The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday offers a two-game early slate at 3:40 pm ET and a six-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Five pitchers cost more than $9,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel, and Cole Hamels displaces Gio Gonzalez on FanDuel at $9,400. Cole is the only one with a FanDuel Bargain Rating less than 85 percent:
Chris Sale is the most expensive player on the main slate even though his salary has dropped below $13,000 on DraftKings for the third time in his last nine starts on DraftKings. He leads all pitchers in K Prediction and Pro Trends but is also facing a projected Twins lineup with the highest combined wOBA in the slate. Left-handed pitchers have averaged a -1.98 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 36.8 percent Consistency Rating against the Twins this season. Sale already bucked the trend with a 24.7-point DraftKings performance against the Twins in May, fanning 10 hitters on a team with the 10th-lowest strikeout rate against lefties.
Pitchers with Sale’s approximate salary, K Prediction, and opponent implied run total have historically averaged a +2.18 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 30.2 percent guaranteed prize pool (GPP) ownership rate (per our Trends tool). In Sale’s case, he’s been more consistent than the norm, but his upside has been nonexistent at his elevated salary:
Sale has allowed at least three runs in five of his last six starts, but he’s pitched at least 8.0 innings and struck out 10 in each of his last two games. Recent performance combined with his year-long dominance and solid peripherals will predictably make him the most sought-after pitcher on the slate. Pro subscribers can review Sale’s previous GPP ownership rates in our DFS Ownership Dashboard. They’re ridiculously high. Sale has the slate’s highest strikeout potential and Consistency Rating, increasing his cash-game appeal.
Carlos Carrasco has turned in consecutive stellar outings, racking up 17 combined strikeouts while allowing just one run in 12.1 innings. The turnaround has led to his second-highest DraftKings salary this season at $11,600, and he’s facing a Rangers squad with the third-lowest wOBA and highest strikeout rate on the road this year. Home pitchers have averaged the highest FanDuel GPP ownership against the Rangers this season as well as the sixth-highest Plus/Minus:
The Rangers-Indians contest has the highest chance of precipitation, but a postponement or mid-game delay doesn’t appear likely. Carrasco is one of four pitchers facing teams implied for no more 3.7 runs in the main slate, and he leads all pitchers in recent Statcast data. Over his last three outings, the most recent of which was a 10-strikeout affair, Carrasco has limited hitters to a 187-foot batted ball distance, 23 percent ground ball rate, and 88 mph exit velocity.
However, Carrasco has traditionally performed much better on the road over the past three seasons, and every home start during that stretch has come against teams implied for between 2.7 and 3.8 runs:
Carrasco’s recent form is enticing enough to pivot off Sale in GPPs, but Carrasco himself may warrant fade consideration on such a short slate.
Zach Greinke is the only pitcher facing a team with an implied run total under 4.0 in the early slate, and the Diamondbacks have a solid -221 moneyline. Greinke is at least $5,000 more than the other three pitchers on the slate, and he leads the bunch with a recent 56 percent ground ball rate, 87 mph exit velocity, and slate-low 0.288 opponent wOBA. The DraftKings trend for which Sale qualified also applies to Greinke, and he’ll likely be the most popular option in the early slate. However, rostering him will limit Diamondbacks stacks to three batters on FanDuel, which could reduce his ownership a little.
Value
Jeff Samardzija presently leads all pitchers in the main slate with a slate-low 3.5 implied run total. Samardzija has been a decent pitcher at AT&T Park since joining the Giants, and he’s facing a Rockies team with the third-lowest road ISO. In three home starts against the Rockies, Samardzija has averaged 23.83 DraftKings points. Even though one of his last two starts was at Coors Field, Samardzija has limited hitters to a 197-foot batted ball distance and 27 percent fly ball rate. He doesn’t offer significant strikeout potential, but he’s routinely pitched into the seventh inning this season and allowed more than three runs in only two of his last 11 starts.
Brandon Finnegan is the cheapest of four pitchers in the early slate, but he’s facing a Cardinals team with an implied total of 5.0 runs. He’ll make his first start in over two months due to a shoulder injury, and in four starts against the Cardinals last season, Finnegan averaged 17.8 DraftKings points — 6.38 points above today’s salary-based expectation — and three of the games had the Cardinals pegged for at least 5.0 runs. Finnegan has a high K Prediction of 7.3, and the Cardinals rank in the bottom third of the league in wOBA and ISO against lefties this season. For the third straight season, left-handed pitchers have averaged a positive DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Cardinals:
Fastball
Gio Gonzalez: He’s provided much more value at home the past three seasons, and he’s ramped up his productivity at Nationals Park this year with a +7.75 FanDuel Plus/Minus. He ranks second among pitchers in the main slate in K Prediction, but he’s allowed a 50 percent fly ball rate over his last two starts and is facing a team with an implied total of 4.3 runs.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top afternoon DraftKings stack in nearly every Player Model belongs to the Diamondbacks. It’s not difficult to imagine why: They lead the slate with an implied run total of 5.5 and FanDuel Team Value Rating of 84. Many of the top FanDuel stacks feature the top of the order, but TheSportsGeek Model spits out a slight variation that costs the exact same but will likely have lower ownership because it features No. 6 hitter Brandon Drury:
Paul Goldschmidt is an incredible resource at home, averaging a +6.06 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 70.3 percent Consistency Rating this season. He’s reached base in 41 straight starts at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks square off against the pitcher with the second-worst recent Statcast data in the all-day slate, but it is slightly concerning that the Diamondbacks haven’t been able to score more than two runs in two of their first three games against the Phillies.
The top DraftKings main slate stack in the CSURAM88 Model surprisingly belongs to the White Sox, who have the sixth-highest implied run total:
The White Sox have the second-lowest 12-month wOBA for a projected lineup, yet they’ve registered the highest wOBA and batting average on balls in play (BABIP) as well as a +1.03 DraftKings Plus/Minus with the third-lowest average GPP ownership against left-handed pitchers this season. Their projected lineup is filled with all right-handed and switch hitters, and Yankees lefty Jordan Montgomery has fared less favorably against righties this season. Melky Cabrera is the only hitter in the stack with a negative batted ball distance differential and Recent Batted Ball Luck. One alluring aspect of a White Sox stack is the salary savings: They have the only top-10 five-man stack that costs less than $20,000.
Batters
Every first baseman in the early slate has a positive recent Statcast data in all fields. Paul Goldschmidt will likely carry excessive ownership in the small slate, leaving Matt Carpenter and Joey Votto as potential pivots. Carpenter has recent Statcast data on par with Goldschmidt’s, and he leads all hitters in the slate with a 57 percent fly ball rate. Votto has averaged a +1.91 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 55.6 percent Consistency Rating in 27 games at Busch Stadium.
The Yankees are presently implied to score a slate-best 5.9 runs tonight — their second-highest mark on the road this season — and they’re opposed by reliever-turned-starter David Holmberg, who has failed to pitch more than 5.0 innings in any start while serving up three home runs in his last four outings. The Yankees are first in Team Value Rating, although their cumulative -1.25 DraftKings Plus/Minus away from Yankee Stadium is concerning.
The Cubs have the second-highest wOBA and ISO against left-handed pitchers this season, but they’re facing a lefty in Gio who has allowed no more than three earned runs in six straight starts. Still, the Cubs have averaged the second-highest FanDuel Plus/Minus against southpaws this year, spearheaded by the trio of Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, and Javier Baez. Collectively, they’ve provided a +4.15 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 52.9 percent Consistency Rating, and every hitter in the projected Cubs lineup has a FanDuel Bargain Rating of at least 70 percent. Since they are implied to score only 4.3 runs, their stack appeal will likely be limited, thus creating a potential advantage in GPPs.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
