The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday offers a nine-game main slate that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
- Gerrit Cole ($11,100)
- Clayton Kershaw ($10,500)
- Jose Berrios ($10,100)
Cole is in a tough spot against a projected Oakland lineup with a 22.7% strikeout rate and .333 weighted on-base average (wOBA) over the past 12 months against righties. Vegas is still on the Astros’ side at home, as they’re -221 moneyline favorites and the Athletics are implied for just 3.2 runs. That said, Cole’s 7.3 K Prediction is on the lower end for him, considering his slate-best 11.11 SO/9 over the past year. This decrease is likely derived from the matchup — the Athletics rank fourth in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitching this season, per FanGraphs — but Cole has been the most consistent of the high-priced pitchers on the slate over the past year, averaging a +7.9 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 62% Consistency Rating.
Kershaw has made just three starts since returning from the disabled list and is clearly still working his way back into form. The numbers from his most recent start are a legit cause for concern — he registered only two strikeouts in six innings — but his pitch count continues to creep up (55, 68, 74). His workload will likely continue to increase, but it’s likely that he’ll still be limited in some capacity vs. the Padres. Even if he’s not 100%, he still deserves some consideration. He owns a least a share of the slate-lead in two key categories — moneyline odds (-233) and opponent implied run total (3.1) — and pairs his strong Vegas data with a top-three K Prediction (7.0). Historically, similarly priced pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have been fantastic investments on FanDuel, averaging a +10.17 Plus/Minus with 76.5% Consistency (per our MLB Trends tool). The Padres’ projected lineup has been below average against left-handers over the past 12 months, posting a strikeout rate of 25.5%, but Kershaw isn’t a safe option for cash games, though the uncertainty surrounding his pitch count could lower his ownership for guaranteed prize pool tournaments.
Berrios’ matchup doesn’t jump off the page but is probably the best of the high-priced options. He has -195 moneyline odds and faces a Royals team with an implied total on the lower end (3.5). Kansas City ranks 29th in wRC+ this season, and their projected lineup has managed just a .293 wOBA against righties over the past year. That said, he’s priced unfavorably and has a middling 6.3 K Prediction, which is low compared to some of the more appealing value options. Pitchers with similar K Predictions and Vegas data have historically averaged a mediocre -2.32 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Values
Eduardo Rodriguez’s 6.9K Prediction is the fourth-highest mark on the slate, but he costs just $8,400 on DraftKings and $8,000 on FanDuel. The Red Sox are -190 favorites against the Rangers, and their implied run total of 4.2 isn’t overly intimidating. Rodriguez makes for a better play on FanDuel, where he has a 70% Bargain Rating, and his 10.17 SO/9 over the past 12 months trails only Cole for the slate lead. Similarly priced pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have historically been great options on FanDuel, averaging a +5.81 Plus/Minus.
Jose Urena takes on a projected Brewers lineup that owns a slate-worst 29.5% strikeout rate and below-average .306 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. His 6.3 K Prediction is solid for the price, though his Marlins are slight underdogs (+116) and the Brewers are implied for a middling 4.0 runs. He does benefit from facing them in Milwaukee, which rewards Urena with a top-three Park Factor of 86.
Fastballs
Chris Archer will likely end up as the slate’s chalkiest pitcher next to Kershaw and Cole, but his high ownership may actually be warranted, providing top-four Vegas data (-201 moneyline favorite, 3.1 opponent implied run total) at just $8,100 on DraftKings. He also adds a slate-leading 7.6 K Prediction, taking on an underwhelming Tigers team that ranks 28th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season. The main concern is that he’ll reportedly be working with a limited pitch count — he’s been out since June 5 with an abdominal strain — but the upside is undeniable in a favorable pitcher’s park (84 Park Factor).
Andrew Suarez enters Monday in elite form as of late, holding opposing teams to a recent batted-ball distance of 166 feet, a fly-ball rate of 17%, and hard-hit rate of 27%. Suarez’s 5.8 K Prediction leaves a lot to be desired, but the Cubs are implied for only 3.7 runs. Suarez also benefits from facing them in AT&T Park, which has a slate-high Park Factor of 93. Suarez has had drastic home/road splits this season and averages a +5.38 DraftKings Plus/Minus at home.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On DraftKings, the top five-man stack (per the CSURAM88 Model) belongs to the Cleveland Indians:
1. Lindor (S)
2. Brantley (L)
3. Ramirez (S)
4. Encarnacion(R)
6. Kipnis(L)
Total Salary: $25,000
The Indians expensive but will square off against Reds righty Anthony DeSclafani, who owns a slate-worst 2.49 HR/9 over the past 12 months.
Projected to bat cleanup, Edwin Encarnacion has strong .380 wOBA and .295 ISO splits against righties over the past 12 months. He’s in excellent recent batted-ball form, sporting a 225-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity, and 47% and 55% fly-ball and hard-hit rates over the past 15 days. Historically, hitters in similar lineup spots with comparable batted-ball metrics and implied run totals have averaged a +3.75 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Jose Ramirez stands out as one of the top batting options on the slate, with impressive recent Statcast differentials versus his year-long averages: a distance of +14 feet, exit velocity of +4 mph and hard-hit rate of +18 percentage points. That said, he is much more affordable on FanDuel and has 70% Bargain Rating on the site.
The top four-man FanDuel stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
1. Mauer (L)
2. Rosario (L)
4. Dozier (R)
6. Polanco (S)
Total Salary: $12,900
The Twins have a nice matchup against Danny Duffy, whose 1.55 HR/9 over the past year is the fourth-worst on the slate. The Twins have destroyed lefties over that span to the tune of a .331 wOBA and insane 18% strikeout rate. Their implied team total of 5.1 runs is a top-three mark on the slate, which will likely make them one of the highest-owned stacks, but avoiding No. 3 hitter Eduardo Escobar could differentiate your lineup. Escobar is on the wrong side of incredibly poor splits, including -.093 wOBA and -.176 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. He also boasts a pathetic 20% hard-hit rate over the last 15 days.
Brian Dozier was in a smash spot Sunday and obliged with a home run, and not much has changed Monday — in fact, he’s in an arguably even better matchup. He’s averaging an excellent 250-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity, and 51% fly-ball rate over the past 15 days.
Additional Batters
The Red Sox’ implied run total of 5.9 is the highest on the slate. Both Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez will likely be popular stacking options in the No. 1 and No. 3 spots, respectively, against the Rangers. Betts on the right side of his dramatic batting splits, sporting an elite .459 wOBA and .278 ISO against left-handed pitching. Martinez has been crushing the ball lately, posting a massive 243-foot average distance with a 95-mph exit velocity and 45% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days.
Hunter Renfroe absolutely mashes left-handed pitching, and he could be a solid leverage play or one-off value play on FanDuel, where he costs just $2,600 and has a 93% Bargain Rating. Despite the Padres being implied for just 3.1 runs against Kershaw and the Dodgers, Renfroe stands out with a .396 wOBA and .330 ISO against lefties over the past year, and he’s posted an impressive 244-foot batted-ball distance, 94-mph exit velocity, and 46% fly-ball rate over the past 15 days .
In the same game, Justin Turner is due for a breakout with a +38 Recent Batted Ball Luck. He’s in a prime matchup against Padres right-hander Luis Perdomo and his slate-worst 1.70 WHIP. Turner is on the wrong side of his batting splits, but boasts fantastic Statcast data over the past 14 games, including an average distance of 241 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph, and fly-ball rate of 50%.
Wilson Ramos is expected to occupy the No. 4 spot for the Rays Monday. He has generated a ton of hard contact over the past 15 days, which has yielded a 95-mph exit velocity and 61% hard-hit rate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Chris Archer
Photo credit: Kim Klement – USA TODAY Sports
