The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an eight-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate is a little thin on top-end pitchers, with only three possessing salaries above $9,000 on FanDuel:
Carlos Carrasco seems like the top option out of the trio, especially on FanDuel, given his Bargain Rating of 97%. He leads all pitchers in K Prediction (8.3) and opponent implied run total (3.4), and his moneyline odds of -192 rank second. He’s also in the best recent form of the group: His 186-foot average batted-ball distance over the past two starts represents a differential of -21 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable distance differentials, K Predictions, and moneyline odds have been elite values:
As highlighted in today’s Three Key MLB Players, Carrasco is also the rare pitcher who performs better on the road, where he’s averaged 39.81 FanDuel points and a +8.09 Plus/Minus over his past 53 road starts.
Gerrit Cole is the most expensive pitcher on both sites and has been absolutely fantastic to start 2018:
However, he has a difficult matchup today with the Los Angeles Angels. Their projected lineup has posted a .332 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, and they own the fourth-lowest strikeout rate against right-handers to start 2018. Cole’s K Prediction of 6.1 is pretty mediocre, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and salaries ($12,600) have historically failed to return value on DraftKings (per our Trends tool):
Additionally, Cole doesn’t have strong recent Statcast data. He’s posted an average distance of 217 feet over his past two starts, which represents a differential of +15 feet when compared to his 12-month average. FantasyLabs has a proprietary metric called Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL), which measures the difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted-ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days, and Cole’s mark of -82 suggests that he’s significantly outpitched his peripherals over his past two starts.
Masahiro Tanaka rounds out the group of elite pitchers, but his results have been anything but elite over the past two starts. He’s allowed six earned runs in each, with the most recent coming against the feeble Miami Marlins. However, his Statcast data from those starts is actually pretty good, with his average distance of 196 feet representing a differential of -12 feet when compared to his 12 month average. He could be due for some progression.
He’s in a solid spot today against the Minnesota Twins. His -199 moneyline odds make him the largest favorite of the day, while his implied team total of 3.7 runs is tied for third. He also has a K Prediction of 7.5, which trails only Carrasco’s. Tanaka is especially appealing on DraftKings, where his Bargain Rating of 56% is the top mark among pitchers priced above $6,800.
Values
It’s hard to consider Gio Gonzalez a value on DraftKings, where his $10,800 salary makes him $2,000 more expensive than Tanaka. However, he’s priced at just $8,800 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 97%. He has a nice matchup with the San Francisco Giants, whose projected lineup has posted a wOBA of just .306 against left-handers over the past 12 months. He also benefits from facing them on the road, as AT&T Park has historically been one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. His Park Factor of 94 is the top mark on the slate, while he ranks third in opponent implied team total (3.7) and K Prediction (6.9).
Walker Buehler is a major wildcard. He’s making his first start of the season, which isn’t ideal, but he’s facing the Miami Marlins as a fill-in for the injured Rich Hill. He’s pitched just 9.1 total innings at the MLB level throughout his career — with all of those innings coming out of the bullpen — and he’s posted a dreadful 7.71 ERA over that time frame. However, he has displayed elite strikeout ability, posting a K/9 of 11.57, and he’s considered the Dodgers’ best prospect and one of the top prospects in all of baseball. He has a chance to be a major fantasy asset, if not today then at some point later this season.
He couldn’t ask for a better first opponent than the Marlins, whose projected lineup has posted a paltry .249 wOBA and a 26.0% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. There is currently no Vegas data available for the game, but the Dodgers also figure to be one of the largest favorites on the slate. Buehler is extremely appealing on DraftKings at $6,200, but it is possible the Dodgers could exercise some caution with him in his first start.
Fastballs
Trevor Cahill: He has more upside than the typical pitcher in his price range thanks to a 12-month K/9 of 9.69. He racked up eight strikeouts in his most recent start, and the Rangers have struck out in 25.7% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Mike Leake: He’s a pedestrian pitcher, evidenced by a K/9 of 6.34 over the past 12 months, but he has an elite matchup today vs. the Chicago White Sox. He’s a solid -150 favorite, and their projected lineup has struck out in 28.7% of at-bats against right-handers over the past year.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack on today’s slate (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
The Rockies are playing at Coors Field and unsurprisingly lead the slate with an implied team total of 6.0 runs. They’re taking on Padres right-hander Bryan Mitchell, who has managed a K/9 of just 4.32 over the past 12 months. The Rockies should put a lot of balls in play against Mitchell, and he’s allowed an average distance of 220 feet over his past two starts. That could spell a lot of trouble at Coors.
The above stack is also surprisingly affordable. Chris Iannetta is projected to bat second at just $3,500 on DraftKings, while projected No. 6 hitter David Dahl is priced at just $2,800. Dahl is particularly appealing given his success against right-handers in the past. He missed all of 2017 with an injury but posted a .380 wOBA and .218 ISO against righties in 2016. The only downside with the Rockies is their likely ownership on a day that lacks a true ace pitcher. If you do choose to stack them, you’ll likely need to focus on being contrarian with the rest of your roster spots.
The Rockies also own the top stack on FanDuel, so let’s focus on a different team. The A’s are third on the slate with their implied team total of 5.1 runs, and their Team Value Rating of 79 on FanDuel ranks second. An unconventional stack of their 1-2-6-8 hitters checks in as the top non-Rockies option in our stack builder:
They’re taking on Rangers left-hander Matt Moore, who has posted an awful 5.59 ERA to start the 2018 season. He’s been even worse at home, posting an 8.76 ERA over four starts. The A’s batters are also in excellent recent form, with each of the stacked batters owning a distance differential of at least +11 feet over the past 15 days:
Other Batters
Nelson Cruz is taking on White Sox right-hander Miguel Gonzalez, and he’s crushed righties to the tune of a .413 wOBA and .317 ISO over the past 12 months. The Mariners’ implied team total of 5.0 runs is tied for fourth on today’s slate, and he’s posted solid Statcast data over his past nine games.
The two batters with the longest average batted-ball distances both play for the Texas Rangers. Robinson Chirinos has crushed the ball over his past 10 games, and his average distance of 278 feet represents a ridiculous distance differential of +55 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Joey Gallo is second on the slate in 15-day distance, and his power potential gives him tremendous upside on virtually every slate. They could make for an intriguing stack today.
Manuel Margot is projected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Padres, which gives him considerable upside at Coors Field. He’s priced at just $4,300 on DraftKings, and comparably priced leadoff hitters have historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +1.93.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Coors Field
Photo Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA Today Sports
