The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s daily fantasy slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nine-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are some drastic pricing differences between DraftKings and FanDuel. For example, the Dodgers’ Hyun-jin Ryu is the most expensive option on DraftKings at $10,200 . . .
. . . but he’s the eighth-highest priced guy on FanDuel at $7,200:
Ryu’s pricing is odd, as he’s struggled to begin the 2017 season, allowing 10 earned runs and six home runs across his first three starts. What’s odder, however, is that high-priced DraftKings pitchers with low Bargain Ratings actually haven’t done that bad (per our Trends tool):
Further, while Ryu has been bad this season — he’s averaged a -2.80 DraftKings Plus/Minus through three starts — his Statcast data is actually solid: Over his latest two starts, he’s allowed an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 33 percent, and he’s induced groundballs at a 53 percent clip. He’s facing the Giants in San Francisco — the ultimate pitcher’s park — and he has an opponent run implication of 3.6 runs (per our Vegas dashboard). He’s the second-strongest favorite with a -149 moneyline, and his 6.1 K Prediction, while not amazing, is the fourth-highest mark in the slate. Ryu’s pricing is strange, but he’s still oddly playable.
Chris Archer is the second-highest priced option on both sites, and he’s been solid to start the year, hitting salary-based expectations in three of his four starts and averaging a +3.73 DraftKings Plus/Minus over that time. He’s not in a great park in Baltimore, but the Orioles are currently implied for just 3.7 runs. He’s kind of the opposite of Ryu in that he’s had solid results but his Statcast data is amazingly awful: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 227 feet, an exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, a line drive rate of 48 percent, and a hard hit rate of 57 percent. There have been few high-priced pitchers in our database with batted ball data that poor. Predictably, they’ve been bad:
Still, Archer warrants consideration in tournaments: The weather looks brutal for this game, and it will likely keep his ownership low. Also, Jason Vargas will likely be the chalkiest pitcher on the slate, and he’s $2,100 and $1,000 cheaper than Archer on DraftKings and FanDuel. Archer leads all pitchers in the slate with a past-year 10.251 SO/9 rate, and he could be low-owned; that’s intriguing, right?
Value
The pitching options today aren’t exactly stellar, and Vargas has done this over his first three games:
Yeah, he’ll be chalky. (Pro subscribers can review ownership on our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.)
Further, he has the best matchup in the slate against a White Sox team that ranks 29th in team wOBA in 2017 (.268) and fourth in strikeout rate (24.6 percent). The White Sox are currently implied for just 3.7 runs, and Vargas boasts the slate’s highest K Prediction at 8.1. His Statcast data has also been elite: Over the last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 183 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 25 percent, and a hard hit rate of 25 percent. If the Tampa Bay-Baltimore game is called due to weather before lineup lock, which would eliminate Archer and Ubaldo Jimenez, it’s hard to imagine how chalky Vargas will be. In tournaments, he’s worth fading for that reason, especially since he has some odd data. This is his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, and per the Royals blog Royals Review Vargas has bumped his ground ball rate up to 53 percent this season from his career average of 38 percent.
Writer Shaun Newkirk found that two reasons for an increased ground ball rate — 1) more vertical movement on his fastball and sinker and/or 2) hitting the lower half of the zone more — don’t apply to Vargas. What he did find is that Vargas has been “pounding the zone” more this season, hitting it at a 51.9 percent rate. Newkirk remarks, “A high zone percentage isn’t always a good thing. Hitters hit balls thrown in the zone better than those out of the zone.” Finally, he notes that Vargas has been second in the league with a 7.77 percent in-zone whiff rate. From Newkirk: “If you don’t have good stuff to get whiffs, you probably want to stay out of the zone. Vargas doesn’t have great, overpowering stuff. After all his average fastball velocity this year is 87 MPH.” The 34-year-old Vargas will return to Earth at some point; could it be tonight?
Fastballs
Amir Garrett: He struck out 12 batters in his last start, going for 55.0 FanDuel points in seven innings pitched; he has a tough matchup against a Brewers team that ranks first by a mile in team ISO (.222) but also first in strikeout rate in 2017 (27.6 percent).
Miguel Gonzalez: He’s only $500 cheaper than Vargas yet has a K Prediction 3.8 strikeouts lower; that said, he does have an opponent run implication of 3.8 and has held batters to a slate-low 20 percent hard hit rate over his last two starts.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. As always, a Coors Field game colors the slate. That said, it is not the Rockies or Nationals who have the highest-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the player ratings in the Bales Model). It’s the Rangers:
The Rangers are currently implied for 5.1 runs against Minnesota righty Phil Hughes, who allowed eight hits and six runs across 3.1 innings in his last start. Among all pitchers today, his past-year WHIP of 1.731 and HR/9 allowed of 2.308 are third- and second-worst. And that includes Ryu, who has a past-year sample size of four games. You could make the argument that Hughes is the worst pitcher tonight. Joey Gallo will likely hit eighth again, but he’s not your typical No. 8 hitter: He has a .286 ISO against righties over the past year, and his Statcast data is ridiculous. Over his past 13 games, Gallo has averaged a batted ball distance of 264 feet, an exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 64 percent, and a hard hit rate of 57 percent. This seems good:
Hardest hit HRs this season from @statcast:
Gallo 116.1
Gallo 115.6
Stanton 115.6
Mancini 115.6
Judge 115.5
Springer 114.2
Stanton 114.1— Daren Willman (@darenw) April 22, 2017
For more on Gallo, see today’s Three Key MLB Players.
On FanDuel, the three highest-rated four-man stacks belong to the Rangers. The next team up is the Rockies, who are currently implied for a slate-high 6.5 runs at home:
Three of these four batters in Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, and Trevor Story boast ISOs of .230 or higher against right-handed pitchers over the last year. Story has come on of late — he’s gone for 13-plus FanDuel points in four of his last five games — and he’s averaging a ridiculous 88 percent fly ball rate over his last 12 games.
Batters
The question of the day is what to do with Bryce Harper, who is $6,100 on DraftKings at Coors Field and has done this lately:
One thing not in his favor is that he’s facing a fellow lefty in Tyler Anderson, and he has notable splits against LHP over his career:
- Versus LHP: 8.59 DraftKings points, -0.1 Plus/Minus, 14.8 percent ownership, 35 percent Consistency, 13 percent Upside
- Versus RHP: 9.42 DraftKings points, +0.6 Plus/Minus, 15.8 percent ownership, 43 percent Consistency, 15 percent Upside
He certainly hasn’t been bad against lefties, but he also hasn’t benefited from an ownership discount in that situation, and he won’t today at Coors. For whatever it’s worth, here are his past results in this stadium:
Here’s another fun tweet from Daren Willman:
Most batted balls 100 MPH+
Khris Davis 23
AJ Pollock 22
Marcell Ozuna 20
Machado 20
Miggy, Freeman, Cano, Castellanos, Carlos Santana 19— Daren Willman (@darenw) April 23, 2017
A.J. Pollock is projected to bad leadoff for the Diamondbacks (per the MLB Lineups page) and has impressive Statcast data over his last 13 games. During that time frame, Pollock has averaged a batted ball distance of 225 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 48 percent. He does have negative splits against fellow righties, but he’s also at Chase Field, which has been the second-best park for hitters over the past couple of years.
- Coors Field: 9.99 average DraftKings points for 1-5 batters, +1.8 Plus/Minus
- Chase Field: 8.92 average DraftKings points for 1-5 batters, +1.3 Plus/Minus
- Miller Park: 8.24 average DraftKings points for 1-5 batters, +0.6 Plus/Minus
It’s supposed to be around 54 degrees at first pitch in Denver, as opposed to a much warmer 81 degrees in Arizona.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
