The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a 14-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There may be only five pitchers priced above $9,000 today on FanDuel, but it’s quite the group:
Chris Sale and Max Scherzer have been perhaps the best two pitchers in baseball this year; their Wins Above Replacement (WAR) marks of 5.8 and 4.7 easily lead the league. There are not many slates throughout the year with two options at the top like this, which will create an intriguing ownership dynamic not only between these two but the whole slate. There’s a Coors Field game, and the Royals and Astros are also both implied for six-plus runs. Fading a stud pitcher in favor of Coors batters is always a tough decision; are users really going to fade both Sale and Scherzer?
They’ve both been excellent of late: Sale went for 66.0 FanDuel points against the Yankees’ high-powered offense in his last start and has averaged a robust +12.62 Plus/Minus on a 90 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games. Scherzer, meanwhile, has done this:
Further, they have very similar, solid Statcast data over their last two starts:
- Sale: 214-foot batted ball distance, 88 MPH exit velocity, 36 percent hard hit rate
- Scherzer: 212-foot batted ball distance, 89 MPH exit velocity, 24 percent hard hit rate
Sale’s hard hit rate allowed has been a little high, but, again, he faced the Yankees; today’s matchup is different. On that note, these pitchers have massively differently matchups, which will probably be the deciding factor and thus affect ownership levels. Sale faces the Angels, who rank 28th in the league with a miserable .299 team wOBA. Sale gets them on the road, which gives him a high Park Factor of 83. They’re currently implied for 3.2 runs, and Sale is a sizable favorite with -176 moneyline odds. Scherzer, on the other hand, has a brutal matchup against the Diamondbacks, who rank seventh this season with a .328 team wOBA and are currently implied for 3.9 runs. To make matters worse, he’s at Chase Field, which has historically been one of the worst parks for pitchers dating back to 2012 (per our MLB Trends tool):
A quick aside: Oddly enough, Chase has granted the most average FanDuel points to pitchers this year (29.95). I’m not sure why this year is such an anomaly given what we know about Chase, but keep that in mind. It’s a bad park, but it’s not as if pitchers can’t put up nice games there; it’s not Coors.
There’s one other huge difference between Sale and Scherzer today: Their K Predictions. While Sale certainly has the easier matchup in terms of getting outs, the Angels don’t strike out often; they rank 22nd in the league with a 20.0 percent K rate. Thus, Sale has a perhaps lower-than-expected K Prediction of 7.7, which might seem a bit odd considering he’s gone for at least nine in his last six games:
That said, if he does disappoint, it could open the door for people who roster Scherzer instead to jump up the leaderboards. Scherzer has a high implied run total, but his massive 10.5 K Prediction easily leads the slate. Per the MLB Trends tool, out of the 26,812 starting pitchers since 2012, only 32 have boasted a double-digit K Prediction; they’ve absolutely smashed value:
K Prediction is a FantasyLabs proprietary metric, and most non-Labs users will probably look at SO/9 rates. Sale and Scherzer are close in that regard:
- Sale: 11.701
- Scherzer: 11.829
Scherzer’s higher strikeout upside is likely underrated by the DFS community. Given that and Sale’s much better Vegas data, Scherzer could actually hold a lot less ownership than you might expect. Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels on our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
What makes the pitching decision even harder is that Dodgers lefty Alex Wood might have better data than both Sale and Scherzer, and he’s at least $900 cheaper on DraftKings and $1,400 cheaper on FanDuel. Wood has been a Scherzer-like monster of late . . .
. . . averaging a +16.53 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 90 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games. His recent Statcast data includes only his most recent start, but it’s pretty darn impressive: In that game, he allowed a batted ball distance of 139 feet, an exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of just six percent. Those marks aren’t quite as rare as a 10-plus K Prediction, but it’s pretty close. Wood actually boasts the best Vegas data of any pitcher tonight: He’s facing a Braves squad currently implied for just 2.8 runs, and he’s a gargantuan favorite with -280 moneyline odds. Pitchers with similar data have historically averaged 44.43 FanDuel points, a +9.17 Plus/Minus, and a ridiculous 74.0 percent Consistency Rating.
Finally, Wood’s 8.4 K Prediction is the second-best mark today behind Scherzer’s. Again, given all of the variables, Wood might be the best cash-game pitching prospect today independent of pricing.
Values
It’s an embarrassment of riches at the pitcher position; I mentioned three elite options above and didn’t even touch on Yu Darvish (I’ll get to him in the “Fastballs” section). Jeff Samardzija is the second-highest rated pitcher in the Bales Model today behind Wood, and he would be a surefire cash-game option in pretty much any other slate. He’s facing the Padres, who are essentially the perfect matchup for a DFS pitcher: They rank 29th in the league with a .297 team wOBA and also first with a massive 25.8 percent strikeout rate. They’re currently implied for 3.3 runs and Samardzija has a 7.9 K Prediction; those are both top-five marks in this loaded pitching slate. Further, he’s at home in San Francisco, which gives him a slate-high 93 Park Factor. Again, Samardzija would be an easy cash-game option in most slates, but he’s currently projected for just nine to 12 percent ownership on FanDuel.
You likely don’t have to venture further down because of the top-end options, but Aaron Nola is an interesting SP2 on DraftKings, where his $8,400 price tag comes with a 69 percent Bargain Rating. He’s been very solid of late, posting a +6.26 Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games, and he’s got a lot of upside today against the Brewers. He has a 4.0 opponent implied run total, but the Brewers rank third in the league with a 25.4 percent strikeout rate in 2017. Nola ranks third with his 8.2 K Prediction, behind only Scherzer and Wood. He does have mildly concerning Statcast data — he’s allowed a 91 MPH exit velocity and a 45 percent hard hit rate over the last two starts — but he sets up well for tournaments and is currently projected for just nine to 12 percent ownership on DraftKings.
Fastball
Yu Darvish: He’ll likely have minuscule ownership levels because of the surrounding options, but he does have upside. He faces a Rays team that ranks fourth with a high 25.0 percent strikeout rate; he owns a strong 7.6 K Prediction. He also boasts nice Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 189 feet, an exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 28 percent.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per player ratings in the Bales Model) belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates:
The Pirates are visitors at Coors Field tonight, and yet they have only the fourth-highest implied team total at 5.6 runs. That could keep their ownership levels down, and that’s very intriguing against Rockies righty Jeff Hoffman, who has concerning recent Statcast data. Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 238 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 51 percent, and a hard hit rate of 37 percent. The above five batters all have ownership projections between two and eight percent, and they could easily put up double-digit runs at Coors Field.
We’ve recently added tools for FantasyDraft in Models, and I have a piece on FantasyDraft scoring, rosters, and strategy. They allow six batters in a stack, so let’s take a look at a highly-rated group for the main slate:
Jay Persson wrote about the Royals, Dodgers, and Astros in today’s stacking piece, but this Reds combination has a lot of upside as well. They’re currently implied for 5.2 runs against Miami righty Jose Urena, who has concerning Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 232 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 60 percent, and a hard hit rate of 42 percent. That’s dangerous against the Reds, especially against Zack Cozart, Joey Votto, and Eugenio Suarez, all of whom have recent exit velocities of 92-plus MPH.
Batters
Justin Smoak is projected to bat cleanup for a Blue Jays squad currently implied for just 4.4 runs, which means he should be low-owned. He has some of the best recent Statcast data of all batters today: Over his last 11 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 263 feet, an exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 50 percent, and a hard hit rate of 50 percent. He had two home runs yesterday and now faces Indians righty Trevor Bauer, who is coming off a brutal outing, allowing four runs in just 0.2 innings pitched to the Athletics. Smoak is priced up at $4,600 on DraftKings and is on the wrong side of his splits against a RHP, which should further depress his ownership.
Seattle righty Andrew Moore has four starts this year, and he’s allowed quite a few home runs:
His Statcast data is also poor: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 243 feet and an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour. He’s facing the Yankees, who own one of the most explosive offenses in the league, ranking fourth with a .334 wOBA. The Yankees are currently implied for 4.7 runs, which is just slightly above average in today’s slate. Most of their batters are currently projected for less than five percent ownership, and Aaron Judge is only implied for five to eight percent. The Yankees will bust out of their slump at some point, and they’ll likely win someone a tournament when they do.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
