA and an 11.99 K/9, and his Statcast data from his past two starts results in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -19 feet and hard hit differential of -11 percentage points.
The Astros are a potent offensive team, but their projected lineup owns the worst splits-adjusted wOBA among today’s offenses. Carrasco might also benefit from this game being played in Houston: His road ERA was nearly a full run lower than his home ERA in 2018.
Chris Sale gave the Red Sox a one-game lead over the Yankees last night, and they’ll turn to another former Cy Young winner in game 2. Unfortunately, Price has never been able to duplicate his regular season success during the postseason, pitching to a career ERA of 5.03. His struggles with the Yankees are also well documented: They roughed him up in four starts in 2018, resulting in an ERA of 10.34.
The Yankees have destroyed left-handed pitching in general over the past 12 months, with their projected lineup posted a .360 wOBA. That said, Price is a slight -110 favorite in this matchup, and he’s projected for the lowest ownership among starting pitchers on DraftKings. The Yankees are prone to striking out in bunches – Sale racked up eight Ks in just five innings last night – so Price does offer some upside if you can stomach a little risk.
Tanaka rounds out today’s pitching options and might be the best pure value on DraftKings: His $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He owns the highest opponent implied team total and lowest K Prediction among today’s starters, but he should benefit from escaping the bandbox known as Yankee Stadium. He’s limited batters to a .285 wOBA and pitched to a 3.47 ERA on the road this season.
The big problem with Tanaka is his HR rate. He typically has success if he keeps the ball in the ballpark, but the Red Sox posted the second-highest ISO against right-handers over the regular season. This seems like a boom-or-bust spot.
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
- 1. Mookie Betts (R)
- 2. Andrew Benintendi (L)
- 3. J.D. Martinez (R)
- 4. Xander Bogaerts (R)
- 5. Mitch Moreland (L)
Total Salary: $25,300
The Red Sox are implied for 4.6 runs on today’s slate, and they roughed up Tanaka in four meetings during the regular season. He posted a 7.58 ERA in those matchups, and just as importantly, surrendered six long balls in just 19 innings pitched. The Sox have the potential to leave the ballpark multiple times in today’s contest.
No one on the Sox enters today’s contest in better form than Martinez, who hit a HR in yesterday. He’s posted an average distance of 265 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 50% over the past 15 days, all of which represent increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
The Red Sox will likely be the most popular target on today’s slate, and stacking the top five batters in their lineup should be particularly chalky. If you do choose to go that route, you need to consider some under-the-radar players to fill out your lineup.
Other Batters
Marwin Gonzalez is one of the best hitting values on DraftKings at just $3,300. He’s expected to occupy the fifth spot in the lineup for the Houston Astros and has posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +13 feet. He’s eligible as a shortstop and outfielder, so he should be easy to fit into your lineup.
Luke Voit has become one of the Yankees most important players despite starting the season with the St. Louis Cardinals. He’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits against Price, owning a .444 wOBA and .396 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months. He also enters today’s contest in good recent form, posting a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +24 feet and hard hit rate of +11 percentage points.
If you’re looking to build a contrarian lineup, targeting the Indians might be the way to go. One batter in particular who stands out is Edwin Encarnacion. He’s hit right-handers better than left-handers for most of his career and has posted some solid Statcast marks over the past 15 days.
Pictured above: David Price
Photo credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
