The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday offers an eight-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On DraftKings there are three pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
Carlos Carrasco is in a fantastic spot against an underwhelming projected White Sox lineup with a 27.2% strikeout rate and .287 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against righties over the past 12 months. Additionally, Carrasco sports the slate’s second-best 1.202 WHIP and 1.01 HR/9 over that same time, and he has a top-two 7.8 K Prediction.
Chicago is implied for only 3.6 runs, and the Indians are large -230 moneyline favorites, even on the road, where Carrasco has been incredible (per our Trends tool):
One negative with Carrasco is his recent form: His 225-foot batted-ball distance and 96-mph exit velocity are both bottom-two on the slate. Regardless, pitchers with similarly favorable Vegas data and underwhelming Statcast numbers have still performed well above expectation with a +3.20 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Patrick Corbin is the highest-priced DraftKings pitcher today, but his production has dropped off significantly after a hot start to the season:
He also has a brutal matchup against the Pirates, who have been particularly strong against left-handed pitchers, boasting a top-three .325 wOBA and terrifyingly low 18.7% strikeout rate over the past 12 months. Another drawback with Corbin is his potential lack of price-adjusted upside (5.6 K Prediction). His $11,200 salary is $2,000 higher than it was roughly three weeks ago, which makes him an even tougher sell for cash games. Pitchers with similar salaries and K Predictions have historically failed to reach salary-based expectations over half the time:
Madison Bumgarner rounds out the group of high-priced pitchers and is the third-largest favorite on today’s slate (-152 moneyline odds). The opposing Marlins have struggled against left-handed pitching with a .280 wOBA over the past year, and they are implied for a slate-low 3.4 runs. However, the Marlins have limited their strikeouts against lefties, owning a strikeout rate of just 23.6% over the past 12 months. Given that Bumgarner has a K/9 of only 7.66 over the same time frame, his upside is limited with a 4.5 K Prediction.
Values
Ryan Yarbrough is a potential punt option on DraftKings, where he costs $5,600 with a decent 5.5 K Prediction. He’s provided upside at a discount lately, averaging 6.67 strikeouts per game over his last three starts with only 5.77 innings pitched per game. The Rays have favorable -160 moneyline odds against a projected Blue Jays lineup implied for a palatable 4.1 runs. Historically, similarly priced pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have smashed their salary-based expectations on DraftKings:
Steven Wright had his first start of the season last Tuesday, and he was fantastic with six strikeouts in seven scoreless innings. Priced at just $6,200 on FanDuel, he leads the slate with his 1.076 WHIP, and in his past three appearances he has had excellent Statcast data: His 155-foot batted-ball distance, 80-mph exit velocity and 20% hard-hit rate are easily the top marks on the slate. Even if he doesn’t go deep into the game, his low price tag and efficiency make him an option in guaranteed prize pools, as the Red Sox are slight favorites (-106 moneyline odds) against the Orioles.
Fastballs
Jack Flaherty has a K Prediction (7.9) nearly identical to Carrasco’s, but he is $2,400 cheaper on DraftKings. His matchup gives him immense upside and a solid floor, as the projected Padres lineup has a 30.1% strikeout rate and low .297 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the past year. Flaherty’s the second-largest favorite on the slate (-175 moneyline), and San Diego is implied for only 3.7 runs.
Jose Quintana has arguably the best recent Statcast data on the slate with a batted-ball distance of 160 feet, exit velocity of 86 mph and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 20% and 33%. His 6.8 K Prediction is solid even though the opposing Brewers have a below-average 22.8% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers over the past year. Quintana boasts the third-highest ceiling projection in our Models.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Indians, who are implied for a slate-high 5.6 runs:
Cleveland has the luxury of squaring off against White Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito, who struggles to strike out batters and owns an awful 1.384 WHIP over the past 12 months. Further, the Indians have annihilated right-handed pitching with a .344 wOBA over that same time period.
Jose Ramirez is in great recent batted-ball form with a 256-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 51% hard-hit rate. Those numbers crush his long-term averages, giving him differentials of +41 feet, +5 mph and +16 percentage points. Jason Kipnis is questionable with a neck injury, but if he suits up he could provide value with an 81% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and +45 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL).
One of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the Batted Ball Model belongs to the Cardinals, who are implied for a healthy 4.9 runs:
Matt Carpenter will lead off against Padres righty Jordan Lyles, who has a slate-worst 1.66 WHIP and 1.99 HR/9 over the past 12 months. Carpenter owns an elite .378 wOBA and .232 ISO against righties over the past year and is in excellent recent batted-ball form with an immaculate 251-foot average distance, 97-mph exit velocity and 51% hard-hit rate. Historically, hitters in similar lineup spots with comparable batted-ball metrics and implied run totals have averaged a +1.34 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Dexter Fowler could help differentiate Cardinals stacks from the No. 6 spot, and he has upside with a 96-mph exit velocity and 61% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. His +59 RBBL indicates that he’s recently hit the ball better than his fantasy production suggests, and (like Carpenter) he is also on the positive side of his batting splits.
Other Batters
While the Brewers’ 4.1-run implied total is nothing to write home about, Jesus Aguilar is an interesting tournament play. He has been crushing the ball as of late, averaging a 242-foot batted-ball distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 50% and 57% fly-ball and hard-hit rates. If Quintana ends up being a chalky mid-range pitching option, Aguilar could provide leverage with his elite .309 ISO and .112 ISO differential against left-handed pitching over the past year.
The Red Sox have a neutral matchup against Orioles pitcher Dylan Bundy, but they are implied for a respectable 4.6 runs. Further, the top half of their lineup has shown extreme power against righties over the past 12 months:
Andrew Benintendi leads the way as one of the highest-rated players in our Models, possessing a recent distance differential of +21 feet and team-leading 17.2 DraftKings points-per-game average over the past month.
Teoscar Hernandez and Kendrys Morales are intriguing upside plays for Toronto, and they could have reduced ownership at Tropicana Field, a favorable park for pitchers. Hernandez owns a massive 256-foot batted-ball distance and 55% fly-ball rate over the past 15 days, and Morales has generated a ton of hard contact lately with a 51% hard-hit rate, and he has a team-leading +50 RBBL.
Paul Goldschmidt is on the wrong side of his batting splits with -0.117 and -0.175 wOBA and ISO differentials against right-handed pitching over the past year, but few can match Goldy’s upside. His 253-foot batted-ball distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 60% hard-hit rate rival the Statecast data of players like Ramirez and Carpenter, but Goldschmidt should have a much lower ownership rate with a middle-of-the-pack 4.1-rum implied total.
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Pictured above: Carlos Carrasco
Photo credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
