The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday has a 10-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are only four pitchers today $9,000 or above on FanDuel:
In terms of upside, it definitely seems that Jacob deGrom is in a tier of his own: He’s facing the Giants, who rank 29th this season with a .277 team wOBA and are currently implied for just 3.4 runs. Further, while they rank only 25th in 2017 strikeout rate, their current projected lineup (per the MLB Lineups page) has some batters who whiff at a high rate. For example, Mike Morse, who is 35 years old and has played in just 15 games over the last two years, has an elevated SO/AB rate of .471. That could regress as he gets more plate attempts, but even his career rate — around .260 — is elevated. Brandon Belt, who does play every day, has a high SO/AB rate of .303. With a 7.8 K Prediction, deGrom leads the stud cohort by 1.6 strikeouts.
That said, deGrom has some concerning Statcast data points. Take a look at the difference between deGrom and the rest of the ‘studs’:
A 95 mile per hour exit velocity and 48 percent hard hit rate are brutal, but perhaps the most important data point is deGrom’s Recent Batted Ball Luck score of -94, which suggests that deGrom has been lucky. Here’s a definition of the stat:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
deGrom wasn’t great in his last start, scoring only 21.0 FanDuel points against the Braves, but his numbers suggest it should have been even uglier. He put up 58.0 FanDuel points the game before against a high-powered Nationals offense and has averaged a +6.20 FanDuel Plus/Minus across six starts this season. This may not matter given the other ‘stud’ options today and that deGrom is facing a poor Giants offense, but that Statcast data is bad.
Carlos Martinez has a mediocre K Prediction of 6.2 against the Marlins, who rank 20th this season with a 20.5 percent team strikeout rate. That said, he certainly has the capability of exceeding that: He’s gone for double-digit strikeouts in two starts already this year, and he’s gone for at least seven in four of six games. Martinez is in a nice park in Miami — as evidenced by his slate-high 86 Park Factor — and, unlike deGrom, he has elite Statcast data: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a hard hit rate of just 23 percent. He’s only a small -119 moneyline favorite against Adam Conley, but that’s fine with Martinez; in 15 games since 2014 Martinez has had comparable moneyline odds and opponent implied totals, and he did fine (at low ownership) in those games (per the MLB Trends tool):
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Values
After doing this over his first five games of the season . . .
. . . Trevor Cahill finally got a salary bump up to $7,600 on DraftKings. He’s a very interesting case, as he’s having a career year and is seemingly pitching over his head. FanGraphs had a nice post a couple days ago, noting that Cahill is making more batters whiff all of a sudden:
The only thing writer Jeff Sullivan could find that changed in Cahill’s game is the high number of curveballs he throwing compared to previous years. It’s unclear how long Cahill can keep up this success, but it is notable that he’s not necessarily getting lucky. Making guys whiff is always good, and an elevated strikeout rate is almost always better than an elevated BABIP. And who knows: Maybe Cahill just needed to add more off-speed stuff to his game.
Back to today: He leads the slate by a mile (or at least a full strikeout) with an 8.9 K Prediction against a Rangers team currently implied for just 3.6 runs. Many of our Player Models weigh K Prediction and opponent run total strongly, and thus Cahill is one of the top pitchers for both sites in our Models. The Rangers have seen the second-highest percentage of curveballs this season (11.9 percent), and Cahill could certainly go to that dynamic pitch often.
Alex Wood is a tough pitcher to analyze in every slate given his suspected pitch count. The last we heard about it was two starts ago; he allowed a single hit through six innings and struck out five batters but was pulled after 77 pitches. This is what he had to say about it: “I didn’t know I was on a pitch count until I got yanked. That was probably the longest I’d gone since my last spring start so I wasn’t surprised.” Wood went only five innings in the next game and scored 33.0 FanDuel points; he allowed four earned runs but had eight strikeouts. If he weren’t on a pitch count, he’d be one of the safest and most popular options today. He’s facing the Pirates, who are currently implied for 3.3 runs and rank 23rd this season with a .307 team ISO. Further, Wood’s Statcast data is elite: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 170 feet, an exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 25 percent, and a hard hit rate of 21 percent. His K Prediction of 6.8 is a little low, but it’s still higher than Martinez’s, for instance. The question remains: What can Wood do in 80 pitches?
Note: The Dodgers have not definitively announced a starter, but we currently have Wood projected for the start.
Fastballs
Nate Karns: He had a gem last outing, going for 49.0 FanDuel points and allowing only one hit across six innings; he has elite Statcast data, allowing a batted ball distance of 169 feet, an exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 26 percent over his last two games.
Jake Arrieta: The weather looks bad, and he’s in Denver at Coors Field; all that said, Arrieta has been one of the best pitchers in the league for a couple years and is now at his lowest DraftKings salary ($7,800) since 2014.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Given the cheap pitching options like Cahill and Karns, it shouldn’t be too hard to roster Coors Field batters today if that game plays. That said, the highest-rated five-man DraftKings stacks (per player ratings in the Bales Model) currently belong to the Dodgers and Nationals. Ian Hartitz wrote about the Dodgers in today’s stacking piece, so let’s discuss the Nationals.
The high-powered Nats offense is currently implied for 4.5 runs and faces Baltimore righty Kevin Gausman, who has been abysmal this season. He’s averaged a -9.99 DraftKings Plus/Minus over his first seven starts, and here’s how he’s fared over his last four:
He was ejected in the second inning of his most recent game against the Red Sox, but it’s not as if he was great before that. Over his last three starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 221 feet, and he’ll face a Nationals lineup that continues to smash the ball. Ryan Zimmerman got the day off yesterday, and he’ll look to continue his ridiculous streak at the plate; he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last 10 games, averaging a +10.13 DraftKings Plus/Minus over that time. His Statcast data is just as unreal: Over his last 12, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 260 feet, an exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 58 percent.
On FanDuel, the Blue Jays currently own the highest Team Value Rating (TVR):
Here’s the definition of that FantasyLabs-unique metric:
A 0 to 100 grade showing a team’s historical value based on their live implied runs and collective salaries on a given DFS site
The Blue Jays face Cleveland righty Trevor Bauer, who was poor in his last start, allowing seven earned runs across four innings. His Statcast data paints a similar picture: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 233 feet, an exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 50 percent. Toronto still has poor overall batting numbers — they rank 27th this season with a .291 team wOBA — but a couple of their batters have positive indicators. For instance, Justin Smoak has averaged a batted ball distance of 235 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 46 percent over his last 13 games. The Blue Jays should continue to be low-owned, especially in a Coors Field slate.
Batters
Wilmer Flores isn’t the sexiest batter in the slate, and early returns on his Statcast data aren’t amazing: In his first four games of the year, he’s averaged a batted ball exit velocity of 87 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 25 percent. He was recently activated from the DL after spending time in a hospital due to a staph infection in his right knee. All that said, he’s projected to bat cleanup today for the Mets at just $2,300 on FanDuel. He’s in a pitcher’s park at home, and New York is currently implied for an uninspiring 3.9 runs, but, again, he’s a $2,300 cleanup hitter. And it’s not as if he has the hardest matchup in the world against Giants lefty Matt Moore, who has posted a -7.20 FanDuel Plus/Minus across six starts this year. In a Coors Field slate, Flores gives a lot of needed salary relief at a valuable batting position. Oh, and this is probably important: He has a massive .379 ISO against lefties.
Reds righty pitcher Rookie Davis has . . . struggled this season:
He owns a miserable 2.254 WHIP and a bad 1.901 HR/9 allowed. That’s unfortunate considering he’s facing a stellar Yankees offense that ranks second in the league this season with a .352 team wOBA. They are in a batter’s park in Cincinnati today, and Davis has to deal with some huge bats all across the order. Aaron Judge is projected to bat freaking seventh and he owns a .313 ISO against righties over the past year. Over his last 12 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 257 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 51 percent, and a hard hit rate of 44 percent. There are no easy spots for Reds pitchers today, and things could stay ugly the whole game. We have a new Opponent Bullpen Strength metric, which is defined thus:
The percentile rank of how “overworked” the opposing bullpen has been over the past three games; a higher number is better for batters
The Yankees bats lead the slate with a 99 mark.
Sometimes analysis is simple. Khris Davis has done this over his last 10 games . . .
. . . during which he has averaged an exit velocity of 98 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 62 percent. Let’s say it together: Regression to the mean.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
