The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a two-game early slate starting at 1:05 pm ET and a 13-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Clayton Kershaw is set to return from the disabled list today, and he headlines a group of four pitchers with salaries of at least $11,100 on DraftKings:
Kershaw couldn’t ask for a better first matchup than he has today against the San Diego Padres. Their projected lineup leads the slate with a 12-month splits-adjusted strikeout rate of 30.3 percent, along with a low .288 team wOBA against left-handed pitchers this season. Pitchers have feasted against the Padres in 2017, posting a league-best Plus/Minus of +2.44 this season (per the MLB Trends tool):
Kershaw has faced the Padres 11 prior times over the past three seasons, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +11.05 against them. His opponent implied team total of 2.8 runs, moneyline odds of -235, and K Prediction of 9.7 all rank first on today’s slate, and pitchers with comparable numbers in all three categories have historically dominated on DraftKings:
The only question with Kershaw is how deep he’ll be allowed to pitch in this game. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Dodgers put him on some sort of pitch count after missing over a month, which would obviously cap his upside. He’ll likely be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate, which Pro Subscribers can review using the DFS Ownership Dashboard, and the combination of projected ownership and possible pitch count might make some fade consideration warranted for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). Still, this is arguably the best pitcher in the league playing the worst offense in the league; even with a limited pitch count, Kershaw could put up a massive total.
Gerrit Cole may not be Kershaw, but he has been excellent on FanDuel over his last 10 starts:
His opponent implied team total of 3.6 runs ranks second on the slate, and pitching at home in pitcher-friendly PNC Park results in a Park Factor of 87. Cole also has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent on FanDuel, and pitchers with comparable Bargain Ratings and opponent implied team totals have historically been solid investments:
His Statcast data from his last two starts is quite good, particularly his average distance of 199 feet. His average pitch count of 106 pitches over that time frame is also significant; adding that to the above trend increases the Plus/Minus to +5.41. His K Prediction of 6.2 isn’t ideal considering his salary, but he still offers significant upside today.
Values
Both Luis Castillo and Dinelson Lamet offer a unique combination of strikeout upside and recent batted ball profile on today’s slate. Both pitchers have a top-four K Prediction among today’s starters, and both have posted impressive distance differentials over their last two starts:
- Castillo: 7.2 K Prediction, -21 foot distance differential
- Lamet: 8.7 K Prediction, -27 foot distance differential
Lamet’s numbers are slightly more impressive, and at $7,600 on DraftKings he costs almost $2,000 less than Castillo. Lamet is opposing Kershaw, however, resulting in brutal moneyline odds of +214. Still, pitchers with comparable distance differentials and K Predictions have historically been valuable assets on DraftKings:
Castillo has a much more reasonable matchup against the Pirates, and while still an underdog, his opponent implied team total of 4.0 runs and moneyline odds of +118 are respectable on this slate. Like Cole, Castillo also benefits from a Park Factor of 88, and moving to PNC Park from the home run haven in Cincinnati represents a massive upgrade for Castillo. Home runs have been a bit of an issue for Castillo – he’s allowed 10 over just 77.1 innings pitched – but PNC Park has allowed the third-fewest home runs this season. He offers as much upside as anyone not named Kershaw on today’s slate.
Jimmy Nelson does’t stand out in any one category today, but he has solid marks in a variety of categories: moneyline odds (-142), opponent implied team total (4.2 runs), K Prediction (6.0), and distance differential (-5 feet). Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in all four categories have been decent values on DraftKings:
He may not have the same upside as Castillo and Lamet, but his Vegas data makes him a more trustworthy option for cash games. He’s affordable at just $8,400 on DraftKings.
Tanner Roark is opposing Nelson in Milwaukee, and his K Prediction of 7.6 ranks third on today’s slate. He’s also averaged a massive 112 pitches over his last two starts, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and recent pitch counts have been strong on FanDuel:
He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.46 over his last 10 starts and looks like another option with upside against a Milwaukee team that has the worst strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitchers.
Fastball
Carlos Carrasco: He’s second on the day with moneyline odds of -220, and his K Prediction of 7.1 is tied for fourth. He’s also posted a distance differential of -3 feet over his last two starts, and pitchers with comparable odds, K Predictions, and distance differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.63 on DraftKings. He’s priced at an awkward $12,200 in the all-day slate – he’s significantly more than the value options and only slightly less than Kershaw – which could result in reduced ownership. He’ll be chalky in the early-only slate.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. We’ve recently added FantasyDraft tools to our Player Models, and they allow you to stack up to six players from the same team. The top six-man FantasyDraft stack on today’s slate belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Diamondbacks lead today’s slate with an implied team total of 6.1 runs. That’s not exactly surprising considering they’re playing in Coors, but it is rare to see a visitor favored at Coors. The visiting team has historically posted a lower ownership percentage than the Rockies at Coors, but that doesn’t mean that will be the case today.
In addition to playing at Coors, the Diamondbacks are collectively underpriced on FantasyDraft. David Peralta, Chris Iannetta, and Adam Rosales all have Bargain Ratings of 81 percent, while A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, and J.D. Martinez have Bargain Ratings of 94 percent. They’re facing Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland, which will put the majority of the stacked batters on the positive side of their batting splits. Goldschmidt and Martinez in particular have destroyed lefties, owning 12-month wOBAs of .431 and .487 and ISOs of .248 and .391, respectively.
Being contrarian at Coors can be difficult, but including Rosales in Diamondbacks stacks might help in that department. He’s projected to bat seventh at just $6,300, and he’s posted 15-day/12-month distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of +42 feet, +7 miles per hour, and +22 percentage points. You can review the ownership dynamics for a particular stack using our new DFS Contests Dashboard.
The top five-man DraftKings stack excluding the teams at Coors belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
The Rays’ implied team total of 5.4 runs is tied for fifth on today’s slate, yet all five of the stacked batters have ownership projections of just two to four percent. They’re set to face White Sox right-hander Reynaldo Lopez, who allowed a horrid batted ball distance of 255 feet over his most recent start. Facing a right-handed pitcher also puts the entirety of the stacked batters on the positive side of their batting splits:
Leadoff hitter Kevin Kiermaier is in the best recent form of the group, posting a distance differential of +31 feet over his last 12 games. Leadoff hitters with comparable implied team totals and distance differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.38 on DraftKings.
Batters
The Colorado bats will likely be popular on today’s slate, but Mark Reynolds has not gotten the same love as his teammates at Coors this season. His average DraftKings ownership ranks just seventh among Rockies regulars, despite the fact that his average Plus/Minus trails just Charlie Blackmon‘s. He leads today’s slate with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and his distance differential of +38 feet is one of the top marks.
Greg Bird has been back in the Yankees lineup for only six games, and his production over that time frame has been dreadful:
His Statcast data, however, suggests things should have gone better for him; he leads the slate with a Recent Batted Ball Luck Score of +94. He’s cheap at just $3,000 on DraftKings, and left-handed batters at Yankee Stadium benefit from the top Park Factor outside of Coors Field on today’s slate.
The Indians will likely be the most popular target on the early slate – their implied team total of 5.7 runs is the top mark by a wide margin – and one possible way to stack them in a contrarian manner could be including Carlos Santana. Including Santana will mean excluding Edwin Encarnacion since both players are only first base-eligible, and Encarnacion has the edge in both lineup spot (four vs. six) and salary ($4,400 vs. $4,800); he should definitely be owned at the higher rate of the two. Santana does hold the edge in recent Statcast data, however, owning a distance differential of +9 feet over his last 12 games.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
