The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a seven-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Only two pitchers on today’s slate have salaries of at least $9,500 on FanDuel:
Clayton Kershaw is the clear class of this group, and he has an excellent matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies. They have a .305 wOBA this season against left-handed pitchers, and Kershaw has elite Vegas data with a 2.6 opponent implied team total and -324 moneyline odds. Pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically been dominant on FanDuel (per the Trends tool):
Kershaw has personally matched this trend nine previous times – more than any other pitcher – and has recorded an average Plus/Minus of +12.53 in those instances.
In addition to their poor wOBA, the Phillies’ projected lineup also has the fourth-worst splits-adjusted strikeout rate on today’s slate (27.7 percent). Kershaw has the highest 12-month K/9 among today’s pitchers at 10.51, and his K Prediction of 7.7 is the highest mark on the slate.
If there’s any reason to be concerned about Kershaw, it’s probably his recent Statcast data. He’s allowed an average distance of 234 feet over his last two starts, which represents a differential of +36 feet compared to his 12-month average. Still, this is one of the best pitchers in baseball on a slate largely devoid of pitching talent; it’s probably best not to overthink this one, especially on FanDuel where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
On other slates it would be hard to consider Patrick Corbin a ‘stud,’ but he has pitched well of late:
He also has the dream matchup for a pitcher against the San Diego Padres. They have the second-worst wOBA against left-handed pitchers this season (.288) and the third-highest strikeout rate (25.5 percent); their implied team total of 3.8 runs is the second-lowest mark on today’s slate. That combination of an impotent offense and high strikeout potential has been good for pitchers: No team has historically rewarded pitchers with more fantasy points or a higher Plus/Minus on DraftKings than the Padres:
His K Prediction of 7.3 ranks second on today’s slate, and Corbin also benefits from one of the biggest park upgrades for starting pitchers. His home stadium of Chase Field has historically been a hitter’s paradise, with batters averaging more fantasy points than any stadium outside of Coors Field, but pitching against the Padres in San Diego rewards him with a Park Factor of 87. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Park Factors have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.60. He should have much lower ownership than Kershaw, which Pro Subscribers can review using the DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Values
Outside of Kershaw (and to a lesser extent Corbin), the pitching on this slate is brutal: Only two other pitchers have moneyline odds greater than -116, and no other pitcher has a K Prediction above 6.5. Given that dynamic, it’s probably wise to leverage projected ownership when considering pitchers outside of the top tier for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Jaime Garcia is cheap at just $6,600 on DraftKings, and he’s the second-largest favorite on the slate with -164 moneyline odds. He was very effective in the type of contact he allowed in his most recent start, posting a ground ball rate of 73 percent and a distance differential of -37 feet. Pitchers with comparable odds, salaries, and distance differentials have historically been awesome values on DraftKings:
These pitchers have also offered an Upside Rating of 21 percent, which is ideal for GPPs. The biggest concern with Garcia is his possible pitch count in this start. He threw only 76 pitches in his last outing and failed to make it through the fifth inning, despite the fact that he had allowed just one earned run at that point. One of the Yankees’ biggest strengths is their bullpen, so Garcia will likely be on a short leash if he runs into trouble.
Doug Fister is the only pitcher on the slate to average 100-plus pitches per start over the past 15 days. He pitched poorly in his last start, allowing six earned runs over just four innings pitched, but prior to that he had recorded at least 21.55 DraftKings points in four straight starts. Despite his poor recent results, he’s still managed to post relatively impressive recent Statcast data: a 197-foot average distance, 88 MPH exit velocity, 64 percent ground ball rate, and 35 percent hard hit rate. Fister’s K Prediction of 6.4 isn’t spectacular, but it’s still the fourth-highest mark among today’s pitchers.
Fastballs
Buck Farmer: He’s third on the slate with a K Prediction of 6.5, and he’s dirt cheap on DraftKings at just $5,500. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and salaries have a historical Plus/Minus of just +0.92, but they also have an Upside Rating of 16 percent and average ownership of just 5.2 percent.
Brent Suter: He’s another cheap option at just $5,400 on DraftKings, and his 72 percent Bargain Rating is the second-highest mark on the slate. He’s posted a distance differential of -27 feet over his last three outings, and pitchers with comparable distance differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.55 on DraftKings. Suter benefits from a Park Factor of 90 by virtue of his matchup against the Pirates in Pittsburgh, and he’s also a slight favorite with -109 moneyline odds.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. FantasyDraft allows you to stack up to six batters from the same team, and the top six-man stack on today’s slate (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Oakland Athletics:
Oakland currently leads the slate with an implied team total of 5.2 runs. They’re set to face Farmer, who has allowed an average of 2.02 home runs per nine innings over the past 12 months. Facing a right-handed pitcher also puts the entirety of the stacked batters on the positive side of their batting splits:
These batters seem collectively underpriced on FantasyDraft, with each possessing a Bargain Rating of at least 81 percent. They’re also all in solid recent form, with only Khris Davis owning a negative distance differential over the past 15 days.
Matt Chapman is in the best recent form of the group, with distance, hard hit, and exit velocity differentials of +14 feet, +2 miles per hour, and +4 percentage points over his last 11 games, and he could be a key differentiator for Oakland stacks today. He’s projected to bat eighth at only $6,000 on FantasyDraft and should command lower ownership than the rest of the stacked batters. You can review the ownership dynamics of a particular stack using the new DFS Contests Dashboard.
The top DraftKings stack also belongs to Oakland, so we’ll instead focus on the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers’ implied team total of 5.0 runs ranks third on the slate, and they’re set to face Phillies right-hander Nick Pivetta. Pivetta has allowed an average distance of 218 feet, exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 41 percent over his last two starts, as well as a dreadful 6.75 ERA this season.
The Dodgers aren’t hitting as well as Oakland has been, but they still feature a few hot hitters at the moment. Yasiel Puig has posted a distance differential of +24 feet over his last 12 games, and he’s projected to bat fifth in the order after spending the majority of the season in the bottom third of the lineup. Cody Bellinger isn’t hitting particularly well currently, but he has destroyed righties to the tune of a .402 wOBA and .350 ISO over the past 12 months.
Batters
J.D. Martinez has been red hot recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.36 on DraftKings over his last 10 games. Despite the excellent Plus/Minus, his Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +1 suggests his production has been deserved. He’s absolutely crushed the ball recently, with an average distance of 276 feet, exit velocity of 98 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 60 percent over the last 15 days.
Speaking of crushing the ball, Rhys Hoskins has hit 18 home runs through his first 36 games in the majors. He’s hit particularly well against lefties, posting a .536 wOBA and .682 ISO, and he gets to face a southpaw today in Kershaw. Of course, Kershaw isn’t just a regular lefty, but that should result in minuscule ownership for a batter who has been going yard at an unprecedented rate.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
