The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday provides a seven-game main slate on DraftKings and an eight-game main slate on FanDuel. Both begin at 7:05 pm ET, and DraftKings excludes the second game of the Twins-White Sox doubleheader.
Pitchers
Studs
Only two pitchers cost more than $9,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel, and Alex Wood is the only one who exceeds the threshold on both sites:
Wood costs a career-high $12,100 on DraftKings, and his recent performance hasn’t dictated a commensurate salary. The same applies to Cole Hamels, who costs $1,600 more than he has in any other start this season. Consider these punitive taxes on a slate where the alternatives are appropriately priced and offer serious bust potential combined with a low floor.
Wood is one of two pitchers facing a team implied to score less than 4.0 runs (per the Vegas Dashboard), but pitchers with a similar salary and opponent implied total (3.9) have averaged a -0.32 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool), indicating they’ve been poor investments at such a lofty salary. Left-handed starters haven’t fared any better against the Pirates this season:
The Pirates’ projected lineup has registered a bottom-10 strikeout rate and top-12 ISO and wOBA marks against lefties this season, but in his only start against them, Wood struck out 11 in 5.0 innings and tallied 35.45 DraftKings points. Another positive indicator for Wood is that the Pirates were forced to fly to and from Williamsport over the last two days.
Wood hasn’t tossed more than 88 pitches in his last three starts, culminating in a combined 12 strikeouts. Neither of his last three opponents ranked in the top-10 in walk rate against lefties this season, unlike the Pirates, who have the seventh-highest walk rate and fourth-highest walk-to-strikeout rate against left-handers. Wood is clearly the best pitcher on the slate, but he’s failed to punch out more than six hitters in six starts after the All-Star break, during which time his wOBA allowed has risen 100 percentage points and his K/9 rate has decreased over four points since the first half. His salary has risen as his productivity has begun to wane, and it’s possible he’s starting to wear down.
Because he has the highest upside of any pitcher on the slate, he’ll likely receive plenty of ownership in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). However, his DraftKings salary is unworthy of someone with Wood’s recent form. Fading him on that platform in GPPs has merit, and with a 12 percent chance of precipitation at PNC Park, weather may interfere with his outing. Since there are no other expensive pitchers worth considering, paying down at SP2 will be the norm, thus allowing enough room to splurge on Wood. Pro subscribers can access ownership data shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Hamels has some of the best recent Statcast data on the slate, and he’s facing an Angels team that ranks in the bottom-two in ISO and wOBA against lefties this season. However, he has a putrid 4.6 K Prediction and is facing a team implied to score 4.7 runs — two data points unfitting of a pitcher priced above $11,000 on DraftKings. Only 19 pitchers have had similar data when priced within $1,000 of Hamels’ salary, and they’ve averaged a -4.51 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 31.6 percent Consistency Rating.
We’ve established Hamels is overpriced on DraftKings based on his peripherals, but he’s the third-most expensive pitcher on FanDuel at $8,600. In two starts against the Angels this season, he allowed one run in 14.2 innings and posted 37.0 and 51.0 FanDuel points. Hamels is a pure contrarian play this evening on FanDuel and nearly unplayable on DraftKings.
Pro subscribers can also see how other DFS players approached pitchers on the slate via our new DFS Contests Dashboard.
Value
Tyler Skaggs is one of two pitchers facing a team implied to score less than 4.0 runs, and he possesses a comparable K Prediction and Park Factor to Wood’s. He also costs $6,700 on DraftKings — about half of Wood’s salary — and their recent Statcast data is fairly similar. Since returning from the disabled list three starts ago, Skaggs has tossed no more than 91 pitches, potentially reducing his upside. Nonetheless, home pitchers have averaged the fifth-highest average DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Rangers this season:
Skaggs has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last six starts, and he’s already faced the Rangers twice this season with mixed results. In their recent meeting in Texas, he struck out six in 5.0 innings of one-run ball. Prior to that, he allowed a season-high five runs at home and still struck out five in 5.0 innings. Cheap pitchers with a similar K Prediction — his 6.7 mark is the second-highest on the slate — and opponent implied total have averaged a +2.10 DraftKings Plus/Minus; Skaggs is a viable pitcher in all formats given the alternatives today.
Wade Miley may have the second-highest WHIP over the last 12 months, but he’s the heaviest favorite today with -158 moneyline odds, and left-handed pitchers have been solid investments against the Athletics this season:
Pitchers with similarly-high WHIPs and moneyline odds have averaged a +2.33 DraftKings Plus/Minus, and Miley has matched the trend six times with solid results: a +7.74 DraftKings Plus/Minus with an 83.3 percent Consistency Rating. Miley’s recent Statcast data is the best on the slate, and he costs $200 less than Skaggs on FanDuel and DraftKings. Pivoting to Miley in order to spend a few extra hundred dollars on a hitter is a worthy concession if it gets you your preferred bat.
Fastballs
Taijuan Walker: As the Mets continue to trade away veterans, their offense continues to get worse. The Mets have the third-highest strikeout rate and fourth-lowest wOBA in August. Pitchers have averaged a +2.71 DraftKings Plus/Minus against them this month, and yet they’ve posted 6.7 percent average DraftKings GPP ownership.
Zach Davies: He’s been much more reliable on the road this season, averaging 20.8 DraftKings points in his last five outings away from Miller Park. Overall, he’s averaged a +1.37 DraftKings Plus/Minus as a visitor this year, and he’s facing a Giants team implied to score 4.1 runs, the third-lowest mark on the main slate. His strikeout upside is concerning, but he’s facing a projected Giants lineup with a slate-low 0.267 wOBA.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated DraftKings stack in the Bales Model belongs the Orioles, who have the highest implied team total in the main slate (5.9 runs):
Athletics right-hander Chris Smith has done well to eat innings for the Athletics this season, but he’s also allowed plenty of runs and has been hit hard against righties in his seven appearances. Eight of the nine homers he’s allowed have been to right-handed hitters, and in his last two outings, he’s allowed a 246-foot batted ball distance and 48 percent fly ball and hard hit rates — the highest figures on the slate. One of those starts came against the Orioles, who pummeled him for four homers in 6.0 innings. Trey Mancini homered off Smith twice, Tim Beckham leads all shortstops with a 225-foot batted ball distance and 41 percent fly ball rate over the last two weeks, and the five hitters in this stack have averaged a +1.35 DraftKings Plus/Minus when the Orioles have been implied for a comparable team total this season. The weak pitching cohort will likely boost ownership for Orioles hitters in all formats.
Even though Mariners manager Scott Servais doesn’t plan on using Nelson Cruz in the outfield in a National League park, the Mariners still have the highest-rated FantasyDraft stack in the CSURAM88 Model:
Braves right-hander Michael Foltynewicz has allowed 14 combined runs in his last two starts, one of which occurred at Coors Field. Prior to his recent collapse, he struck out 11 Marlins and allowed five runs to the Phillies. Foltynewicz’s volatility will be on display this evening, and over the last two seasons, left-handed hitters in the top-six spots in the batting order have averaged a +0.66 FantasyDraft Plus/Minus against him. This current stack is laden with lefties, who have a higher hard hit and fly ball rate against Foltynewicz compared to right-handed batters. Yonder Alonso has been relatively unlucky despite recording a hit in seven straight games. His FantasyDraft Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +76 is the sixth-highest on the slate, and he ranks sixth in recent batted ball distance.
Batters
Four Dodgers rank in the top-seven in recent batted ball distance, and the three in the projected lineup — Curtis Granderson, Adrian Gonzalez, and Justin Turner — have a batted ball distance of at least 253 feet over the last 15 days. Gonzalez has played only three games since coming off the disabled list, but he’s also been the unluckiest hitter on the slate with a +77 Recent Batted Ball Luck on FanDuel. Turner and Granderson have recorded a recent fly ball rate of at least 60 percent, ranking in the top-three on the slate, and Granderson leads them all with 10 FanDuel Pro Trends and 11 DraftKings Pro Trends. Pirates right-hander Gerrit Cole has allowed a 45 percent recent fly ball rate — an increase over his 12-month average of 34 percent. He’s allowed at least one home run in nine of his last 11 starts, and he’s facing a team with the second-highest ISO and highest hard hit and fly ball rates since the All-Star break.
The Braves currently have the second-highest FanDuel Team Value Rating, and they’re one of three teams implied to score 4.8 runs — the third-highest mark on the slate. Ozzie Albies is among the highest-rated hitters on the slate, and he’s projected to bat leadoff with a FanDuel salary of $2,800. His only two hits against left-handed pitchers in his 10 at-bats have been home runs, and Mariners lefty Andrew Albers has the highest HR/9 rate (2.941) on the slate. Should the Braves hit him first, he may provide solid value, as leadoff hitters with similar salaries and implied run totals have averaged a +1.96 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 51.5 percent Consistency Rating.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
