The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday evening brings us a 13-game main slate that starts at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
The top-rated pitcher on the slate is Ian Anderson of the Atlanta Braves. This will be Anderson’s third start since returning to the IL. I am not concerned about if Anderson is fully stretched out or not. He only threw 62 pitches in his previous start, but he lasted for 86 pitches his first start back.
Anderson is a solid starting pitcher in the league and is being priced as if he is a lower-end starter here. His biggest issue is issuing too many walks, as he has 45 walks to 98 strikeouts. In his last start in which he struggled, he issued four bases on balls.
He faces the Miami Marlins tonight, who he has kind of struggled with on the season. I would monitor the fact that he has zero strikeouts in both of his starts since coming back. That is probably my biggest concern with locking him in. He has only induced nine swings and misses in those two starts.
With the price point, it is not a huge risk. If you think Anderson can get the strikeout prone Marlins to indeed strikeout, then you have to play him.
The next best play is Julio Urias. Urias has been insanely impressive this season, and even though he is pitching for the Los Angeles Dodgers, I am not sure he is getting enough credit. He has not walked a batter in either of his last two starts and has an excellent ratio of 32 walks to 168 strikeouts on the year.
This matchup is not excellent as the Dodgers face the San Diego Padres. Urias has faced them twice with completely different results on the year. On August 24th, he went five innings, giving up only one hit and no runs, with four strikeouts. On June 21st, he went four innings, giving up six earned runs with five strikeouts. That June start was probably his worst of the season.
Urias has been locked in of late. He has not allowed more than two earned runs since July 16th at Colorado. He leads the MLB with 16 wins — boosted by pitching for the Dodgers.
Urias is underpriced here; he should probably be a pitcher over $10,000 but sits in the low-to-mid $9,000’s. He hits for six ProTrends tonight.
Carlos Rodon is not someone I am looking to trust at his high price point. He has been impressive all year but has been dealing with shoulder fatigue. He returned from the IL to make two starts, in which he only went five innings in each and combined for eight strikeouts. This past week he had to miss a turn in the rotation due to continuing concerns with the shoulder.
Rodon threw 7 2/3 and 34 2/3 innings the past two years due to injuries. This is true of any pitcher due to the oddness of 2020, but he is at a major jump at 119 2/3 innings this season. He admitted to not having as much on his fastball in those two starts, too.
For the high price point, I just would not back him at this time.
Paul Blackburn has been pretty impressive as a fill-in within the Oakland Athletics rotation. He is consistently going to come in pretty cheap, as he just does not strike out many batters. Currently, he has 12 strikeouts in 19 2/3 innings.
He got roughed up a bit last time out against the Toronto Blue Jays but pitched to a 2.81 ERA in his first three starts. The Texas Rangers are a solid offense to be targeting in DFS. They have moved to league average in K% but are 29th in runs per game at 3.89.
This is probably the best opportunity for Blackburn to pick up his first win, and he hits for five ProTrends tonight.
Robbie Ray should be mentioned. He is getting to be very high priced but can make for a safe play. The Baltimore Orioles should not be scaring him, and the Blue Jays are significant -280 favorites. Ray is absurdly hot right now, with double-digit strikeouts in four straight starts. He did have one of his poorer performances of the season in Camden Yards in June.
With Ray looking to make a move on Gerrit Cole for the AL Cy Young – I highly doubt that the Orioles are able to get to him. If you want the safety of Ray in cash games, that makes some sense. Overall, the price point for Urias is stronger to me.
Hitters
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Notable Stack
The top stack of the night belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
- 4. Yandy Diaz (R)
- 3. Nelson Cruz (R)
- 1. Manuel Margot (R)
- 5. Jordan Luplow (R)
This group is projected for 49.9 FanDuel points on a salary of $11,400. I love how cheap this core is coming in at. Margot is the top-rated hitter on the Bales Model for tonight. They get to face left-hander Matthew Boyd of the Detroit Tigers. This year, the Rays have not been necessarily prolific against lefties, but we all know how much Cruz loves to see a lefty when in the box. The Rays are tied for the second-highest implied run total on the night at 5.0. They are the highest-scoring team in the league, by a good margin, at 5.41 runs per game. They have averaged eight runs a game in their last three contests.
Other Hitters
A sneakier stack might be the Minnesota Twins. Josh Donaldson and Byron Buxton rate out as bargains, and Rob Refsnyder are one of the top-rated hitters. They face left-hander Daniel Lynch, who had an impressive August but was blown up last time out. He has walked at least three batters in his last five starts. He also has not been striking many batters out, with 43 strikeouts in 51 innings. The Twins also have 5.0 implied runs for tonight.
We have not talked about the team with the highest implied run total on the night, the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays are fresh off of sweeping the New York Yankees, and the last time they failed to score five runs was August 31st. They get to head to Camden Yards, which should mean some home runs. Their studs are going to be high priced but maybe look at Corey Dickerson as he gets to face a right-hander.
The Milwaukee Brewers are not necessarily my favorite offense in the world, but it sure helps facing Eli Morgan. Morgan is sitting at a 7.53 home ERA (with this game taking place in Cleveland) and has allowed a tough-to-swallow 15 home runs in 67 1/3 innings pitched. Christian Yelich and Kolten Wong both make for strong plays. Morgan has actually pitched slightly better to left-handed hitters, but that does not concern me too much.
Photo Credit: Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images
Pictured: Julio Urias
