The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday has a nine-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are three pitchers today with FanDuel salaries above $9,000:
Zack Greinke has been absolutely stellar in 2017, averaging a robust +8.16 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 78 percent Consistency Rating over his first nine starts:
The biggest difference between his performance this season and the past couple of years is an elevated strikeout rate: He posted a 9.2 SO/9 rate in 2014, but that dipped in subsequent seasons to 8.1 in 2015 and then 7.6 last season in his first campaign with the Arizona Diamondbacks. This season, at 33 years old, Greinke is back to making batters whiff at a high rate, averaging 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings.
Today his 7.2 K Prediction is the second-best mark of the slate, and he has a nice matchup against a White Sox team that ranks 24th this season with a .307 team wOBA. That said, there are a couple concerning data points for him. First, he’s pitching at Chase Field, which is a hitter’s park and the reason the White Sox are currently implied for 3.9 runs. But perhaps more importantly he has ominous Statcast data: Over his past two games — one of which includes a 64-point FanDuel gem against the Pirates — he has allowed a batted ball distance of 240 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 56 percent, and a hard hit rate of 46 percent. That may not matter against the White Sox, but it should still be noted: He might be worth a fade given his likely high ownership in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Part of the reason Greinke could be so chalky today is that many of the other ‘studs’ have weather concerns:
Greinke is the only pitcher above $8,300 on FanDuel without a greater than 50 percent chance of precipitation. Some of those games look worse than others — notably, the Pittsburgh-Atlanta tilt — but Greinke is the only stud with a truly clear forecast as of Monday morning. Pitching at Chase isn’t great, but he’s at least guaranteed to pitch.
As a result, guys like Gerrit Cole and Michael Fulmer will likely be low-owned. Cole’s game looks especially gloomy weather-wise, which is unfortunate given his recent play (he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last seven starts) and Vegas data, as the Braves are currently implied for just 3.8 runs. Fulmer’s weather situation looks less dire, given that the Astros can use their retractable roof, but he’s facing a great Houston offense that is ranked sixth this season with a .335 team wOBA and implied for 4.6 runs. Greinke: Chalky, he will be, even on DraftKings, where he has an elevated $12,000 price tag and low six percent Bargain Rating.
Values
The guy with the highest K Prediction today is Michael Pineda, who also boasts the best Vegas data. He’s predicted for 7.6 strikeouts and faces a Royals team that has been putrid offensively this season, ranking 28th with a .289 team wOBA. They’ve stepped it up a bit recently with 21 runs over their last four games, but bettors seem to believe they’ll come back down to earth: They’re currently implied for a slate-low 3.2 runs. Pineda, as usual, has been up and down with his performance, going for as many as 40 DraftKings points and as little as seven this year:
Pineda’s Statcast data is fairly solid: While he’s allowed a 92 mph exit velocity over his last two starts, he’s also allowed a hard hit rate of 27 percent and a batted ball distance of 201 feet. He’s induced ground balls 51 percent of the time. He has weather concerns of his own, but it will be hard to pass up on his slate-high K Prediction and elite Vegas data given the other options today. Like Greinke, he’s quite pricey on DraftKings, where his $10,500 salary comes with a low five percent Bargain Rating. Of course, there’s a 53 percent chance of precipitation for his game, so monitor the weather.
Brad Peacock is one of the top pitchers in the Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel, as he has incredibly low price tags of $5,700 on DraftKings and $5,500 on FanDuel. He faces the Tigers, who are currently implied for just 4.0 runs — a fairly low number in this slate — and he owns a solid 9.804 SO/9 rate. Further, his Statcast data is elite: Over his last three games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 148 feet, an exit velocity of 83 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 22 percent, and a hard hit rate of 11 percent. You can see why he’s rating highly.
But while he might be playable in GPPs those marks overstate his spot today. A relief pitcher, he’s starting in injured Dallas Keuchel‘s place. Here’s what manager A.J. Hinch said about Peacock’s workload tonight, per the Houston Chronicle:
It just depends on how efficient he can be. I knew going in (Friday) night that this was probable, so we wanted to get him an inning almost like a bullpen session prior to his start on Monday. Whatever he can give us he’s going to give us. I’ll let him go as long as he can as (long as) he’s effective and we feel like he’s managing his workload given that he hasn’t started since spring training. But that’s part of his role on this team is to be prepared for something like this.
Peacock was quoted as well: “Obviously I’m not going to go seven innings, but I’ll just go as far as I can.”
So how can you deal with a guy like him in Player Models? We have recent and long-term pitch count columns in the Models. His 18-pitch average over the last 15 days is by far the lowest in the slate:
In Models we also have sliders with which you can weight recent and long-term pitch count:
Giving these new sliders some weight will weed out spot-start relievers with low upside.
Fastballs
John Lackey: Over his last two games, he’s pitched at Coors Field and in a windy Wrigley Field. Even still, he’s posted stellar Statcast data, allowing an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 17 percent.
J.C. Ramirez: He’s on the road in Tampa Bay at a pitcher’s park and faces a Rays squad that ranks first in the league by a mile this season with a 27.1 percent strikeout rate.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks. That’s no surprise — they’re playing at Chase Field in 90-plus degree weather — and they should be quite chalky. J.J. Calle discusses them in today’s MLB Pro Model Stacks, so instead let’s discuss a different one:
The Twins face Baltimore righty Ubaldo Jimenez, who owns the third-worst past-year WHIP on the slate at 1.564. He got beat up for five runs and two home runs in five innings last outing, and he’s now back home in a hitter’s park. Lefties in Baltimore boast the second-best Park Factor of the night, including Max Kepler, who (per the MLB Lineups page) is currently projected to bat cleanup for a Twins squad implied for 4.5 runs. The Twins should be low-owned in comparison to the Diamondbacks, and they have just as much upside as any team.
On FanDuel, Arizona and Baltimore again dominate the stacking leaderboard. One team that could be low-owned tonight is the Angels:
They are implied for just 4.0 runs, which makes sense in a pitcher’s park in Tampa Bay, but they also face Rays righty Jake Odorizzi, who owns the third-highest HR/9 mark (1.452) of pitchers today. Mike Trout is currently on a tear, reminding everyone that he’s the best player in baseball . . .
. . . and his Statcast data matches his production: Over his last 10 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 264 feet, an exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 60 percent, and a hard hit rate of 56 percent.
Batters
On the other side of that likely low-owned game sits Corey Dickerson, who is currently projected to lead off for a Rays squad implied for just 4.1 runs. That said, he’s on the correct side of his splits: He owns a high .261 ISO and massive .118 ISO differential against right-handed pitchers over the past year. He’s been on a tear of his own:
And his Statcast data is right there, too: Over his last 14 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 230 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 45 percent.
Because of the weather concerns in Chicago and the high temperatures in Arizona, there’s a definite possibility that the Cubs — who own the slate’s highest implied run total at 5.9 — may not be the highest-owned team of the night. While the projected rain could be problematic, the wind is yet again supposed to gust out to center. The Cubs are expensive as usual, but they actually own the slate’s highest Team Value Ratings (TVR) of 85 and 87 on DraftKings and FanDuel. Kris Bryant went for two home runs last night, and tonight he’s facing a lefty, against whom he owns a .380 ISO.
Miguel Cabrera has hit the ball hard all season, and lately he’s seen actual production: He’s gone for 15.5, 22.2, and 24.9 FanDuel points over his last three games. His Statcast data is still solid, as usual: Over his last 10, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 231 feet, an exit velocity of 98 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 57 percent. He’s facing Peacock, who may or may not make it long into this game. As a result, it’s hard to project the matchup, but we do know that he’s smashing the ball and is currently projected for just two to four percent ownership on both sites. That sounds pretty good to me.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
