The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a split slate: There’s a two-game early slate starting at 1:05 pm ET and a 13-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers on today’s slate have a salary of at least $11,300 on DraftKings:
The strongest Vegas data of the day belongs to Stephen Strasburg. He leads the slate in both opponent implied team total (3.2 runs) and moneyline odds (-185), and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically been solid options on DraftKings (per the Trends tool):
He’s set to face a Mets team that has leaned heavily on unproven guys down the stretch: Their projected lineup has a 12-month wOBA of just .298 against right-handed pitchers. Strasburg is the most prolific strikeout artist among today’s pitchers, owning a slate-high K/9 of 10.60 over the past 12 months, and his resulting K Prediction of 7.1 ranks second on the main slate. His eight Pro Trends also rank first among today’s pitchers.
The big question with Strasburg is just how deep he’ll be allowed to pitch in this game. The Nationals have long since clinched their division and have no chance of catching the Dodgers for the best record in the league. Strasburg lasted only 5.0 innings and 83 pitches in his last outing, so it’s very possible they’ll look to save his arm today. He will likely still carry the top ownership on the slate, which makes a fade consideration warranted for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Jose Quintana is coming off one of the best starts of his career against the Brewers, striking out 10 while pitching a complete game shutout. He has a matchup today against the Cincinnati Reds, whose projected lineup features the worst splits-adjusted wOBA on the two-game early slate. His K Prediction of 7.8 is the top mark on the slate, as is his moneyline odds of -180.
Despite coming off a complete game, Quintana is unfortunately facing some of the same questions as Strasburg. While Strasburg knows his postseason fate – he’ll be pitching Game 2 for the Nationals – the Cubs’ postseason rotation is still largely unclear. It’s conceivable Quintana could be slated to pitch Game 4 and therefore pitch as long as needed today, but it’s also conceivable he could start Games 1 or 2 with Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta struggling recently. Teammate Kyle Hendricks was pulled after just 5.0 innings and 81 pitches on Thursday, despite allowing no runs and striking out nine batters. Ultimately, Quintana seems like the top option on the early slate, but there is definitely uncertainty surrounding him as well.
Values
Trevor Bauer has been a strong option since the All-Star break, owning a 9-2 record over 13 starts. He’s been particularly effective over his last 10 on DraftKings, posting a positive Plus/Minus in nine of them:
He has an excellent matchup today against the Chicago White Sox, whose .308 wOBA against right-handed pitchers is the fourth-worst mark in the league this season. His K Prediction of 8.4 is the top mark among today’s pitchers, and his 15-day/12-month distance differential of -10 feet suggests he’s in good recent form as well. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and distance differentials have historically been excellent options on DraftKings:
Despite the Indians also being locked into the playoffs, Bauer doesn’t have the same availability questions as Strasburg and Quintana. For one, the Indians are still playing for home field advantage throughout the AL playoffs, currently owning just a one game lead over the Astros with three games to play. Bauer also seems locked in behind Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco in the Indians’ rotation, so he’ll have plenty of time to rest up before his start in the playoffs. The only concern is the 21 percent chance of precipitation at game start.
Jake Odorizzi doesn’t stand out in any one particular category, but he has solid marks across the board: 4.1 opponent implied team total, -143 moneyline odds, 6.6 K Prediction, and -8 foot distance differential. He also benefits from a high Park Factor of 86 pitching at home in Tampa Bay, and pitchers with comparable Park Factors, K Predictions, and distance differentials have historically exceeded expectations on FanDuel:
Odorizzi has also had a little extra juice on his fastball recently, posting a differential of +1.6 miles per hour over his last two starts compared to his 12-month average. A velocity increase that large has historically been significant from a fantasy perspective: Factoring a differential of +0.7 to +1.7 miles per hour (the largest number in our database for pitchers with comparable Statcast data) increases the Plus/Minus to +6.50 over 23 occurrences.
Fastballs
Charlie Morton: He has one of the top K Predictions on the slate at 6.8, and his $7,900 salary on DraftKings results in a Bargain Rating of 79 percent. He’s projected to pitch in a cold weather game in Boston, resulting in a Weather Rating of 80. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions, Bargain Ratings, and Weather Ratings have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.55.
Hyun-Jin Ryu: He’s pitched poorly recently, owning an average Plus/Minus of -1.14 on DraftKings over the past 10 games, and he’s starting today against the Rockies at Coors Field. That said, his Statcast data over his last two starts is solid, posting a distance differential of -22 feet and a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +75. It’s a small sample size, but pitchers at Coors with comparable numbers have a historical Plus/Minus of +4.87 and an Upside Rating of 33 percent over six occurrences. He’ll likely be owned at a sub-five percent rate, which does make him slightly intriguing as a contrarian option for GPPs.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the New York Yankees:
The Yankees are set to face Blue Jays right-hander Joe Biagini, who has not been particularly good recently. He’s allowed a batted ball distance of 216 feet over his last two starts, which represents an increase of +24 feet compared to his 12-month average. He’s also allowing roughly 10 percent more fly balls over that time frame, which does not translate well to the home run heaven known as Yankee Stadium.
The stacked batters are in solid collective form, with Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, and Jacoby Ellsbury all owning 15-day/12-month distance differentials of at least +11 feet. Judge’s Statcast line is ridiculous – he’s averaged a 266-foot distance, 96 MPH exit velocity, and 47 percent hard hit rate – but the top distance differential actually belongs to Ellsbury at +28 feet. Projected to bat eighth, he could serve as a key differentiator for Yankees stacks. You can review the ownership dynamics for a particular slate using the new DFS Contests Dashboard.
FantasyDraft allows you to roster up to six batters from the same team, and the top six-man stack on the main slate belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers lead the slate with an implied team total of 6.1 runs. They are underpriced on FantasyDraft relative to other sites, with each of the stacked batters owning a Bargain Rating of at least 81 percent. They’re taking on Rockies right-hander Chad Bettis, who has dreadful marks in both WHIP (1.55) and HR/9 (1.82) over the past 12 months.
Catcher Yasmani Grandal has crushed the ball recently, owning a distance differential of +46 feet over his last nine games, and batters with comparable differentials at Coors have a historical Plus/Minus of +4.87 on FantasyDraft. Although he wasn’t included in the above stack, you can easily replace one of the batters with Cody Bellinger, who has eligibility as both an infielder and outfielder and leads the team with a .396 wOBA and .334 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Batters
If you’re looking for a cheap option to go with the Coors bats, consider Drew Robinson at just $2,500 on DraftKings. He’s posted a distance differential of +48 feet over his last seven games, and his poor fantasy production over that time has resulted in a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +94. Batters with comparable salaries, differentials, and Recent Batted Ball Luck scores have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.20. Projected to bat eighth for the Rangers, he should also carry minimal ownership for GPPs.
Most people will likely opt for the Coors batters if they’re paying up, which could result in a guy like Giancarlo Stanton being overlooked. He’s facing a left-handed pitcher in Luiz Gohara, and Stanton has destroyed lefties over the past 12 months to the tune of a .481 wOBA and .437 ISO. The Marlins are implied for 5.1 runs on today’s slate, and Stanton has a historical Plus/Minus of +5.88 when facing a lefty with a comparable implied team total.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our MLB news blurbs:
