The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a 15-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
I’ll be honest right from the jump: Today’s group of pitching options is weak. On FanDuel, there are only two pitchers out of the 30 going priced at $9,000 or higher, and they’re just barely above that: Jimmy Nelson is the highest-priced option at $9,400, and Rich Hill is $9,300. Hill is the highest-priced guy on DraftKings at $12,200, but there are only four pitchers priced above $9,500 there:
Hill is currently the highest-rated pitcher in the Bales Model for both sites, and he’ll look to rebound after missing salary-based expectations in two straight starts. He was on quite a tear in July before posting just 29.0 FanDuel points against a terrible Giants offense, but he did get back up to eight strikeouts last game against the Mets:
Today he gets a glorious matchup against the San Diego Padres, who rank 29th this year with an awful .301 team wOBA as well as third with a high 25.2 percent team strikeout rate. They’re a DFS pitcher’s dream, and Hill as a result has both the best K Prediction at 9.0 and Vegas data: He is a massive favorite with -285 moneyline odds, and the Padres are currently implied for just 2.9 runs — 0.9 runs less than any other team. Those are powerful marks: Out of all the pitchers on FanDuel in our database since 2012, only 112 have had Vegas data similar to Hill’s today. Those pitchers crushed, averaging 43.38 FanDuel points and a +8.49 Plus/Minus with a ridiculous 72.3 percent Consistency Rating (per the MLB Trends tool):
If we add in a trend filter for Hill’s K Prediction, the sample size gets smaller, which shows just how rare Hill’s data points are:
Maybe we have a stud in this slate after all. But I would be remiss if I didn’t mention his recent Statcast data, which is terrible: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 210 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 46 percent, and a hard hit rate of 42 percent. I don’t imagine those marks will affect his ownership levels today considering his ridiculous Vegas data; he should be incredibly chalky.
Pro Subscribers can review ownership trends across guaranteed prize pools of various buy-in levels after lineups lock via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
It might be surprising to see Jimmy Nelson with the highest salary today, but it’s hard to deny his recent production:
He has gone for at least 43.0 FanDuel points and seven strikeouts in each of his last three games, all of which came against good offenses in the Rays, Cardinals, and Nationals. He’ll have his hands full again today against a Reds team that ranks eighth in the league with a .326 team wOBA, but Vegas bettors seem to be behind him: He is a strong -185 moneyline favorite, and the Reds are currently implied for 3.8 runs. Further, his Statcast data is right in line with his current form: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 183 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 22 percent, and a hard hit rate of 25 percent. Those are elite marks that suggest that Nelson possesses enough safety to look at in cash games. However, in tournaments it might be a different story: Nelson has a low 5.6 K Prediction against a Reds squad whose projected lineup has a low .217 SO/AB rate. For that reason, it might be wise to get exposure to Jimmy in cash games and largely fade him in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), although he might not even be a great cash-game play because of Hill’s salary and data.
After lineup lock you can see how other DFS players chose to use Nelson by using our new DFS Contests Dashboard.
Values
Houston righty Charlie Morton has brutal Vegas data: He’s on the road in Texas facing a Rangers team currently implied for 4.9 runs, and he’s a small favorite with -119 moneyline odds. He definitely brings risk given the matchup and location — it is projected to be a balmy 92 degrees at game time (hot weather is good for batters) — but he also possesses the best recent Statcast data in the entire slate. Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 176 feet, an exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 27 percent, and a hard hit rate of just eight percent. He’s averaged a +5.78 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency Rating, and he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last seven starts. Again, there’s a lot of risk, but he’s also projected for just two to four percent ownership on FanDuel, and his 7.5 K Prediction is the third-highest mark today. He’s affordable on FanDuel, where his $8,400 price tag comes with an 87 percent Bargain Rating, and he could pay off big in tournaments as a boom-or-bust option.
Jon Gray is similar to Morton as a play, and he’s $900 cheaper on DraftKings and $500 cheaper on FanDuel. He faces a Miami Marlins team currently implied for 4.4 runs, and he’s a small favorite with -117 moneyline odds. Like Morton, his recent Statcast data is excellent: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 194 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 28 percent. He scored 40.0 FanDuel points in each of those games, and all of those marks are notable considering Gray posted them in Coors Field against the Phillies and on the road against a powerful Nationals offense. Today he visits Marlins Park, where he owns a slate-high Park Factor of 86. His 6.7 K Prediction is fairly average on most slates, but it is a top-five mark in this one; his past-year SO/9 mark of 10.131 — the fourth-highest mark in the slate — shows his upside. Finally, like Morton he has an ownership projection of just two to four percent on FanDuel. Again, this isn’t the best pitching slate — but it at least has some potentially contrarian guys with high upside. Perhaps it is worth shifting your typical cash:GPP bankroll ratio in favor of tournaments tonight.
Fastball
Carlos Carrasco: He’s been brutal lately, averaging a -1.92 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 40 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 starts. His Statcast data sucks as well, as he’s allowed a distance of 233 feet, an exit velocity of 92 MPH, and a hard hit rate of 46 percent over his last two games. All that said, his 7.6 K Prediction is the second-highest mark in the slate.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated DraftKings stack (per the player ratings in the Bales Model) currently belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
The Cubs face Arizona righty Taijuan Walker, who has put up solid production of late:
That said, our proprietary Recent Batted Ball Luck metric suggests he could be due for some regression. Here’s the definition:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
Despite posting a +2.98 DraftKings Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, Walker has some concerning recent Statcast data, including a 227-foot batted ball distance allowed and a 91 MPH exit velocity allowed. That is dangerous, especially at home at Chase Field, where it is projected to be 98 degrees at first pitch. The Cubs and Diamondbacks hitters have a slate-high 86 Weather Rating in this game, and balls could fly out of the park in Arizona tonight.
We’ve recently added tools for FantasyDraft in Models, and I have a piece on FantasyDraft scoring, rosters, and strategy. FantasyDraft allows six batters in a stack, so let’s take a look at a top group for today’s main slate:
The Minnesota Twins go up against Detroit righty Anibal Sanchez, who has the highest past-year HR/9 mark at 2.443. He allowed a whopping five home runs — yes, five home runs in just three innings — to the Orioles last game, although surprisingly his Statcast data isn’t awful. He’s allowed a high 228-foot batted ball distance, but his 89 MPH exit velocity allowed mark is a little below average. Still, he gives away home runs like candy, and guys like Max Kepler will try to take advantage. Over his last 12 games, Kepler has averaged a batted ball distance of 229 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 48 percent. The Twins are implied for 5.0 runs tonight, which is actually just the eighth-highest mark.
Batters
The St. Louis Cardinals have been on an offensive tear lately, and projected leadoff hitter Matt Carpenter has been a big reason why: He’s gone for an average of 14.2 DraftKings points per game and has excellent recent Statcast data. Over his last 12, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 251 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 46 percent. He owns a .214 ISO against righties and gets a pitcher in Atlanta righty Michael Foltynewicz who has atrocious recent Statcast data despite a brilliant 35.85 fantasy point performance in his last start. Over his last two game, Folty has allowed a batted ball distance of 246 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 50 percent. If those marks ring true tonight, the Cardinals could put up a lot of runs again.
Joey Gallo leads all DraftKings batters tonight with 11 Pro Trends, which is impressive considering he’s projected to bat seventh for the Rangers. He’s been made fun of on social media for having extreme splits between home runs and all other hits during his career, but that’s not really an issue for DFS; home runs win GPPs. He has a .359 ISO against righties over the past year, and his recent Statcast data is almost unbelievable. Over his last 12 games, he’s had a batted ball distance of 291 feet, an exit velocity of 100 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 54 percent, and a hard hit rate of 58 percent. He’s a terrifying fade in tournaments.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
