The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Labor Day presents an odd slate distribution. The nine-game main slate on DraftKings begins at 1:08 pm ET, but the FanDuel five-game main slate starts at 7:10 pm ET. For the purposes of this breakdown, we’ll consider all available players.
Pitchers
Studs
The all-day slate includes six pitchers who cost more than $10,000 on DraftKings and seven starters priced $9,000 or more on FanDuel:
None of the high-priced options are clear chalk or must-rosters in the all-day slate. Rich Hill might qualify as such in the five-game night slate, but the early slate is very much a free-for-all.
Hill is the only pitcher in the late slate facing a team implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs, and he claims at least double the DraftKings Pro Trends as any other pitcher on the slate. Hill may achieve the highest guaranteed prize pool (GPP) ownership among the $10,000-plus DraftKings pitchers by default: He’s the cheapest of the six, and none of them command excessive exposure.
Hill’s most recent start against the Diamondbacks, which occurred in Arizona last week, resulted in -1.15 DraftKings points. The Diamondbacks are an extremely potent home offense, but when left-handed pitchers have hosted them this season, their fortunes have vanished (per our Trends tool):
Hill owns a rock-solid 8.4 K Prediction and slate-best 3.4 opponent implied run total (per the Vegas Dashboard). Pitchers with his combination of K Prediction and opponent implied total have supplied a +3.26 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 62.5 percent Consistency Rating and 31.0 percent DraftKings average GPP ownership. Hill’s production under similar circumstances has been valuable, averaging 5.49 DraftKings points above tonight’s salary-based expectations:
Hill offers a similar discount on FanDuel, where he costs $9,000. His overall average ownership will be one worth tracking, and Pro subscribers can review shortly after lineups lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Finding a pivot in the all-day slate could be a difficult task. Carlos Martinez is the most expensive, likely due to his perceived plus matchup against the Padres; Jake Arrieta has been an elite pitcher post All-Star break, averaging a +7.66 FanDuel Plus/Minus and exceeding salary-based expectations in all nine outings; Robbie Ray leads all pitchers with a 9.4 K Prediction; and Dallas Keuchel has the best recent Statcast data among all available pitchers.
Ray strikes me as a deserving GPP alternative despite his inferior Vegas data — a 4.2 opponent implied total — and his -95 DraftKings Recent Batted Ball Luck score, which implies he’s been extremely lucky in his last two starts. Ray’s salary places him in an odd situation: You can either spend down for Hill or invest a few extra dollars on Arrieta or Martinez. In four starts against the Dodgers this season, Ray has struck out 39 batters in 24.0 innings; that is significant upside:
Ray has also been elite on the road, averaging a +13.91 FanDuel Plus/Minus this season and a +8.08 FanDuel Plus/Minus since the beginning of 2015. In two starts since being activated off the disabled list, Ray has notched nine and 10 strikeouts, including his most recent start against the Dodgers. That said, his overall average GPP ownership could be curtailed due to a variety of factors.
Among pitchers in the early slate, Martinez appears to be in the safest position. He faced the Padres two weeks ago and produced 20.35 DraftKings points. His GPP stock isn’t as high as the rest of the pitchers on the slate, but he’s a fine cash-game option. When Martinez has pitched on the road, his average ownership has dropped roughly 10 percent compared to his average ownership in home starts despite the discrepancy in production:
Martinez joins the growing list of pitchers who have received a premium salary due to their matchup against the Padres, but since the All-Star break, pitchers facing the Padres have averaged a 49.1 percent DraftKings Consistency Rating — the 12th lowest over that span — while leading all groups with an average DraftKings GPP ownership of 22.1 percent. Simply facing the Padres isn’t a good enough reason to roster the opposing pitcher anymore, especially when they are slightly overpriced.
Pro subscribers can also view how other DFS players approached the main slate via our new DFS Contests Dashboard.
Values
Trevor Bauer has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight consecutive starts, and he leads all pitchers in the early slate with a 7.8 K Prediction and -232 moneyline odds — uncommon unions that have historically resulted in a +2.48 DraftKings Plus/Minus, 60.9 percent Consistency Rating, and whopping 32.3 percent average DraftKings GPP ownership. He’ll likely be the belle of the ball, leading all pitchers in average GPP ownership due to his relatively cheap salary of $8,800 on DraftKings. The conditions at Progressive Field certainly favor the hitters, yet the White Sox are implied to score 3.7 runs, the third-lowest mark in the early slate. Since the All-Star break, the White Sox have averaged a 12.3 percent home run/fly ball mark (eighth-lowest) and a 28.1 percent hard contact rate (second-lowest). Bauer hasn’t recorded fewer than 15.25 DraftKings points over the last eight outings, lasting into the sixth inning in six straight.
Rafael Montero may have turned a corner in his development, or he might just be having a good two-week stretch. Either way, he faces a Phillies team that aside from Rhys Hoskins, who is questionable to suit up, has been mediocre at the plate since the All-Star break. The Phillies are presently implied to score 4.1 runs, and Montero hasn’t allowed more than three runs in four consecutive outings. Montero is strictly a SP2 GPP pivot due to his long-term inconsistency, and now that his salary has increased to a season-high $7,400 on DraftKings, the public may be less inclined to invest. He has the fifth-highest K Prediction on the all-day slate, but his 1.857 WHIP is the second-highest mark over the last 12 months.
Fastballs
Dylan Bundy: He leads all pitchers with an average of 32.1 DraftKings points over the last month, striking out at least 10 in three of his last four starts. Since the All-Star break, right-handed pitchers have averaged a +1.82 DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Yankees, who have ranked 21st over the same time frame in wOBA against right-handed pitchers. Bundy is one of the many GPP pivots included on today’s slate.
Alex Cobb: The Twins have been on an epic scoring binge, producing at least five runs in eight of their last nine games. That begs the question: Why has their implied total decreased 0.8 runs since the line opened? That’s unclear, but based on Cobb’s track record at home this year — a +5.11 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 90.1 percent Consistency Rating in 11 outings — he’ll warrant additional consideration.
Jake Junis: The Tigers have quickly become a team worth targeting. The recent loss of Justin Upton and Victor Martinez, combined with the suspension of Miguel Cabrera, have left them offensively exposed. Junis will have to deal with projected 19 MPH wind blowing toward left field, but he’s limited hitters to a 21 percent recent fly ball rate while accumulating 15 strikeouts in his last 11 innings.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated FantasyDraft stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Angels, a team facing righty Chris Smith for the second time in less than a week:
In their recent encounter, Smith surrendered six earned runs and two homers in 3.2 innings. In fact, Smith hasn’t allowed less than three earned runs since moving into the rotation at the end of July. Right-handed hitters have accounted for 12 of the 13 homers yielded by Smith, who has a slate-high 2.135 HR/9 rate. Smith’s struggles have turned into a +1.01 FantasyDraft Plus/Minus for right-handed hitters this season, which is pertinent as the Angels’ stack incorporates five righties. This sextet is the second-most expensive stack in the early nine-game slate, and the Angels are presently implied to score the second-highest mark in the all-day slate at 5.2 runs (barring the Vegas over/under being set for the Coors Field game). Mike Trout and Justin Upton are obvious GPP options due to their upside, and both lead the team with an ISO of at least 0.256 against righties over the past 12 months.
The Indians have the highest-rated and most-expensive DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model:
They have posted double-digit runs in four of their last 11 games, and during their 11-game winning streak, they’ve amassed a 0.384 wOBA and 0.225 ISO — top-four marks during that stretch. They lead all teams with a 6.2 implied run total, and they’re facing a pitcher in James Shields with a 1.531 WHIP and 2.071 HR/9 rate over the last 12 months. Left-handed hitters have averaged an elite 0.424 wOBA and hit 15 of the 21 homers allowed off Shields this season, and lefty and switch hitters have averaged a +1.50 DraftKings Plus/Minus in Shields’ starts this year. The weather conditions at Guaranteed Rate Field greatly benefit the hitters: Although a 15 percent chance of precipitation exists, the winds are projected to blow 15 MPH toward left center field. Expect Indians hitters to be among the highest-owned in all formats.
Batters
The Royals’ implied total has increased 0.9 runs since the line opened, currently sitting at 4.9. Such a swing in Vegas data has historically resulted in a +1.51 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 46 percent Consistency Rating. When accounting for the 81 Weather Rating at Comerica Park — the second-highest in the all-day slate — hitters have netted a +2.92 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 52.9 percent Consistency Rating. Every hitter in the projected Royals lineup has at least eight DraftKings and six FanDuel Pro Trends, led by Brandon Moss with a slate-best 13 on DraftKings. He’s registered a 52 percent fly ball rate and 47 percent hard hit rate over the last 15 days, and the Royals are facing a pitcher in Artie Lewicki who is making his first career start.
The Cubs are facing Chad Kuhl, who has allowed the second-highest wOBA over the last 15 days. Kuhl most recently faced the Cubs last Tuesday and allowed three runs and 10 base runners in 5.1 innings. The Cubs are presently implied to score 4.9 runs — the fourth-highest mark in the early slate — and Ian Happ will warrant consideration on both sites. He’s averaged a +6.00 FanDuel Plus/Minus in his last 10 starts, and over the last 15 days, he’s recorded a 251-foot batted ball distance and 42 percent hard hit rate. His dual-position eligibility on DraftKings provides flexibility at second base or outfield.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
