The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday provides a 10-game main slate beginning at 7:07 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Two pitchers cost more than $9,000 on DraftKings, and Zack Greinke is the only one priced above $9,000 on FanDuel. ‘Stud’ is a generous term for anyone in the main slate. No pitcher is facing a team presently implied to score less than 4.0 runs (per the Vegas Dashboard), two of them have allowed a recent batted ball distance less than 200 feet, and only seven claim a negative recent batted ball distance differential.
Greinke and Jose Quintana currently lead all pitchers in moneyline odds and Pro Trends, but none of those data points are considered elite. These guys are the most expensive options, and we’ll break down their merits due to lack of viable alternatives.
Greinke has struck out at least eight batters in three consecutive starts, but he’s allowed the fourth-highest recent batted ball distance and hard hit rate on a slate where pitching is weak. Additionally, he’s facing an Astros team with the lowest strikeout rate and highest wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season. That said, the Astros are implied to score no more than 4.1 runs for the 12th time this season, and pitchers facing the Astros who’ve possessed a similar opponent implied total have actually provided value (per our Trends tool):
Greinke has been excellent at home, averaging a +7.98 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 79.6 percent Consistency Rating this season. Over the last 12 Chase Field starts, he’s averaged 27.84 DraftKings points and produced no less than 19.65 points. Two of those outings were against teams in the bottom-seven in strikeout rate against righties this season, including the Pirates, who have the second-lowest mark. Spending up on pitching could be a contrarian move in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), but since Greinke’s strikeout upside is capped, he may have more value in cash games due to his consistent performance at home. Expect low average ownership, which Pro subscribers can access shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard. They can also see how other DFS players approached pitchers on the slate via our new DFS Contests Dashboard.
The wind is projected to blow eight MPH toward right-center field at Wrigley Field, and rain is in the forecast, which definitely hurts Quintana’s cash-game appeal. Still, he is facing a Reds team implied to score a slate-low 4.0 runs, and he currently has the second-highest K Prediction (7.5) — his fifth-highest mark in our database. Home pitchers with similar K Predictions and moneyline odds have been exceptional on FanDuel:
Quintana is severely overpriced on DraftKings, but his $8,400 FanDuel salary is reasonable. He’s averaged 35.60 FanDuel points in five starts since joining the Cubs, and left-handed starters have averaged a +2.90 FanDuel Plus/Minus against the Reds this season. He’s facing a projected Reds lineup with the second-highest SO/AB rate but the seventh-highest ISO against left-handers this season. He’s the primary pivot to Greinke in GPPs on DraftKings, and as long as the rain isn’t detrimental to tonight’s game, he should be among the highest-owned pitchers on FanDuel in cash games.
Value
Since all but one pitcher costs more than $9,000 on both sites, many of tonight’s options could qualify as values. Alas, many of them offer minimal stability in cash games, and Ty Blach, who’s struck out no more than four batters in five of his last six starts, leads all pitchers with a 100 percent FanDuel Consistency Rating over the past month. It’s a bleak slate. Waiting until after you’ve filled your roster with an SP1 and all hitters may be the easiest way to select an SP2.
Jerad Eickhoff presently leads all pitchers with an 8.2 K Prediction — his second-highest in our database — and he’s actually an underdog against the Padres. The previous 17 right-handed underdogs, only one of whom had a higher K Prediction than Eickhoff’s, averaged a +0.99 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Since the All-Star break, righties have averaged a -0.31 DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Padres. During that span, the Padres have averaged the 11th-highest wOBA and eighth-highest ISO against right-handers, but they’ve remained a valuable strikeout resource with the eighth-highest K rate. Eickhoff is a considerably cheap underdog with a solid K Prediction, and he’s one of a few pitchers who may actually challenge Greinke and Quintana for GPP ownership. His recent Statcast data is alarming, but he’s already recorded 27.05 DraftKings points against the Padres last month in just 5.0 innings. That’s enough on this slate to warrant consideration in all formats.
Fastballs
Kevin Gausman: Gausman is a pitcher with no consistency. He’s either tossing shutouts or getting shelled. Over the past 10 games, he’s averaged a +10.11 FanDuel Plus/Minus, but he has also allowed games of four, five, and eight runs during that stretch. You can never be sure which Gausman will appear, but he’s shown a remarkable ceiling lately, exceeding 27.0 DraftKings points in four of his last five outings.
Jake Junis: He’s not an elite strikeout pitcher, but he’s facing a current Athletics roster with the highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season. The Athletics also have the third-highest ISO against righties, which limits Junis to GPPs as a punt SP2 option. He’s cheap enough for that designation at $5,600 on DraftKings, and he has the fifth-highest K Prediction on the slate.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated FantasyDraft stack in the Bales Model belongs the Diamondbacks, one of 10 teams presently implied to score at least 5.0 runs:
Astros righty Collin McHugh is one start removed from allowing seven runs to a White Sox team with the second-lowest wOBA against right-handed pitchers, and McHugh has allowed four homers in four starts this season. Dating back to last season, McHugh has posted poor marks on the road, specifically against left-handed hitters. The Diamondbacks have averaged the second-highest FantasyDraft Plus/Minus (+1.31) this season, and those included in the stack have supplied a +1.79 FantasyDraft Plus/Minus with a 50.9 percent Consistency Rating and 21.9 percent GPP ownership. Paul Goldschmidt is the keystone of this stack. He’s averaged a 247-foot recent batted ball distance, 50 percent hard hit rate, 52 percent monthly Consistency; he has homered in three of the last four games. This combination of hitters is the fifth-most expensive stack on the slate, and it will likely work as a pivot in GPPs since the Rockies are presently implied to score 6.7 runs.
The Rays, also one of the 10 teams implied to score at least 5.0 runs, have the highest-rated DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model:
This quintet is quite inexpensive, which may not be the preferred route in most formats since paying up for pitching isn’t required. Nonetheless, Corey Dickerson is the highest-rated hitter in the model on a slate with Coors Field in play. He’s averaged a -3.55 DraftKings Plus/Minus over the last 10 games, but he’s also been rather unlucky based on his +35 Recent Batted Ball Luck score. Blue Jays righty Nick Tepesch has allowed slate-high marks of a 0.538 wOBA and 0.524 ISO over the last 15 days, and he’s pitched only 10 innings over the past three seasons. Tepesch may be a pitcher worth picking on, especially in GPPs since ownership will likely filter to Coors Field bats. This stack also leaves plenty of salary cap room to spend up on the two highest-priced pitchers on the slate, a tactic that will surely be outside the norm.
Batters
The Rockies are implied to score 6.5 runs and have the highest Team Value Ratings on both sites. The absence of elite pitching will likely result in their hitters having the highest average ownership. Nolan Arenado may not be available after suffering a left hand contusion yesterday, which will make it much easier salary-cap wise to roster Charlie Blackmon, who leads all hitters with a 64 percent FanDuel monthly Consistency Rating. When he’s led off against a right-handed pitcher at Coors Field, he’s been a must-own in cash games:
Braves starter Julio Teheran has allowed 21 stolen bases and 28 home runs this year. Even though he’s fared better away from SunTrust Park, hitters with a Park Factor of at least 50 have averaged a +4.90 FanDuel Plus/Minus against Teheran this season. Hitters at Coors possess a 100 Park Factor and 98 Weather Rating, and rostering a few Braves hitters is another way to stay slightly contrarian while taking advantage of Coors Field.
The hitting conditions at Globe Life Park in Arlington are once again pristine. Hitters from both teams have an 87 Weather Rating, and the Rangers have averaged a +1.50 FanDuel Plus/Minus under similar circumstances this season. Joey Gallo and Rougned Odor lead all hitters in Pro Trends, and when he’s not striking out, Gallo has registered a 270-foot batted ball distance, 100 MPH exit velocity, 48 percent fly ball rate, and 55 percent hard hit rate in his last 13 games. Only Giancarlo Stanton, who’s in a great spot against a left-handed pitcher, has similar recent marks on the slate, and hitters with Gallo’s comparable Statcast data have plenty of success:
The Cubs are implied to score 5.7 runs, the second-highest mark in the main slate, and they are facing a pitcher in Asher Wojciechowski who has allowed a slate-high 56 percent fly ball rate in his last two starts. Since the wind is projected to blow out to right-center field, Cubs hitters offer serious home run upside. If Arenado gets ruled out, Kris Bryant becomes the immediate next target at third base. He’s notched three hits in each of his last three games, and the one aspect that could limit his cash-game appeal is the projected 18 percent chance of precipitation. Kyle Schwarber leads the Cubs with a 53 percent recent fly ball and hard hit rate, but he’s struck out in his last seven plate appearances. His utilization should be limited to GPPs.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
