The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday has a seven-game main slate at 7:07 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are no high-priced studs today; no pitcher is above $9,100 on DraftKings or $8,700 on FanDuel:
Further, most teams have healthy implied run totals: Only the Angels and Padres are currently implied for under 3.9 runs, although the Giants likely will be under that mark too when the line comes out on that game.
Brandon McCarthy is in line to get his first start since April 29th; he’s been on the Disabled List over the past couple of weeks due to shoulder soreness in his non-throwing shoulder. He was excellent in his first four starts of the year but struggled in his last one, scoring only 12.0 FanDuel points and allowing four earned runs in five innings against the Phillies. Still, he’s averaged an impressive +6.47 Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his first five outings. He has perhaps the best matchup today against a Giants team that ranks dead last this season with a .280 wOBA. Further, he is playing in San Francisco, which is one of the best pitcher’s parks in the league; both McCarthy and his opponent, Matt Cain, own slate-high Park Factors of 94 today.
McCarthy’s 6.4 K Prediction isn’t amazing on a regular slate, but it’s actually tied with Chase Anderson‘s for the highest mark today. Anderson is an interesting pivot in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) away from McCarthy. He’s struggled lately: After averaging 38.25 FanDuel points through his first four starts of the season, he’s averaged just 17.33 over his last three:
His Statcast data falls in line with his recent struggles: Over his last two games, he’s allowed an average batted ball distance of 230 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 48 percent. Those are brutal marks, but they did come against the Red Sox, Cardinals, and Braves — the first two own top-10 wOBA marks this season. Today’s matchup is certainly easier against a Padres team that ranks 28th this season with a .288 team wOBA. Their projected lineup (per our MLB Lineups page) has been even worse against righties, averaging a slate-worst .255 past-year wOBA. Note Anderson’s drastic price difference between sites: He’s $8,500 on FanDuel but just $6,800 on DraftKings, where he comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Values
Luis Perdomo is currently the highest-rated pitcher in the Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s at a very-cheap $6,600 on both sites, and he’s facing a Brewers team that continues to get shorted by Vegas bettors — they are currently implied for just 3.6 runs despite ranking first in team ISO and third in team wOBA this season. Perdomo has a low 6.767 SO/9 rate over the past year, but that’s less of an issue given the other pitching options today and his matchup against the Brewers. They’re quite a boom-or-bust matchup for opposing pitchers, as they also rank second this year with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate; Perdomo owns the third-highest K Prediction today at 6.2. But what really makes him stand out is his Statcast data: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 177 feet, an exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 13 percent, and a hard hit rate of 17 percent. Per our Trends tool, only three DraftKings pitchers in our database have had similar marks in K Prediction, opponent run total, and groundball rate:
A sample size of three pitchers may not be predictive, but it does show just how underpriced he is today relative to his data points.
Matt Cain has posted 9.65 and -16.10 DraftKings points over his past two games, allowing 11 earned runs and 14 hits across 8.1 innings during that span. Interestingly enough, however, his Statcast data isn’t that bad: Over that time frame, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 208 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 24 percent. He has a 32 Recent Batted Ball Luck score, which suggests that he’s been a little unlucky of late. Prior to those two games, he was solid, averaging between 16 and 22 DraftKings points on perfect Consistency over his previous four. His matchup against the Dodgers isn’t great today, but they are currently implied for just 4.1 runs; he’s a +136 moneyline dog since he’s going up against McCarthy. He faced the Dodgers three weeks ago on the road and finished with 21.7 DraftKings points on just three strikeouts; he allowed just two hits and no runs in six innings pitched. He doesn’t have a high K Prediction today at 5.9, but, again, no pitcher really has massive strikeout upside. He’s especially cheap at $6,100 on DraftKings, where he comes with an 84 percent Bargain Rating.
Fastballs
Zack Wheeler: He owns the fourth-best K Prediction at 6.0 but faces an Arizona team at Chase Field currently implied for 4.9 runs; he has fantastic Statcast data from his last start, allowing a batted ball distance of 155 feet and an exit velocity of just 85 miles per hour
Jesse Chavez: He has a mediocre 5.8 K Prediction, but he still projects to be somewhat popular given his matchup against the White Sox, who rank 25th this season with a .297 team wOBA and are currently implied for just 3.6 runs; he is the largest moneyline favorite at -180
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per player ratings in the Bales Model) is a 1-2-3-4-5 straight stack of the Los Angeles Angels:
The Angels are at home in a pitcher’s park, but they’re also facing White Sox righty Mike Pelfrey, who has allowed 16 hits and nine earned runs across his first three starts of the year. He’s not a strikeout guy — he’s made just five batters whiff in 14.2 innings this year — and the Angels have the second-lowest SO/AB rate among projected lineups today at .207. There should be bats on balls, although the Angels have been quite underwhelming of late in that regard: Of the five guys in this lineup, only Albert Pujols has a recent hard hit rate of 40-plus percent. Their Vegas line suggests they’re in a great spot tonight, but neither side of this matchup has been particularly impressive lately.
On FanDuel, the highest-rated four-man stack belongs to the Miami Marlins:
They could be somewhat contrarian in today’s slate, as their implied run total of 4.5 sits sixth out of 14 teams. They definitely have upside against Houston righty Joe Musgrove, who owns the third-highest HR/9 rate at 1.564. He had a nice outing against the Braves last time out, but he’s been mostly bad other than that: He’s averaged just 20.0 FanDuel points in his six other starts. He has allowed seven home runs across his last five games, and he’ll have to face a Miami lineup that has hitters with excellent recent Statcast data. Both Marcell Ozuna and Justin Bour have hard hit rates of 50-plus percent over the last 15 days. Bour has been especially impressive, averaging an exit velocity of 96 miles per hour and a distance of 231 feet; he has three home runs over his last four games.
Batters
Kendrys Morales definitely stands out as one of the most intriguing batters in today’s slate. He has elite Statcast data over his last 11 games, as Matt LaMarca discussed in today’s Three Key Players piece. Projected to bat cleanup for a Jays team currently implied for 4.8 runs, he should be chalky. And that makes his teammate, Justin Smoak, even more interesting: Smoak has the same positional eligibility as Morales (1B) and is projected to hit right after him at the No. 5 spot. Smoak is on the wrong side of his splits against a righty, which should further decrease his ownership in comparison to Morales’. That said, his Statcast data is actually the best among Jays hitters:
At the exact same price on FanDuel, Smoak could come with half of Morales’ ownership.
Jake Lamb is projected to bat cleanup for the Diamondbacks, who are currently implied for 4.9 runs at Chase Field. He’s on the correct side of his extreme splits: He owns a .288 ISO and .136 ISO differential against right-handed pitchers over the last year. There aren’t many games impacted by rain tonight, but there are some cold games: Only the games in Miami and Arizona have Weather Ratings above 50 today. For reference, the Blue Jays mentioned above have a Weather Rating of just 25 percent, as the temperature at game time is projected to be 56 degrees. Per Ian Hartitz’s weather study here, temperatures below 70 degrees have historically been negative situations for hitters. There are a lot of great hitters in today’s slate; taking the ones in superior weather could pay off in GPPs.
Matthew Joyce has hit two home runs over his last three games, and still our Recent Batted Ball Luck metric suggests he’s been unlucky of late. Here’s the definition of that stat:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
Over his last 11 games, Joyce has averaged a batted ball distance of 260 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 48 percent, and a hard hit rate of 51 percent. He’s making great contact right now, and today he gets a pitcher in Seattle righty Yovani Gallardo, who owns a poor past-year WHIP of 1.554. The Athletics are currently implied for just 3.9 runs despite Gallardo’s mediocre marks, but that means Joyce, who is projected to bat second today, could go underowned; we have him projected for just two to four percent ownership on both sites.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
