The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate is a bit light on top-end pitching talent, with only two starters possessing salaries of at least $8,800 on FanDuel:
Stephen Strasburg is the priciest option on the slate and has an outstanding matchup vs. the San Diego Padres. Their projected lineup has struck out in 30.5% of at-bats against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, and Strasburg’s K Prediction of 10.2 is the top mark on the slate by a considerable margin. He also ranks second in both opponent implied team total (3.1 runs) and moneyline odds (-168), and pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have historically been strong options on FanDuel (per our Trends tool):
He leads all pitchers with nine Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $10,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. The only downside with Strasburg is his potential ownership: He’s currently projected for 36-40% on FanDuel and 41+% on DraftKings.
Dallas Keuchel has struggled to start the 2018 season:
However, the Statcast data from his past two starts suggests that he could be starting to turn it around. He’s posted an average batted-ball distance of 176 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 30%, all of which are among the best marks on the slate. FantasyLabs has a proprietary metric called Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL), which measures the difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days, and Keuchel’s mark of +40 on DraftKings suggests he’s been a bit unlucky. His salary has also decreased by -$2,400 since the start of the season, which could make him an interesting buy-low candidate.
He’s taking on the Oakland A’s, whose current implied team total of 4.0 runs is tied for the third-lowest mark on the slate. Their projected lineup has also struck out in 26.6% of at-bats against left-handers over the past 12 months, giving Keuchel a solid K Prediction of 6.2. Historically, pitchers with comparable recent distances, K Predictions, and salaries have been decent values on DraftKings:
Keuchel has personally matched this trend on 10 previous occasions, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.56 and a Consistency Rating of 70%. He should come in with much lower ownership than Strasburg.
Values
It’s hard to consider Kyle Hendricks a value on DraftKings, where he’s the second-most expensive pitcher on the slate, but his $7,900 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%. He owns the top Vegas data on today’s slate, leading all pitchers in both opponent implied team total (3.0 runs) and moneyline odds (-230). He’s taking on the Miami Marlins, whose projected lineup has managed a futile .287 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. They have unsurprisingly struggled to score runs this season: Their average of 3.42 runs per game currently ranks 29th in the league.
The one knock against Hendricks is his lack of strikeout upside — he’s posted a K/9 of just 8.02 over the past 12 months — but that might not be a huge factor today. His current K Prediction of 6.4 is actually tied for the second-highest mark among today’s pitchers.
Michael Fulmer has been a solid option to start the season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +6.02 on DraftKings, and he could be an intriguing option on today’s slate. He’s taking on the Texas Rangers, whose projected lineup has posted a 30.8% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. The Statcast data from his past two starts has also been elite, particularly his average distance of 164 feet. That represents a differential of -27 feet when compared to his 12-month average, which is the top mark among all of today’s pitchers. Unfortunately, his Vegas data is downright terrifying — his opponent implied team total of 4.9 runs is the highest mark on the slate — but that could make him a low-owned contrarian option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Fastballs
Jarlin Garcia: Jarlin the Marlin has allowed just four earned runs through his first 33 innings this season, resulting in an ERA of just 1.09. That said, he’s allowed an average distance of 244 feet over his past two starts, resulting in an RBBL of -69 on DraftKings. He could be due for some regression.
John Gant: He’ll earn a spot start for the Cardinals after spending the majority of the season alternating between the bullpen and the minors. Pitchers like that are always difficult to target in DFS since they likely won’t go deep into the game, but Gant could be the exception. The Cards bullpen has been recently taxed: Yesterday the relievers combined to throw 8.2 innings against the Cubs. They may have no choice but to let Gant eat innings today, which is appealing at just $4,200 on DraftKings.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Detroit Tigers:
The Tigers’ implied team total of 4.8 runs is tied for second on today’s slate, and they have an outstanding matchup against Rangers left-hander Matt Moore. He’s posted a WHIP of 1.61 over the past 12 months, but that probably undersells how good of a matchup this is for the Tigers. Moore’s numbers were inflated by pitching half of his games at AT&T Park in San Francisco last season, but he no longer has that luxury. Batters in the top six of the lineup have absolutely destroyed him over the past two seasons when facing him outside of San Francisco:
The only batter in the stack who doesn’t have the splits advantage against Moore is projected leadoff hitter Leonys Martin, but he’s posted a distance differential of +12 feet over his past 12 games. John Hicks could be a key member of this stack, especially given his catcher eligibility. He is covered in today’s Three Key MLB Players.
The Tigers also have the three highest-rated stacks on FanDuel, so let’s instead focus on the San Francisco Giants:
Their implied team total of 4.6 runs is tied for sixth on today’s slate, so their ownership should be modest at best, but they have plenty of upside against Phillies right-hander Zach Eflin, who has posted a HR/9 of 2.86 over the past year. Eflin has made only one start this season — a three-hit, one-run effort against the Marlins — but his Statcast data from that start wasn’t nearly as impressive with a 228-foot distance, 95-mph exit velocity, 31% hard-hit rate.
One player who stands out for the Giants is Brandon Belt. He’s posted an average distance of 251 feet over his past 14 games, which represents a differential of +15 feet when compared to his 12-month average. He also has historically destroyed right-handed pitchers when on the road, averaging a Plus/Minus of +2.06 on FanDuel.
Other Batters
Bryce Harper has been leading off for the Nationals recently, which gives him a greater chance for extra at-bats. He’s also smoked the baseball over his past 13 games, posting an average distance of 229 feet and hard-hit rate of 51%. He’s been priced way up across the industry — $5,900 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel – but anyone who doesn’t roster Strasburg will have money to use.
If you’re looking for a cheap catcher with upside, consider Jorge Alfaro. He’s taking on Giants right-hander Jeff Samardzija, and Alfaro has posted a .389 wOBA and .235 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. He’s also been one of the unluckiest batters in baseball over the past 15 days, owning an RBBL of +76. His average distance of 237 feet over that time frame represents an increase of +26 feet when compared to his 12-month average, and he costs just $2,900 on DraftKings.
Tommy Pham was limited to pinch-hit duties on Sunday night after leaving Saturday’s game with a groin injury. He could remain out of the starting lineup for today’s contest vs. the Marlins, but if he’s able to go he has appeal given his recent Statcast data. He’s posted an average distance of 241 feet over his past eight games, which represents a differential of +34 feet when compared to his 12-month average. He’s also posted strong differentials in both exit velocity (+5 mph) and hard-hit rate (+10 percentage points), so he’s not just hitting lazy fly balls.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: John Hicks and Leonys Martin
Photo Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA Today Sports
