The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday’s seven-game main slate starts at 7:05 pm ET. The Marlins-Nationals game looks to have awful weather and could see a delay or possible postponement, potentially shrinking the player pool and removing an elite ace off the board.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers cost at least $9,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel. Two teams are implied to score at least 5.0 runs, and two others are implied to score less than 4.0 runs (per the Vegas Dashboard):
Max Scherzer is expected to return to the mound after being forced to leave his last start after one inning due to neck spasms. He’s the top option on the slate, and he costs no more than $11,100 on FanDuel for the third time this season. However, Scherzer may not even pitch tonight should he suffer a last-minute setback or if the game is postponed due to rain. Precipitation in the Washington, D.C. area is projected around 46 percent this evening, limiting Scherzer’s current appeal to guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Scherzer leads all pitchers with an opponent implied total of 2.8 runs, moneyline odds of -315, and a K Prediction of 10.1 — a number 3.6 points higher than the next closest. When Scherzer faced the Marlins prior to his 1.0-inning outing last Tuesday, he didn’t allow an earned run in 8.0 innings while striking out 11. His upside is tremendous, and pitchers with similar K Predictions have been highly-owned and extremely valuable (per our Trends tool):
Scherzer has accounted for 20 percent of the matches for this trend, and he’s averaged 27.93 DraftKings points with a 69.7 percent Consistency Rating in those situations. He’s facing a projected Marlins lineup with the highest SO/AB and second-lowest wOBA on the slate, which would normally result in him being the cash-game lock. In this case, the projected precipitation is concerning enough to consider alternatives. If the forecast clears up, expect Scherzer to claim the highest ownership in all formats, which Pro Subscribers can access shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Jake Arrieta is facing a Giants team implied to score 3.5 runs — the same Giants team that has scored at least five runs in five of their last seven games. Right-handed starters have averaged a negative DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Giants since the beginning of June — following two months of a +2.32 DraftKings Plus/Minus average. Even though pitchers haven’t maintained their productivity, the Giants offense has still struggled in noteworthy categories, including ranking bottom-five in runs, wOBA, and ISO over the last month. They have the lowest wOBA over the past 12 months for a projected lineup by a considerable margin.
Arrieta hasn’t allowed more than three runs in eight of his last nine starts, and he may actually vault into the top cash-game option because of the weather concerns at Nationals Park. His recent Statcast data is solid but not outstanding, and he ranks in the top-two in Park Factor (94) and moneyline odds (-173). The group of pitchers with similar salaries, opponent implied totals, Park Factors, and moneyline odds have averaged 0.95 points less than Arrieta’s salary-implied point total:
Arrieta has averaged 14.83 DraftKings points in three instances, all of which have come against the Pirates, a team he has historically struggled against. The main inhibitors of Arrieta’s upside are the Giants’ low strikeout rate and his -1.65 FanDuel Plus/Minus on the road since the start of 2016. If the Marlins-Nationals game gets postponed, Arrieta will likely be one of the highest-owned players. If their forecast looks better, Arrieta, who costs a season-high $11,600 on DraftKings, may be over-owned in GPPs and replaced by Scherzer as the top option in cash games. Since the upside drop-off after Scherzer and Arrieta is cataclysmic, rostering Arrieta as a pivot in case Scherzer exits early once more could be a viable strategy in GPPs.
Values
Carlos Martinez costs a season-low $8,200 on DraftKings and is thus significantly cheaper than Scherzer and Arrieta. Of the three, Martinez has superior recent Statcast data and has generated a 65 percent ground ball rate in his last two games. The current Royals roster has averaged the seventh-lowest wOBA but sixth-lowest strikeout rate against righties this season. While that latter point is cause for concern, Martinez claims the third-highest K Prediction on the slate. He’s also averaged a solid +3.93 DraftKings Plus/Minus and +6.69 FanDuel Plus/Minus on the road during his career. Right-handed pitchers within Martinez’s salary range on FanDuel have averaged a +1.90 FanDuel Plus/Minus and league-high 64.6 percent Consistency Rating against the Royals this year. It will be difficult to ignore Martinez — specifically as an SP2 — at his reduced salary.
Trevor Williams leads all pitchers on the slate with a 186-foot batted ball distance allowed, 67 percent ground ball rate, 16 percent hard hit rate, and 55 DraftKings Recent Batted Ball score over the past 15 days. The opposing Tigers are implied to score 4.0 runs — the second-lowest mark on the slate — and only one hitter in their projected lineup has a positive recent batted ball distance differential. Williams is among the cheapest pitchers on the slate at $6,200 on DraftKings and $7,000 on FanDuel, and a 4.0 opponent implied run total is the lowest he’s possessed in his career. Williams doesn’t offer ridiculous upside, but he’s a cost-effective punt whose DraftKings salary-implied point total of 12.0 has been exceeded or narrowly missed in seven of his last eight games.
Fastball
Brent Suter: He could face a Twins lineup without Miguel Sano and Brian Dozier, the two hitters who lead the team in wOBA and ISO against left-handed pitchers this season. It’s an extremely small sample, but the Twins have the sixth-highest strikeout rate and fourth-lowest wOBA since the All-Star break.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated FantasyDraft stack in the Bales Model belongs the Angels, who is not one of the two teams presently implied to score at least 5.0 runs:
Cameron Maybin is expected to return from the disabled list, and he’s projected to bat leadoff against a pitcher in Dylan Bundy who has allowed a 50 percent fly ball rate in his last two starts. After not allowing more than three runs in 11 of his first 13 starts this season, Bundy has surrendered almost half of his 21 home runs allowed and at least five runs in five of his last eight outings. He’s also posted bad marks on the road this season, and hitters in the first four spots of the batting order have averaged a +1.31 FantasyDraft Plus/Minus against Bundy at home. Only three hitters have recorded zero points against Bundy from the top of the order, and Kole Calhoun is an extremely cheap option at $6,000 — nearly half Mike Trout‘s salary. Trout costs more than $11,000 for the fourth time this season, but since the rest of the hitters in the stack cost no more than $7,200, the collection of hitters is relatively cheap.
The top-rated DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model for the main slate belongs to the Padres; that’s a sentence I did not imagine writing in 2017.
Tim Adleman has allowed at least three runs in eight straight starts, and he has the worst recent Statcast on the slate. He’s also allowed 24 homers this season — the third-most in the National League — and at least one in 12 consecutive outings. The Padres, who are one of the worst offenses in the league, are implied to score at least 4.6 runs for the 11th time this season; they’re playing in a ballpark that has allowed the most total home runs and home runs per game this season. Left-handed hitters have been successful against Adleman this season, averaging a +2.60 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 55.6 percent Consistency Rating. Lefty Carlos Asuaje, one of the highest-rated hitters in the model, leads the Padres with a 245-foot batted ball distance and 61 percent fly ball rate in the last 13 games. He’s in a great position to exploit Adleman’s deficiencies with his team-high 0.356 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months.
Batters
The Cubs have scored at least five runs in nine of their last 10 games against left-handed starters, and they have the third-highest wOBA, fifth-highest ISO, and highest walk rate against lefties this season. They’ll receive a significant drop in Park Factor, which could reduce overall ownership. However, rostering Cubs in cash games is worth considering based on their track record against left-handed starters:
Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Willson Contreras have led the Cubs in average Plus/Minus against lefties this season. Baez has the highest FanDuel Consistency Rating at 70.8 percent, Rizzo is a reverse-splits lefty facing a pitcher who has allowed a 0.454 wOBA to lefties this season, and Contreras has been phenomenal on the road, averaging a +4.59 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 50 percent Consistency Rating.
The Cardinals’ implied total has increased 0.7 runs since the line opened, and they lead all teams with an 83 FanDuel Team Value Rating. Ian Kennedy has the highest fly ball rate allowed over the past 12 months, and Jose Martinez leads all hitters with 11 Pro Trends and a 261-foot recent batted ball distance. He’s quite cheap on FanDuel at $2,100, and he leads the Cardinals with a recent fly ball rate of 50 percent and a recent hard hit rate of 56 percent. He’ll be a solid value option in GPPs.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
