The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 15-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate is relatively light on stud pitchers, with just two possessing a salary above $10,100 on DraftKings:
- Max Scherzer (R) $13,700, WAS @ ATL
- Masahiro Tanaka (R) $11,600, NYY vs. TOR
Scherzer is coming off a dominant performance in his most recent outing, pitching a complete game and tallying 11 strikeouts vs. the Chicago Cubs. He’s recorded double-digit strikeouts in four of his past six games, and his K/9 of 12.03 this season ranks third in the league. Unsurprisingly, he leads all pitchers on today’s slate with a K Prediction of 9.1.
Another factor working in his favor is his recent Statcast data. He’s limited his past two opponents to a hard-hit rate of just 21%, which represents a decrease of -7 percentage points compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and hard-hit differentials have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.94 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Unfortunately, Scherzer does have a difficult matchup vs. the Atlanta Braves. Their projected lineup has posted a wOBA of .311 against right-handers over the past 12 months, and their implied team total of 3.5 runs is on the high end for Scherzer: He’s had only two other starts this season with an opponent implied team total greater than 3.4 runs. He’s also just a moderate -141 favorite. Scherzer has an elite ceiling – which makes him an excellent target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) – but he carries a little more risk than usual for cash games.
Tanaka has been in excellent form recently, allowing two earned runs or fewer in four of his past five starts. He was particularly impressive in his most recent outing, shutting out the Mariners over eight innings while racking up 10 strikeouts. His recent Statcast data has been equally impressive, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -20 feet.
He has a tough matchup vs. the Toronto Blue Jays, but he’s still getting a lot of respect from Vegas: He leads all pitchers with an opponent implied team total of 3.3 runs and moneyline odds of -280. Historically, pitchers with comparable moneyline odds and distance differentials have averaged an incredible Plus/Minus of +14.48 on FanDuel. It’s always risky to pay up for Tanaka – especially considering he’s seen a price increase of +$2,200 on DraftKings and +$1,500 on FanDuel since the start of the season – but his value on today’s slate is undeniable.
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Values
Tyler Anderson will get one of the biggest park upgrades possible today vs. the San Francisco Giants. Pitching at AT&T Park rewards him with a Park Factor of 95, while his home stadium in Coors is the worst park for pitchers in all of baseball.
Pitching in San Francisco also rewards him with one of the best possible matchups. The Giants have been terrible offensively since August 26th, averaging just 2.5 runs per game. They’ve been absolutely awful vs. left-handed pitchers over that time frame, owning a wOBA of just .194 while posting a strikeout rate of 36.6%. We’ve seen some bad offenses over the past few seasons, but what the Giants are doing right now is unprecedented. Unsurprisingly, Anderson owns solid marks in both opponent implied team total (3.6 runs) and moneyline odds (-130), and his $6,400 salary on DraftKings makes him very appealing in this matchup.
Wei-Yin Chen is an intriguing option vs. the Philadelphia Phillies. He’s been solid recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.68 over his past 10 starts on DraftKings, but he owns some of the most drastic home/road splits in baseball. He’s pitched to an elite 1.77 ERA at home this season, but that number has ballooned to 9.13 on the road.
Unfortunately, his current matchup does take place in Philadelphia, but there are still reasons to like Chen on today’s slate. The Phillies’ projected lineup has struck out in 26.4% of at-bats against left-handers over the past 12 months, and Chen’s resulting K Prediction of 7.1 is tied for fourth on the slate. His Statcast data from his past two starts is also impressive, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -10 feet. His Vegas data is pretty terrifying – he has an opponent implied team total of 4.6 runs – but he has upside and should command minimal ownership.
Cole Hamels has been rocked over his past two starts, allowing batters to compile an average distance of 236 feet, exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 48%, but both of those starts have come on the road against good offenses. He’ll be back at home today vs. the Cincinnati Reds, and he’s posted a sparkling 0.86 ERA and 10.3 K/9 at Wrigley Field this season. The Reds have been mediocre against left-handers over the past 12 months, owning a .307 wOBA and 24.4% strikeout rate, and Hamels’ salary has decreased by $1,200 on DraftKings over his past four starts. This could be a prime buy-low opportunity.
Fastballs
Chris Archer: He always has strikeout upside given his 12-month K/9 of 9.35. He’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -19 feet and hard-hit differential of -10 percentage points. All that said, he does have a difficult matchup vs. the Milwaukee Brewers, who have an implied team total of 4.6 runs.
Dallas Keuchel: His opponent implied team total of 3.5 runs is tied for the second-lowest mark on the slate, while his moneyline odds of -170 are tied for third. As usual, the big knock with Keuchel is his lack of strikeout upside: He has a K Prediction of just 4.9 vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the New York Yankees:
- 1. Andrew McCutchen (R)
- 2. Aaron Hicks (S)
- 3. Miguel Andujar (R)
- 4. Giancarlo Stanton (R)
- 7. Luke Voit (R)
Total Salary: $21,700
The Yankees are implied for 5.8 runs today vs. Blue Jays right-hander Marco Estrada; that’s the top mark on the slate by a significant margin. Estrada has pitched to a 5.32 ERA this season, and his 5.73 FIP suggests his advanced numbers are even worse. He’s also pitched to a HR/9 of 1.87 over the past 12 months, which could spell trouble against a team with as much power as the Yankees.
Projected leadoff hitter McCutchen has struggled since joining the Yankees, owning a batting average of just .182, but his Statcast data suggests that better results could be coming. He’s posted an average distance of 248 feet and exit velocity of 94 miles per hour; both represent increases compared to his 12-month averages.
If you’re looking for a cheaper option, consider the Baltimore Orioles. They own the top non-Yankees stack on FanDuel:
- 1. Cedric Mullins (S)
- 2. Jonathan Villar (S)
- 3. Trey Mancini (R)
- 5. Chris Davis (L)
Total Salary: $10,900
The Orioles are cheap across the industry but look like a particularly good value on FanDuel: Their Team Value Rating of 89 is the top mark on the slate. They are implied for 4.7 runs vs. White Sox right-hander James Shields, who owns an xFIP of 5.07 in 2018. He’s also posted a HR/9 of 1.48 over the past 12 months and has underperformed his 12-month marks in both distance and hard-hit rate over his past two starts.
Conversely, the Orioles collectively enter today’s contest in good recent form: Only Mancini owns a negative distance differential among the stacked batters.
Other Batters
Hunter Dozier is extremely affordable at just $3,400 on DraftKings and has made exceptionally good contact over the past 15 days. He’s posted an average distance of 225 feet, exit velocity of 96 mph, and hard-hit rate of 62%, all three of which represent significant increases compared to his 12-month averages. He’s also projected to occupy the cleanup spot in the lineup, so he makes a lot of sense if you need a cheap batter.
The Indians are implied for 5.2 runs, which makes them a nice target for those looking to pivot off the Yankees. Their stacks should start with Francisco Lindor, especially on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s facing Tigers left-hander Matt Boyd, and Lindor has posted a .409 wOBA and .208 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months. He also enters today’s contest in good recent form, owning a distance differential of +10 feet over his past 14 games.
George Springer is on the positive side of his batting splits vs. Diamondbacks lefty Robbie Ray. He’s posted a .370 wOBA and .189 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months, and Ray has been hit extremely hard over his past two outings. He’s allowed his opponents to post an average exit velocity of 96 mph and hard-hit rate of 59%, and he’s among the worst pitchers in baseball this season in terms of walk rate and HR/FB rate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Masahiro Tanaka
Photo credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
