The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
The 11-game all-day slate starts at 1:05 pm ET, and the nine-game main slate begins at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Four pitchers cost more than $9,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel. All four are priced within $500 of each other on FanDuel:
Yu Darvish is the most-expensive pitcher on both sites, and he is making his final start of the season as the Dodgers vie for home-field advantage through the World Series. Although Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has kept a tight leash on his starters, this could be a case where Darvish is allowed to toss more than 100 pitches.
The Padres’ offensive surge has subsided over the past month, and they’ve landed in the bottom-five in wOBA and ISO after a promising renaissance post-All-Star break. Right-handed starters have averaged a +5.28 DraftKings Plus/Minus over their last 21 encounters against them (per the Trends tool). The Padres are presently implied to score a slate-low 3.0 runs, but Darvish allowed five runs in 3.0 innings against them earlier this month.
Darvish is one of two pitchers in the main slate facing a team implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs, and he leads all pitchers with a 9.0 K Prediction and -260 moneyline odds. Similar factors have resulted in outstanding value:
Darvish’s Dodgers tenure has produced uneven results, but he’s posted a 184-foot recent batted ball distance allowed, exceeded 23.0 DraftKings points four times, and hasn’t allowed a run in two straight outings. Darvish’s elite Vegas data improves his candidacy as the chalk pitcher on FanDuel. However, Coors Field’s presence will likely reduce his guaranteed prize pool (GPP) ownership on DraftKings, which Pro subscribers can review on the DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Since the beginning of August, Luke Weaver has won seven straight starts and limited hitters to a .244 wOBA — the sixth-lowest mark among starters during that span. His 12.0 SO/9 over that streak has ranked third in the majors, and he’s generated a 56.9 percent ground ball rate allowed. His DFS production has been equally phenomenal:
Weaver possesses the best recent Statcast data on the slate, limiting hitters to a 176-foot batted ball distance, 18 percent fly ball rate, and 14 percent hard hit rate. He also has the second-highest K Prediction (8.4) on the main slate, and when pitchers have faced the Cubs with a similar mark, they’ve averaged solid production and the third-highest DraftKings Consistency Rating this year:
Saving $2,400 by fading Darvish and rostering Weaver on DraftKings could be a wise move, especially in GPPs, in order to focus on high-priced bats. The salary difference between the two is negligible on FanDuel, where Weaver costs $100 less than Darvish.
Values
Aaron Nola has averaged a +11.24 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 12 home starts this season, and he hasn’t provided less than 26.15 DraftKings points in his last nine starts at Citizens Bank Park. Nonetheless, his salary has dropped to $8,000 on DraftKings, and when he faced the Nationals in Washington at the start of September, he notched 18.6 DraftKings points — or 4.01 points above tonight’s salary-based expectation. The Nationals are presently implied to score 4.0 runs — the third-lowest mark in the main slate — and they will likely welcome back Bryce Harper. During his injury-related absence, right-handed starters have averaged a +3.85 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 27 games with a 66.7 percent Consistency Rating against the Nationals. Nola is the third-most expensive pitcher on FanDuel at $9,300, but he’ll make for a solid SP2 in all DraftKings formats.
Jon Lester‘s recent slide in performance has slashed his salary to $8,400 on DraftKings for the first time since the end of June. Despite his poor recent form, Lester has limited hitters to a 185-foot batted ball distance and 25 percent fly ball rate over the last 15 days. Left-handed starters have averaged a -1.72 DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Cardinals this season, but St. Louis could be without Jose Martinez, who leads the team in wOBA and ISO against lefties. Lester has averaged 20.58 DraftKings points in four starts against the Cardinals this season. He has inferior Vegas data to Nola’s, and, because he costs more, he will likely profile as an SP2 pivot.
Fastballs
Zack Godley: Among pitchers with at least 10 home starts, Godley ranks fifth with a +7.66 DraftKings Plus/Minus. The Vegas over/under has yet to be set for the Giants-Diamondbacks game, but Godley opposes a team with just one hitter who has a recent hard hit rate above 30 percent.
Johnny Cueto: The Diamondbacks clinched home-field advantage in the National League wildcard game last night, and Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo may feel inclined to rest most of the regulars. Cueto has the fourth-highest K Prediction against the current projected Diamondbacks lineup, and his appeal will likely increase should the regulars rest.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated FantasyDraft stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Rockies, who are presently implied to score a slate-high 6.7 runs — one run higher than the next-closest total.
The top-six hitters in the Rockies lineup have averaged a modest +0.78 Plus/Minus with an enormous 27.7 percent GPP average ownership when implied for a similar total since last season. The hitters in this stack have averaged a +1.21 Plus/Minus, and three of the top-four hitters in the projected lineup have claimed ridiculous ownership levels:
Rain is in the forecast, and Nolan Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez are both questionable to play due to unrelated maladies. Cheaper hitters moving up the batting order will certainly increase ownership for Rockies hitters if Arenado and/or Gonzalez can’t play, and Marlins starter Odrisamer Despaigne has allowed the second-highest recent batted ball distance (233 feet) over the last 15 days. Despaigne also has a slate-low 4.47 SO/9 rate, and his .376 wOBA allowed on the road is over 100 points higher than his wOBA allowed at Marlins Park. Bank on Rockies hitters being extremely popular.
The Rockies also have the highest-rated DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model, followed closely by a Mariners stack, which costs $9,100 less than the Rockies quintet.
The Mariners are implied to score 5.0 runs — the seventh-highest total in the main slate — yet they lead all teams with a 94 DraftKings Team Value Rating. Robinson Cano costs an all-time low $3,000, and Nelson Cruz has sunk below $3,000 for the first time on record despite leading all hitters with a 98 MPH recent exit velocity. No one else in the stack costs more than $3,400, and Jean Segura, who is questionable to play due to a hurt finger, is the only one who has a recent batted ball distance less than 220 feet and a negative wOBA differential. The Mariners are facing Daniel Gossett, who has the fourth-highest wOBA allowed and third-highest ISO allowed over the last 15 days; when he faced the Mariners earlier in September, he allowed three runs in 3.2 innings. It’s either a trap or the perfect stack to pair with Coors Field hitters on DraftKings.
Batters
In his last 17 starts at Coors Field, Giancarlo Stanton has averaged a +5.40 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 64.7 percent Consistency Rating. He exceeded double-digit FanDuel points in 11 of the 17 games, and he is the most-expensive hitter on FanDuel ($5,500) and DraftKings ($5,800). Stanton has struggled to provide value at his current salaries when facing a right-handed starter this season, and he’s never cost more than $5,400 on FanDuel. The price is steep, but it’s one worth heavy consideration.
Nola has allowed 19 steals this season, and Trea Turner leads all hitters in the main slate with a 0.44 SB/G mark. Since returning from sitting out with an injured wrist, Turner has gone 7/7 on stolen base attempts, and when Nola faced the Nationals three weeks ago, he allowed two steals. Turner is an expensive hitter, and thus he’ll likely get overshadowed by Coors Field bats.
Tommy Pham has averaged a +3.70 FanDuel Plus/Minus against left-handed starters since the beginning of 2015, and he’s a stolen base threat — two important traits given left-hander Jon Lester has allowed 19 steals this season. Pham leads the Cardinals with a 52 percent FanDuel monthly Consistency Rating, and if Jose Martinez is cleared to play, they will qualify as a solid two-man stack.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our MLB news blurbs:
