The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a 15-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are six pitchers priced at $9,000 or above on FanDuel, headlined by Mets righty Jacob deGrom:
deGrom has an average matchup against a Rockies squad that has a splits-adjusted .320 team wOBA against righties this year, but he still has the best opponent implied total at 3.7 runs. He’s coming off a mediocre result in his last start, going for just 30.0 FanDuel points against the St. Louis Cardinals; he allowed four runs and an incredible four homers. Before that, he had been on fire, going for between 52.0 and 64.0 fantasy points in each of his prior four starts. Despite the four home runs allowed, his Statcast data isn’t all that bad: Over his last two outings, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 208 feet, an exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 32 percent. Those aren’t elite numbers, but they’re impressive considering his last game.
He has a respectable 7.6 K Prediction, which is only 0.3 strikeouts below Carlos Carrasco‘s slate-high mark of 7.9. The Indians righty will definitely affect deGrom’s ownership: Given Carrasco’s higher K Prediction and better matchup against the Athletics, who rank 24th this season with a .313 team wOBA, DFS players might prefer him to deGrom. Further, Carrasco is in a game with no chance of precipitation, whereas there’s a 28 percent chance of rain at game time in New York (per the MLB Lineups page). Finally, Carrasco is a full $1,400 cheaper on FanDuel, where he has a 98 percent Bargain Rating. He’s the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings at $12,100, so the same ownership dynamic between the two likely won’t exist; make sure you buy each pitcher at their respective value spots.
Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels on our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
It gets ugly after deGrom and Carrasco, although that does mean there are places to find guys with low ownership. One other guy with solid (albeit confusing) data points is Seattle lefty James Paxton. He’s facing the White Sox in Chicago at a hitter’s park, and the White Sox have notoriously ridiculous splits against lefties this season. Against LHP, they rank third in the league with a splits-adjusted .346 team wOBA. That said, Paxton’s 4.1 opponent implied run total is fairly strong in this ugly slate and much lower than one might expect for a lefty versus the White Sox. He is coming off a strong outing of 52.0 FanDuel points and has great Statcast data — over his last two games he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 198 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 30 percent — so perhaps bettors think he can overcome the White Sox’s splits.
Values
Charlie Morton has gone for at least 17.0 DraftKings points in each of his last six starts . . .
. . . although that has been over a span of three months due to a stint on the disabled list. He looked strong in his last outing before the All-Star break, allowing just four hits and one run to the Blue Jays, and his Statcast data confirms his nice form: In that game, he allowed a batted ball distance of 196 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 12 percent. Most importantly, he got up to 95 pitches. He has a solid matchup today against the Twins, who rank 19th in the league with a .318 team wOBA and are implied for just 4.0 runs today. Further, he’s actually the second-largest favorite of the day at -165, and his 7.8 K Prediction is the second-best mark as well. At just $6,900 on DraftKings, that’ll play.
Johnny Cueto is below $9,000 on DraftKings, which is probably warranted given his recent play:
Put simply: He’s sucked, averaging a -5.23 Plus/Minus with just a 20 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 starts and going for -2.30 fantasy points last game against the Marlins. His Statcast data is predictably terrible, too: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 211 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 42 percent. That said, he’s facing the San Diego Padres, who have been easily the most generous team to opposing pitchers this season (per the MLB Trends tool):
The question is whether the foul stench of Cueto’s play overpowers the delightful aroma of the San Diego batters (or some metaphor about smells). According to the Trends tool, pitchers with awful Statcast data haven’t been awful against the Padres:
That total of 15.52 fantasy points may not get it done at Cueto’s price tag, but these pitchers do have an Upside Rating of 18 percent in these situations; Cueto is a fine contrarian play in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Fastballs
Gio Gonzalez: He has a poor matchup against the Reds, who are currently implied for 4.7 runs, but he’s been excellent of late, posting a ridiculous +7.95 FanDuel Plus/Minus with an 80 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games. He’s projected for zero to one percent ownership in GPPs.
Nick Pivetta: He’s in a boom-or-bust matchup against the Brewers, who rank sixth in the league with a .331 team wOBA but also fourth with a 25.1 percent strikeout rate. He’s been a fairly boom-or-bust pitcher of late:
His 7.8 K Prediction is tied for second in the slate, and while he has a brutal 5.4 opponent implied run total, he is just $7,300 on FanDuel and projected for two to four percent ownership.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. J.J. Calle discussed the Mariners, Brewers, and Mets in today’s MLB Pro Model Stacks; I’ll avoid them and move to another highly-rated team:
There is a 34 percent chance of precipitation, which could keep the ownership levels down for the Orioles, who are currently implied for 5.0 runs. They face Cubs reliever-turned-starter Mike Montgomery, who has been solid this year but struggled in his last start, allowing seven earned runs across just 2.1 innings. His Statcast data is a big reason the Orioles rate so highly in the Bales Model today: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 222 feet and an exit velocity of 91 miles per hour.
We’ve recently added tools for FantasyDraft in Models, and I have a piece on FantasyDraft scoring, rosters, and strategy. They allow six batters in a stack, so let’s take a look at a highly-rated group for the main slate:
The Nationals have a powerful offense, ranking second in the league with a .343 team wOBA; they’re implied for a hefty 5.4 runs tonight. That said, they’re really expensive: This 1-6 stack costs over half of the total $100,000 salary cap on FantasyDraft. They’re probably worth it, however, especially against Reds righty Tim Adleman, whose 1.957 past-year HR/9 allowed is the second-worst mark in the slate. Bryce Harper is on the positive side of his splits today against a righty: Over the last year, he’s posted a .389 wOBA and .238 ISO against them. Every batter from this stack has averaged at least a 91 MPH exit velocity over the last two weeks.
Batters
Eric Thames was red-hot to start the year but has certainly cooled down over the summer. That said, the power is still there: He owns a .411 wOBA and .325 ISO against right-handed pitchers. Further, he could be heating up a bit: Over the last two weeks, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 285 feet, an exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 62 percent, and a hard hit rate of 50 percent. Granted, the batted ball data for hitters is a smaller sample than usual because of the All-Star break, but those numbers — even for just a handful of games — are noteworthy.
We haven’t discussed the Houston Astros, mostly because they’re boringly excellent almost every night. They’re currently implied for a ho-hum 5.1 runs against Twins righty Jose Berrios, who has allowed 24 hits over the last three games. The Astros rank first by a freaking mile with a .361 team wOBA, and they’re always in play for double-digit runs. They’re expensive but definitely worth pursuing in GPPs. George Springer is the highest-rated Houston batter in the Bales DraftKings Model; he’s averaged a +5.64 Plus/Minus with a 60 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games and has even more ridiculous Statcast data. Over those same 10 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 250 feet, an exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 54 percent.
And don’t forget about his teammate Josh Reddick, who is projected to bat second and leads all batters in the slate with an average of 16.6 DraftKings points per game over the last month. His Statcast data is just as good, and he’s been a very consistent cash-game option:
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
