The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 15-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate lacks a true elite pitcher, but it does have three pitchers with a salary of at least $10,300 on DraftKings:
Zack Greinke is coming off one of his best starts of the season against the Giants, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his last five starts:
For today’s matchup against the Miami Marlins, Greinke is the largest favorite on the slate with -232 moneyline odds. His opponent implied team total of 3.5 runs is tied for second, while his K Prediction of 7.2 ranks fourth. Pitchers with comparable numbers in all three categories have historically returned value on DraftKings (per the Trends tool):
Greinke is also one of the few pitchers on the slate in good recent form. He’s posted 15-day/12-month distance and hard hit differentials of -3 feet and -8 percentage points, and his average of 99 pitches per start over that time frame ranks fifth among today’s pitchers. His 12-month average of 22.7 fantasy points per start on DraftKings gives him the highest historical scoring output of today’s starters as well. He should be a popular option.
Justin Verlander has been absolutely dominant over the past three months on FanDuel:
He’s been especially excellent since joining the Houston Astros, posting a 100 percent Consistency Rating and an average Plus/Minus of +22.41 over three starts. That said, his Statcast data from his two most recent starts is a bit concerning: He’s allowed an average distance of 229 feet, which represents a differential of +10 feet compared to his 12-month average. That’s resulted in a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of -93 for Verlander, suggesting that he’s outperformed his underlying numbers by a significant margin.
His Vegas data in today’s matchup against the Los Angeles Angels is average: His opponent implied team total of 3.5 runs is tied with Greinke’s mark, although his moneyline odds of -163 are significantly lower. His K Prediction of 6.6 is tied for seventh on today’s slate. Most DFS players paying up at pitcher will probably opt for Greinke, and there are plenty of appealing value options to choose from as well. That should result in reduced ownership for Verlander, which Pro subscribers can review using the DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Values
The top Vegas data on the slate belongs to Rich Hill at just $9,400 on DraftKings. His opponent implied team total of 3.0 runs is the top mark on the slate by half a run, and his moneyline odds of -220 rank second. Pitchers with comparable Vegas numbers have historically presented good value on DraftKings:
He has one of the top matchups on the slate against the San Francisco Giants. Their projected lineup has a slate-low .274 wOBA split over the past 12 months, and their strikeout rate of 24.9 ranks poorly as well. Hill leads the slate with a 12-month K/9 of 10.74, and his resulting K Prediction of 8.0 ranks second.
Hill is coming off a good start against the Washington Nationals, posting a Plus/Minus of +9.42, and he managed to accomplish that feat while throwing just 74 pitches. He will likely increase that mark today but probably not by a huge margin; he’s averaged just 88.5 pitches per start this season. That definitely limits his upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), where he’ll likely be one of the most popular targets on the slate.
Jon Gray has been excellent recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.09 on DraftKings over his last 10 starts, and he looks to be in a great spot today. He leads the slate with a K Prediction of 8.1, and he has the top matchup of the day against the Padres in San Diego. They have the second-worst wOBA (.300) and third-highest K rate (25.0 percent) against right handed pitchers this season, and pitching in San Diego results in one of the biggest park upgrades possible for Gray. Gray’s home stadium of Coors Field represents the lowest Park Factor for pitchers, while Petco Park rewards pitchers with a Park Factor of 80.
Gray faced this same team at Coors in his last start and allowed just three baserunners while striking out seven over five innings. He was removed earlier than normal, throwing just 63 pitches in that contest, but that was the result of a long rain delay. Prior to that, he had thrown at least 97 pitches in seven straight starts; he should have a long leash today against a weak offense.
Fastballs
Trevor Bauer: He’s another pitcher in excellent recent form, with an average DraftKings Plus/Minus of +6.46 over his last 10 starts. Playing for the Indians obviously helps – he’s racked up seven wins over that time frame – and he’s a strong -171 favorite today against the Seattle Mariners. His K Prediction of 6.8 ranks sixth on today’s slate, and he’s posted a distance differential of -4 feet over his last two starts.
Masahiro Tanaka: The stud pitcher not mentioned above, Tanaka has historically been a hit-or-miss option. His Upside Rating of 17 percent over the past 12 months is the top mark for pitchers above $6,800, but his Consistency Rating of 57 percent is quite low for a pitcher of his caliber. He’s a -165 favorite today against the Toronto Blue Jays and offers as much potential as anyone for GPPs.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. FantasyDraft allows you to roster up to six batters from the same team, and today’s top-rated six-man stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
The Diamondbacks are implied for a slate-high 5.6 runs against the Marlins. They’re set to face left-handed pitcher Adam Conley, who has allowed an average distance of 223 feet, exit velocity of 91 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 38 percent over his last three starts. Those numbers all represent increases compared to his 12-month averages, which are not that impressive either.
The Diamondbacks are one of the most potent offensive teams in the league, but they’re especially dangerous against left-handed pitchers. Paul Goldschmidt and J.D. Martinez have crushed lefties, with Goldschmidt owning a .402 wOBA and .258 ISO and Martinez owning a .509 wOBA and .473 ISO over the past 12 months. Martinez is also in excellent recent form, owning 15-day/12-month distance and hard hit differentials of +20 feet and +9 percentage points.
Adam Rosales could serve as an important differentiator for Diamondbacks stacks at just $5,200. Projected to bat seventh, he’s hit lefties significantly better than righties over the past 12 months, and he should have lower ownership than some of his teammates with more premium spots in the lineup. You can review the ownership dynamics of a particular stack using the new DFS Contests Dashboard.
The Diamondbacks also have the top-rated stack on DraftKings, but their batters are significantly more expensive on DraftKings than they are on FantasyDraft. If you’re looking for a cheaper option on DraftKings, consider the New York Mets:
None of the above batters have a salary greater than $3,800, so they can be easily paired with an expensive pitcher or secondary stack. The Mets are implied for 4.6 runs against Nationals righty Edwin Jackson, who has dreadful 12-month marks in both WHIP (1.55) and HR/9 (2.40). The Mets are collectively in excellent form, with each of the stacked batters owning a distance differential of +10 feet over the past 15 days:
Projected cleanup hitter Dominic Smith has an average Plus/Minus of +1.03 on DraftKings over his last 10 games, but his Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +50 suggests he’s been unlucky over that time frame. Brandon Nimmo has historically hit right-handers well, owning a .402 wOBA over the past 12 months.
Batters
Carlos Gonzalez is playing on the road, which should make him an afterthought for most people on today’s slate; he has historical ownership of just 3.6 percent on the road. He leads the slate with 11 Pro Trends and is in excellent recent form with a distance differential of +49 feet over his last 11 games. Teammate Charlie Blackmon also rates well in our Pro Models, and stacking the Rockies on the road with their big salaries will likely have minimal ownership.
Teoscar Hernandez is projected to bat leadoff for the Blue Jays, and he’s been one of the unluckiest hitters on FanDuel recently. He has an average Plus/Minus of -3.31 over his last 10 games despite a distance differential of +15 feet; that results in a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +83. He’s shown some power against righties over the past 12 months, owning a .236 ISO, and Tanaka has allowed a career-high 32 home runs over 28 starts this season.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
