The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday offers a 12-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers cost more than $9,000 on DraftKings, and only two of them are priced above $9,000 on FanDuel. In terms of slates, this group of pitchers is the equivalent of AMC’s original series Low Winter Sun:
Lance McCullers costs a career-high $11,500 on DraftKings (per our Trends tool) and is the most-expensive pitcher by at least $1,700. Conversely, he’s the second-most expensive pitcher on FanDuel at $9,100. McCullers projects as the most popular option because of his long-term form and the inferior alternatives. However, since returning from the disabled list, McCullers has failed to pitch more than 5.1 innings, and he’s allowed eight combined runs over his last two outings.
McCullers leads all pitchers with a 7.1 K Prediction, and the Astros lead all teams with -214 moneyline odds and a 3.6 opponent implied run total (per the Vegas Dashboard). Comparably-high marks have historically resulted in a +7.36 FanDuel Plus/Minus and a 71.0 percent Consistency Rating. In McCuller’s case, he’s averaged 42.67 FanDuel points in three such starts, and his GPP ownership in the last two exceeded 33 percent.
His manageable FanDuel salary makes him the preeminent cash-game option. Based on his DraftKings output at Minute Maid Park, he may not see a noticeable dip in ownership despite the salary hike:
McCullers has historically averaged 38.5 percent DraftKings GPP ownership for home starts, and he could approach that level again on such a dour slate. Since he’ll be the chalk, fading him in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) actually carries merit from an ownership perspective. Even though he limited the Blue Jays to a five percent fly ball rate and 15 percent hard hit rate in his last outing, he still surrendered five runs and nine hits. He’s not immune from an occasional outlier performance, and with Coors Field in play, the ownership tug-of-war may boil down to Rockies hitters versus McCullers. Pro Subscribers can access ownership percentages shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Based on salary, Adam Wainwright and Jon Lester could be considered studs. Truthfully, they’ve averaged a combined -2.79 FanDuel Plus/Minus this season, and neither has met salary-based expectations in even 50 percent of starts. It’s clear to see why McCullers will be highly-owned today.
Lester has the advantage over Wainwright in terms of Vegas data; his team is favored, whereas Wainwright is currently a dog. The Braves are presently implied to score 4.0 runs, the second-lowest mark in the slate, but they have actually performed well against left-handed pitchers this season. They have the sixth-lowest strikeout rate and ninth-highest wOBA against lefties; when facing the Braves this season, left-handers have averaged a -1.62 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Lester has his own problems as well after allowing nine combined runs in his last two starts and failing to record three outs in his most recent outing.
Wainwright distances himself from Lester after exceeding salary-based expectations in three of his last four starts and striking out at least seven hitters in three straight outings. Although they have eerily similar recent Statcast data, Wainwright’s 24 percent recent hard hit rate outshines Lester’s 40 percent mark. Wainwright, much like McCullers, has been priced up to a season-high of $9,100 on DraftKings, which is a high price for a pitcher with an opponent implied total of 4.7 runs.
The Cubs-Braves match contains the highest chance of precipitation, further hurting Lester’s viability in cash games. Wainwright is making a second consecutive start against the Mets, and in the last outing, he struck out seven in 6.2 innings and provided 48.0 FanDuel points. Both pitchers profile as contrarian plays in GPPs, and based on Lester’s superior Vegas data, Wainwright may warrant more consideration as a true pivot.
Value
Since nearly every pitcher costs less than $9,000, many of them can be considered as values. That said, only one offense is implied to score less than 4.0 runs and only one pitcher has a K Prediction north of 6.7.
Chad Kuhl claims the 6.7 K Prediction, his highest in our database and more than he’s struck out in a game this season, and he’s facing a team implied to score 4.3 runs. On this slate, those are attractive marks. His salary has dropped to $5,600 on DraftKings, likely cementing his fate as the popular SP2. In 8.0 innings against the Brewers this season, Kuhl allowed two combined runs and struck out eight batters. Many of his starts have ended with single-digit DraftKings points, but he’s implied to score only 11.13 DraftKings points tonight, a mark he’s missed by less than three points five times this season. Cheap pitchers with similar K Predictions and Vegas data have been solid when favored:
Tom Koehler costs $300 more than Kuhl on DraftKings and is facing a Phillies team implied to score 4.1 runs. He has a similar K Prediction and solid Park Factor compared to that of Kuhl, and he’s actually struck out seven hitters in two games this season. Koehler also matches Kuhl’s trend above. Since the beginning of May, right-handed pitchers have averaged a league-best +2.95 DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Phillies, a team with the third-lowest wOBA and second-lowest ISO against right-handers this season. Still, Koehler doesn’t offer much safety in cash games: He’s allowed at least three runs in nine straight starts, a stretch in which he’s exceeded 9.0 DraftKings points only twice.
Fastballs
Luis Perdomo: A sure-fire way to snag a pitcher at minimal ownership is when he’s pitching at Coors Field. Perdomo is an elite ground ball pitcher, and similar pitchers have actually provided some value in Colorado: They’ve averaged a 56 percent DraftKings Consistency Rating. Since he costs $4,900 on DraftKings, Perdomo is on the hook for 10.13 DraftKings points, a mark he’s exceeded in 12 out of 15 starts this year.
Marcus Stroman: He’s pitched at least 6.0 innings in 14 of 18 starts this season, and among pitchers with at least two starts over the fortnight, he provides the best recent Statcast data: He’s limited hitters to a 62 percent ground ball rate and a 184-foot batted ball distance.
Adalberto Mejia: He’s the only pitcher on the slate with a 100 percent DraftKings Consistency Rating over the past month. Left-handed pitchers have averaged a +3.14 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 64.0 percent Consistency Rating against the Yankees this season.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. One of the top-rated FantasyDraft stacks in the Bales Model belongs to Padres, a team implied to score at least 4.8 runs for the sixth time this season:
A road team implied to score fewer than 5.0 runs at Coors Field has been a rare occurrence since the beginning of 2016, and when the Padres faced such a distinction in April, they averaged collective 20.9 percent FantasyDraft GPP ownership. They are among the cheapest stacks on the slate despite playing at Coors Field, and this grouping includes a questionable Austin Hedges. Should Hedges be ruled out for the third straight game, consider including Hector Sanchez, who has homered in two straight games at Petco Park and hit cleanup on Sunday. Since the Padres have been among the worst offenses this season and pitchers aren’t expensive, a Padres stack may actually offer value in GPPs as a contrarian play.
The top-rated stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belong to the Padres and Orioles, one stack already covered and one stack discussed by Justin Bailey in the MLB Pro Model Stacks article. The next highest-rated DraftKings stack is an equally-cheap 1-2-3-4-5 Rangers combination:
Orioles right-hander Chris Tillman has allowed 11 home runs in his last seven starts, and he ranks last on the slate with a 1.848 WHIP over the past 12 months. This group of hitters has been much more successful against right-handed pitchers since last season, averaging a decent +0.50 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Each hitter in the stack has averaged a positive Plus/Minus over that stretch, and four of the five hitters have a recent hard hit rate of at least 40 percent and positive Statcast differentials in all three categories. The left-handed hitters benefit greatly at Camden Yards with a 78 Park Factor, and with most of the ownership likely belonging to the Rockies, pivoting to a competent offense against a hittable pitcher should provide a great deal of leverage.
Batters
Brandon Guyer is expected to start for the second straight game because the Indians are facing a left-handed pitcher. He’s extremely cheap for a projected leadoff hitter — $2,900 on DraftKings and $2,200 on FanDuel — and Giants lefty Matt Moore allowed a 241-foot batted ball distance in his last start. The Indians are implied to score only 4.5 runs, which will likely reduce their overall appeal, but after struggling against lefties for the first third of the season (image below), they’ve emerged as solid stacking options with Guyer at the forefront:
Julio Teheran has allowed 12 stolen bases this season, and 13 of his 20 home runs allowed have come at SunTrust Park, where he sports a 1.64 WHIP. On the other side of the matchup is Lester, who has allowed 11 stolen bases but has also caught 11 batters stealing. Ender Inciarte leads all hitters from both clubs with a .393 wOBA and .117 SB/G rate, and he’s averaged a +3.60 FanDuel Plus/Minus over the past 10 starts. Ian Happ leads all hitters from either team with a .305 ISO against right-handed pitchers, and he’s averaged a +5.13 FanDuel Plus/Minus over the last 10 starts. Neither hitter is projected for excessive ownership, and since the Braves are implied to score 4.0 runs, their hitters likely won’t land on many radars. However, as already mentioned, lefties have struggled against the Braves this season, and Inciarte has averaged a team-best +5.51 FanDuel Plus/Minus against southpaws.
Jake Odorizzi has allowed a home run in 13 straight starts. Enter the tandem of Khris Davis and Yonder Alonso, both of whom cost $4,000 on DraftKings and no more than $3,800 on FanDuel. They lead the team in home runs this season, and among everyday Athletic hitters, they offer the highest wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitchers. When considering upside alone, both offer immense home run potential against a pitcher who allowed a 50 percent fly ball rate and 56 percent hard hit rate in his latest outing.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
