The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday’s eight-game main slate commences at 7:07 pm ET with minimal weather concerns.
Pitchers
Studs
Only two pitchers cost more than $10,000 on DraftKings and $9,000 on FanDuel:
Carlos Carrasco costs at least $13,200 on DraftKings for the third time in our database (per our Trends tool). He’ll be the no-brainer chalk on FanDuel at $10,600 after striking out at least eight in five of his last six starts, but his DraftKings salary may be detrimental to his appeal in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Carrasco is one of four pitchers facing a team implied to score less than 4.0 runs (per the Vegas Dashboard), and he leads them all in Pro Trends, recent hard hit rate (seven percent), moneyline odds (-355), and K Prediction (7.7). His recent Statcast data is immaculate, and he’s added close to a mile per hour on his average velocity over the previous three outings.
Only three hitters in the projected Tigers lineup have a positive batted ball distance differential or hard hit rate differential, and none of them have a wOBA greater than .325 over the past 12 months. The current Tigers roster ranks 28th in wOBA and 29th in ISO against righties this season, further cementing Carrasco’s case as the premier stud.
Pitchers with similar Vegas data and K Predictions have been infrequent but extremely consistent:
Fading Carrasco in GPPs will be the main route to deviate from the field; that strategy will give additional salary to spend up elsewhere and likely create an uncommon lineup. However, doing so may reduce your overall ceiling and floor on such a small slate. Pro subscribers can review average ownership shortly after lineups lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Zack Greinke has an elite home track record this season:
He hasn’t posted less than 18.8 DraftKings points or 33.0 FanDuel points in his last 15 home starts, and when he faced the Rockies at Chase Field two months ago, he struck out eight in 7.0 innings.
Greinke has allowed the highest recent hard hit rate (48 percent) over the past 15 days, yet he’s come away unscathed in consecutive starts against the Dodgers. His accompanying -65 DraftKings Recent Batted Ball Luck score creates additional concern in selecting Greinke, but when he’s had a similar mark, he’s averaged 20.03 DraftKings points — 0.03 points below his salary-based expectation.
Greinke ranks second with a 7.6 K Prediction and third with -188 moneyline odds. Among qualified starters, he ranks ninth this season with a home 10.46 SO/9 rate, which leads all pitchers on the slate and is significantly higher than his 12-month SO/9 rate of 9.669. The Rockies are presently implied to score 3.6 runs, the third-lowest mark, and home pitchers with a comparable SO/9 rate have averaged a +4.50 DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Rockies this season. Right-handed pitchers have been far superior to their left-handed counterparts under similar circumstances.
Greinke is the logical pivot away from Carrasco, but the salary savings isn’t drastic on FanDuel or DraftKings. Pro subscribers can also view how other DFS players approached the main slate via our new DFS Contests Dashboard.
Value
CC Sabathia possesses the best overall recent Statcast data on the slate, and he costs no more than $8,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel. The Yankees and Rays will play at Citi Field, and in two road games against the Rays, Sabathia posted 16.25 and 22.25 DraftKings points. Park Factors for left-handed pitchers at Citi Field have ranged between 61 and 68 over the past two seasons. That’s a sharp drop-off from 81 to 96 at Tropicana Field over the same time frame, but Sabathia has performed slightly better away from Yankee Stadium this season. The Rays have the third-highest strikeout rate, second-highest soft contact rate, and fourth-lowest wOBA against left-handers this season. Further, left-handed starters have averaged the highest DraftKings GPP ownership and fourth-highest Consistency Rating against the Rays. Sabathia will likely be among the highest-owned SP2s in most formats.
Fastballs
Brandon Woodruff: He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in four career starts. The Pirates are presently implied to score 4.0 runs, and right-handed pitchers have averaged a +2.60 DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Pirates at home when dealing with a similar opponent implied total this year.
Jason Hammel: He’s one of four pitchers facing a team implied to score no more than 3.9 runs, and he’s provided between 10 and 20 DraftKings points in 12 straight starts. Prior to the White Sox’s recent offensive explosion — scoring a combined 12 earned runs against Jeff Samardzija and Madison Bumgarner over the weekend — pitchers had averaged a +4.07 DraftKings Plus/Minus against them over the previous 17 games.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated FantasyDraft stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Blue Jays:
Orioles righty Ubaldo Jimenez has allowed 16 runs and five homers in his previous three starts, and he’s allowed 17 stolen bases this season. Ezequiel Carrera, one of the team’s few stolen base threats, is the cheapest projected leadoff hitter by a fair margin, and Miguel Montero has been exceptionally unlucky according to his +79 Recent Batted Ball Luck. Both help reduce the overall cost of the six-man stack, alleviating the compulsion to fade Carrasco. Josh Donaldson could return to the lineup after missing the past four games, but his presence isn’t required to follow through on a Blue Jays stack. Jimenez has the third-highest WHIP and HR/9 rate on the slate, and left-handed hitters have dominated Jimenez this season to the tune of a 2.75 HR/9 rate, 0.410 wOBA, and +2.82 FantasyDraft Plus/Minus.
The Blue Jays also have the highest-rated stack in the CSURAM88 Model, but the Diamondbacks aren’t far behind in cumulative rating:
Many of the hitters are already projected for higher than average GPP ownership, and four of the five hitters have a positive batted ball distance differential or positive hard hit rate differential. J.D. Martinez has unrivaled recent Statcast data, and in the 13 games Chris Iannetta has hit second, he’s averaged a +2.99 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 10.6 percent GPP ownership. Martinez, Iannetta, and Paul Goldschmidt lead all hitters in recent hard hit rate, and Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland has actually been worse away from Coors Field, mainly against right-handed hitters. Despite reducing hitters to a 181-foot batted ball distance and 20 percent fly ball rate in his last two starts — both at home — Freeland has allowed a 40 percent recent hard hit rate and slate-high 0.416 wOBA. When considering GPP stacks, the Diamondbacks should be near the top of the heap.
Batters
The Brewers have been solid investments against left-handed starters this season, averaging a +1.66 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 46.1 percent Consistency Rating — top-three marks. Jesus Aguilar leads all Brewers (minimum 10 games) against lefties with a +4.94 FanDuel Plus/Minus, and he’s extremely underpriced at $2,500. He also ranks in the top-three among available first basemen with a 55 percent fly ball and hard hit rate over the last 15 days. Travis Shaw ranks second on the Brewers in Plus/Minus, and his recent batted ball distance of 251 feet and hard hit rate of 47 percent are top-two marks at third base. A two-man or full Brewers stack warrant consideration in most formats.
The Indians may not have the highest-rated stacks in the Bales or CSURAM88 Models, but they are implied to score a slate-high 5.6 runs and are facing a rookie pitcher who has had marginal success in the minors. The four hitters with projected GPP ownership greater than eight percent belong to the Indians, and four of the six most-expensive hitters on DraftKing are Indians, all of whom cost at least $5,000. The decision may ultimately boil down to the Indians pitcher or their hitters.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
