It’s (real) Opening Day! Baseball is back! We have a nine-game main slate at 1:05pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
Studs
As discussed in yesterday’s MLB Breakdown, these first two days of daily fantasy baseball are unique in that most teams are using their aces to start the season. In a random slate in July, there will be a mix of studs and values; today, it is mostly studs. It is not as drastic as yesterday — we have a range from Clayton Kershaw ($12,600) to Jhoulys Chacin ($5,500) on FanDuel — but there are still plenty of top-end options from which to choose.
Speaking of Kershaw: We’re projecting him to be the chalkiest pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel: He’s facing the Padres, who are dead last in the slate with a .210 weighted on-base average (wOBA) over the past year. Unsurprisingly, the Padres are easily implied for the lowest run total (2.0) in the slate, and Kershaw is an absolutely massive -367 moneyline favorite (per our Vegas Dashboard):
According to our MLB Trends tool, this is only the fourth time in our database that a team has been implied for no more than 2.0 runs. The pitcher in each of the previous instances was Kershaw:
There have been a couple other instances of pitchers having moneylines of at least -350, but it’s mainly been Kershaw:
In fact, pitchers with moneylines of at least -300 facing teams with implied run totals of no more than 2.5 runs have crushed value over the past several years, averaging 52.36 FanDuel points and a +12.81 Plus/Minus with a 78.6 percent Consistency Rating.
After Kershaw, the next two highest-owned studs will likely be Noah Syndergaard versus the Braves and Stephen Strasburg against the Marlins. Both are in immaculate Vegas spots with opposing implied run totals of 2.8 and 3.0. Thor was the superior pitcher last season according to the advanced stats — he trails only Kershaw and Pittsburgh’s Gerrit Cole in the slate with his 195-foot average batted ball distance allowed — but the Braves projected lineup currently ranks fifth in average wOBA. For that reason, Strasburg might actually be the superior option, especially in tournaments, as he is $1,700 cheaper on DraftKings and $1,400 cheaper on FanDuel. He currently boasts the slate’s second-highest K Prediction at 8.5. (K Prediction is one of our premium metrics accessible to Pro subscribers in the Player Models.)
Values
The Brewers own the second-lowest 12-month wOBA in the slate at .287, and Jon Gray gets them today. Intriguingly, Gray was actually much better at home in Coors Field last season than he was on the road:
However, we should be careful with how we interpret that data. In my opinion, his ability to perform well in the negative environment if Coors Field says a lot about his talent. That he was less dominant on the road last year shouldn’t be dismissed — especially since he’s on the road today — but 1) he’s in a nice matchup and 2) the trend is still small. If he’s as talented as the Coors Field trend suggests, he likely has the ability to pitch well on the road.
Danny Duffy is likely to be a popular value option: The Twins have the fourth-lowest past-year wOBA at .311, and Duffy has one of the highest K Predictions today despite having only the sixth-highest salary on DraftKings at $8,600. The Vegas data isn’t that encouraging — this game is currently a pick’em and both teams are implied for 4.0 runs — but there’s no denying Duffy’s strikeout upside: The Twins also rank third in past-year strikeouts per at-bat at .281. Duffy is on the road, where he’s had nice value, boasting a superior Plus/Minus, much higher Upside Rating, and low ownership:
Duffy has the potential to be a top DraftKings scorer in today’s slate.
Fast Balls
Jeremy Hellickson: The Reds will one of the most popular stacks given their implied point total and pricing (see below), but Hellickson actually is second among pitchers in past-year Upside (12 percent), and he’s first in hard-hit rate allowed (25 percent).
Jose Quintana: He’s projected for a low ownership of two to four percent on both sites despite carrying a top-five K Prediction; he’s a +112 dog against the Tigers and has a poor Park Factor (37), but the Tigers have the fourth-lowest past-year wOBA in the slate (.311), and they posted a -0.24 DraftKings Plus/Minus against lefties last year.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated DraftKings stack in the Bales Model is a straight 1-5 stack of the Cincinnati Reds:
It’s not a surprise that this is the top stack, as the Reds are currently implied for 4.4 runs — the fourth-highest mark in the slate — and they’re relatively cheap according to our Team Value Rating (TVR) metric, which is accessible on the Lineups page and also the Vegas Dashboard. Here’s the definition for TVR:
A 0 to 100 grade showing a team’s historical value based on their live implied runs and collective salaries on a given DFS site.
On DraftKings, the Reds have a 65 TVR, which is the slate’s third-highest mark (nearly tied for first). Billy Hamilton — mentioned in today’s Three Key MLB Players — should be especially popular in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), as he’s projected to bat leadoff against Jeremy Hellickson and his .487 SB/G mark is easily the best in the slate.
If we look at four-batter FanDuel stacks generated by the highest combined isolated power (ISO), it is a projected 1-3-5-7 lineup for the Rockies that takes the top spot:
No one likes to roster Colorado players outside of Coors Field, but that’s perhaps an exploitable bias: Of all visiting teams last year, the Rockies ranked fourth in Plus/Minus on FanDuel at +1.3. They trailed only the Diamondbacks with an average of 11.98 FanDuel points per game per batter on the road. They’re obviously valuable in Coors, but they’re perhaps a little undervalued away, especially considering the bats they have in their lineup: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, and Mark Reynolds all have ISOs versus righties of at least .199. In fact, Carlos Gonzalez — projected to bat cleanup — also has a .199 ISO (like Reynolds). This is a high-upside stack that could have lower ownership than it merits.
Batters
The Phillies have the highest TVR on FanDuel at 80, and that’s because Cesar Hernandez, Howie Kendrick, and Maikel Franco — projected to bat first, second, and cleanup — are incredibly cheap at $2,400, $2,500, and $2,900. They are implied for a solid 4.2 runs against Scott Feldman, who was signed as a reliever this offseason and is somehow getting the Opening Day start since A) the Reds traded away Dan Straily, B) Homer Bailey is out until likely the middle of the season after having surgery, and C) Anthony DeSclafani was just put on the 10-day disabled list with a sprained UCL. It’s the first game of the season, and the Reds already have to go to their bullpen for a scratch start.
Trea Turner is coming off an incredible age-23 season in Washington, and he’ll look to get things rolling quickly today against the Marlins and Edinson Volquez, who owns the worst past-year WHIP in the slate at 1.596. But it’s not just Turner’s bat — he has an incredible .258 ISO against fellow righties — that makes him enticing: He’s second in the slate behind only Billy Hamilton with .452 SB/G. No other batter is even at .400 SB/G. Among players who played at least 15 games, Turner led all batters in the league last season in DraftKings Plus/Minus. He’s expensive at $4,900, but he can accumulate fantasy points in a hurry:
Let’s discuss a couple more batters. The power hitters in the Blue Jays-Orioles game are definitely in a good stadium: Their 78 Park Factor is easily the best in today’s slate, and Chris Davis, Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, and Mark Trumbo all have nice ISOs at .255 or better. That said, this game also has a poor 39 Weather Rating for batters; Weather Rating is defined below:
How hitter-friendly we’ve deemed [a game] to be; this is calculated using a model weighing specific weather factors and their impact on scoring.
As you can see, Weather Rating significantly correlates with DFS performance:
These guys certainly have huge upside given their power — this game does have a Vegas total of 8.5 runs — but the weather could certainly play a factor.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
