The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday’s seven-game slate starts at 7:10 pm ET and includes two games with projected precipitation between 50 and 65 percent. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
Studs
Two of the four most-expensive pitchers are presently underdogs, and three are facing teams implied to score between 4.2 and 4.3 runs (per the Vegas Dashboard):
Pitching is bleak on this slate, as only three teams are presently implied to score less than 4.0 runs and all of the games are projected to be close. The two games featuring three of the four teams with the highest-implied run totals could potentially get delayed or postponed, which doesn’t bode well for the hitters either.
Carlos Martinez currently leads all pitchers in K Prediction and moneyline odds, and he’s the only one who costs more than $9,000 on either site. His highest previous salary on DraftKings was $11,200; he exceeds that by $1,300 on this slate. He could be the beneficiary of a Reds lineup sans Billy Hamilton and Scott Schebler, both of whom sprained their left shoulders on Saturday and missed Sunday’s game. However, rain could diminish Martinez’s viability as a safe cash option.
Martinez has been much more successful on the road over the past three seasons, averaging a +5.08 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 71.9 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool), but he is pitching in a hitter’s ballpark with an inauspicious Weather Rating. Nonetheless, Martinez has displayed an aptitude for excelling in hitter’s ballparks, as his +7.29 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 15 starts with a Park Factor no greater than 50 is the best mark among pitchers with more than five such instances. He’s recorded an excellent 80 percent Consistency Rating in those games.
He’s the only starter today with 100 percent Consistency on FanDuel and DraftKings over the past month, and he’s recorded a quality start in seven straight outings, which includes a 44.0-point FanDuel performance at Coors Field.
Martinez offers significant salary savings on FanDuel with a 98 percent Bargain Rating, which may assist in spiking his guaranteed prize pool (GPP) ownership. He’s been a strong cash-game pitcher this season, and he’ll likely be the chalk on both sites (if the weather holds off) despite allowing a 45 percent hard hit rate and a +19-foot batted ball distance differential over his last two starts.
Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Jeff Samardzija costs $8,900 on FanDuel and DraftKings, and he presently has the third-highest K Prediction at 7.0. Prior to his last start, which lasted only 4.0 innings, Samardzija had pitched into the seventh inning and recorded at least eight strikeouts in five straight games. The Brewers have the second-highest strikeout percentage this season, and all but one of their projected hitters has a negative Recent Batted Ball Luck mark. Samardzija’s most concerning mark is a slate-worst 0.336 wOBA, but the Brewers have recorded the sixth-highest groundball rate against right-handed pitchers, which meshes well with Samardzija’s recent 47 percent groundball rate. One of five pitchers on the slate with at least 11 strikeouts in a game this season, Samardzija possesses plenty of upside to warrant consideration in GPPs.
Values
Half of today’s starters possess DraftKings Bargain Ratings of at least 66 percent, and only four have FanDuel Bargain Ratings greater than 60 percent.
Sean Manaea has recorded 55.0 FanDuel points in each of his last two starts. His past-year 8.77 SO/9 doesn’t stand out on the slate, but he ranks seventh among all pitchers this season with an 11.29 SO/9 against right-handed hitters. The Blue Jays’ projected lineup is filled with eight right-handed or switch hitters, which greatly benefits Manaea, who is tied for first with a 77 Park Factor and leads the slate with a 1.073 WHIP. He costs no more than $7,800 on DraftKings or FanDuel, and as the Athletics’ implied total continues to decrease, so too could Manaea’s projected ownership.
J.A. Happ opposes Manaea and the Athletics, and he was limited to 81 pitches in his first start off the disabled list. It’s unclear if he’ll have another pitch count. He leads all pitchers on the slate with a year-long 8.98 SO/9, and that mark has improved to 10.9 against right-handed hitters this season, which could be vital, as the Athletics’ projected lineup doesn’t possess a single left-handed hitter. The Athletics have recorded the third-highest strikeout percentage against left-handed pitchers this season but the second-best fly ball rate. Happ has been susceptible to the long ball this season, allowing two home runs in three of his four starts. Much like Manaea, Happ has the best Park Factor on the slate, but unlike Manaea, Happ’s 7.2 K Prediction is the second-highest mark on the slate. Pitchers with similar Park Factors, K Predictions, and salary have averaged a +2.98 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Fastballs
Dan Straily: The wind at Wrigley Field will likely favor the pitchers, as it’s expected to blow around 17 miles per hour toward the first base dugout. Straily has not pitched fewer than 5.0 innings in 10 straight starts, a stretch in which he’s allowed more than three runs just once. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in five straight starts, and he’s one of three pitchers facing a team with an implied total less than 4.0.
Hyun-jin Ryu: His recent Statcast data is solid compared to the rest of the field, and the Dodgers currently have the second-largest moneyline on the slate. Most importantly, among pitchers who cost less than $7,000, Ryu has the best K Prediction. Ryu may be better utilized in GPPs, as he hasn’t thrown more than 80 pitches in his last three starts, and the Nationals have the second-best wOBA and ISO marks against left-handed pitchers this season.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The Braves offer the highest-rated stacks in the CSURAM88 Model on both sites, and they’re one of only two teams presently implied to score more than 5.0 runs:
This four-man FanDuel stack represents one of the cheapest stacks comprised from the top-five hitters in projected lineups today. Foregoing Matt Kemp, who has recorded the Braves’ second-highest average ownership percentage this season, could be one way to differentiate your stack in GPPs, and Kemp has struggled to provide value at home with a -1.20 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 31.3 percent Consistency Rating. Phillies righty Nick Pivetta recently finished a two-week stretch in the minors, and prior to the demotion, he failed to pitch more than 5.0 innings in four starts. The Braves hitters own a high 94 Opponent Bullpen Rating, and even if they fail to knock Pivetta out early, the rain could limit his evening. The Phillies’ bullpen ranks in the bottom-10 in SO/9 and the top-10 in BB/9 — two advantageous marks for the Braves. The Phillies have also yielded the second-most home runs to left-handed batters this season.
The top-rated stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Cardinals, but they were covered by Joe Holka in today’s MLB Pro Model Stacks piece. Instead, let’s focus on a DraftKings stack with a high number of Pro Trends:
The Astros have the top-five four-man Pro Trend stacks on DraftKings, but the Phillies loom close and are relatively cheap compared to their 4.9 implied run total. The Phillies lead all teams with a 90 Team Value Rating, and they face one of the worst pitchers today in Bartolo Colon, who has allowed at least seven hits in eight straight starts and claims the second-worst recent wOBA allowed. Odubel Herrera leads all hitters on the slate with 11 Pro Trends and an 80 Recent Batted Ball Luck score, and he appears ready to break out, as he’s hit four doubles in the last two games. The 2-3-4-5 hitters from underdogs with similar Vegas percentile scores have averaged a +1.16 DraftKings Plus/Minus; the main concern for both the Phillies and Braves is the potentially poor weather.
Batters
Astros righty Mike Fiers had allowed at least one home run in seven straight starts prior to his last outing, and he’s also allowed eight stolen bases this season — the third-highest mark in the American League. Salvador Perez has been priced down to $2,900 on DraftKings, and his 249-foot recent batted ball distance ranks first among projected hitters. Even though he’s smashed the ball, the results have lagged behind, as he’s averaged a -3.84 DraftKings Plus/Minus over the last 10 games and failed to meet salary-based expectations eight times. Lorenzo Cain leads the Royals with 12 stolen bases this season and a 0.391 on-base percentage against right-handed pitchers, improving his stock as a potential GPP option.
Travis Shaw has the best Statcast differentials among third basemen, and he leads the cohort with six FanDuel Pro Trends. He costs the same as Kris Bryant, who rates higher in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models, and he’s facing right-handed pitcher Samardzija, who was covered above. Bryant may offer more name recognition (and ownership as a result), but Shaw has recorded a 47 percent monthly Consistency Rating on FanDuel.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
