The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday provides a 15-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Six pitchers cost more than $9,000 on DraftKings, and five pitchers are priced above $9,000 on FanDuel. The three most-expensive pitchers on both sites are the same; Lance McCullers and Johnny Cueto replace Gerrit Cole, Ervin Santana, and Jason Vargas on FanDuel in the $9,000 tier:
Jacob deGrom costs all-time highs of $12,500 on DraftKings and $12,100 on FanDuel (per our Trends tool). He’s pitching at Citi Field, where he’s averaged 41.73 FanDuel points with 22.0 percent guaranteed prize pool (GPP) ownership and 23.75 DraftKings points with 37.5 GPP ownership, and he’s facing a Phillies team with the second-lowest implied run total today at 3.3. The Mets lead all teams with -250 moneyline odds, and over his last three starts, deGrom has pitched 25 innings, allowed two total runs, and averaged 31.11 DraftKings points. Additionally, the Phillies have recorded the second-fewest runs and home runs this season.
deGrom is in rare company based on the Mets’ moneyline, Phillies’ implied run total, and his K Prediction, which is currently the fourth-highest mark of the day. Pitchers priced above $10,000 on FanDuel with similar data points have accumulated a stout FanDuel Plus/Minus:
In the three times deGrom has historically matched this trend, he has averaged just 19.67 FanDuel points; that’s ominous, but it is an extremely small sample. When he faced the Phillies in April, he achieved 58 percent DraftKings GPP ownership and 26.3 percent FanDuel GPP ownership while entering the game with similarly impressive Statcast data compared to today’s numbers. In that road game, he provided 10.7 DraftKings points — another small yet concerning outcome.
There are plenty of pitching alternatives this evening, potentially reducing deGrom to a GPP pivot due to his inflated salaries. Additionally, the Phillies-Mets contest has rain in the forecast, which could further limit his appeal to tournaments.
Pro Subscribers can review deGrom’s previous GPP ownership rates on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Alex Wood ranks in the top-three in salary, K Prediction, opponent implied run total, and moneyline odds. He also possesses the best recent Statcast data, and he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in nine straight starts:
His progression has culminated in career-high salaries of $11,700 on DraftKings and $10,500 on FanDuel.
Wood qualifies for the same trend as deGrom, and he even gets the more appealing matchup at a cheaper cost. The Padres have been the worst offense in baseball this season, ranking last in runs, second-to-last in wOBA, and first in strikeout rate and soft contact. Left-handed pitchers have been a near-lock in cash games when facing the Padres, averaging a league-best +4.99 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 77.3 percent Consistency Rating in 22 instances.
Among pitchers with at least 60.0 innings pitched this season, Woods ranks fifth with a 10.83 SO/9 rate, first with a 0.29 HR/9 rate, and second with a 66.2 percent ground ball rate. He has all the peripherals that translate well in all formats, and he gets a slight park upgrade pitching in Petco Park. Pitchers with a similar K Prediction and Park Factor have averaged a +4.99 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Robbie Ray failed to meet salary-based expectations in his last two starts, both of which were against the Phillies and accompanied by salaries in excess of $12,000 on DraftKings. His salary has declined to $10,300 tonight, and he’s facing a Rockies team with the eighth-highest strikeout rate and third-lowest walk and fly ball rates against left-handed pitchers. Ray has walked four hitters in three consecutive games, and he failed to strike out at least 10 hitters in the two most recent outings. Even though he was unsuccessful against the Phillies, his -89 DraftKings Recent Batted Ball Luck mark implies he was extremely lucky to escape with 10.8 and 17.65 DraftKings points in consecutive starts.
Ray leads all pitchers with a 9.9 K Prediction, and the Rockies’ high strikeout and low walk rates against lefties should help his cause. When Ray faced the Rockies at Coors Field in April, he had the same exact K Prediction and recorded 42.0 FanDuel points and 22.2 DraftKings points. Although he’s been much more successful on the road, he’s in a prime position for GPPs based on K Prediction alone. Pitchers with a similar mark have averaged a +5.02 DraftKings Plus/Minus and a +8.77 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Value
Lance McCullers will make his second start since coming off the disabled list. Even though he was limited to 76 pitches in the previous outing, McCullers struck out eight hitters and recorded 26.85 DraftKings points in 5.0 innings. McCullers already faced the Yankees this season, and he held them scoreless in 6.0 innings. McCullers has the third-highest K Prediction and third-lowest opponent implied run total, and his salary has descended to an affordable $8,800 on DraftKings. The Yankees game last night was delayed three hours, pushing back their arrival in Houston. Should Yankees manager Joe Girardi decide to rest a few of his everyday hitters following the late night, McCullers will likely become the immediate top play in cash games. He currently leads all pitchers with nine DraftKings and FanDuel Pro Trends, and he’s historically averaged a +7.75 DraftKings Plus/Minus with an 88.5 percent Consistency Rating on 34.3 percent GPP ownership at Minute Maid Park.
Jacob Faria is facing a projected Orioles lineup with the second-highest SO/AB rate and third-lowest wOBA over the past 12 months. He had six strikeouts in 6.0 innings against them last Saturday but allowed three runs and almost failed to provide value for the first time in three starts. The Orioles were implied to score 3.9 runs last week, and they are now implied to score 5.3 runs. Faria has pitched at least 6.0 innings in all four career starts, but due to the Orioles’ high implied total, he’ll carry too much risk to roster in cash games. That said, his 10.357 SO/9 rate and ability to pitch deep into games can be leveraged in GPPs.
Fastballs
Michael Foltynewicz: In four combined starts against the Brewers and Phillies, two teams that rank in the top-six in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, Foltynewicz averaged 24.96 DraftKings points and handily exceeded salary-based expectations each outing. The Athletics have the second-highest strikeout rate against righties, and Foltynewicz has the fifth-highest K Prediction.
Mike Montgomery: He has the only recent Statcast data comparable to Wood’s, and his 72 percent recent ground ball rate has helped him record consecutive outings of zero earned runs and 6.0 innings pitched. Left-handed pitchers have recorded the fifth-highest DraftKings Consistency Rating against the Reds this season, and the Reds have the sixth-highest ground ball rate against lefties.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Many of the top stacks have been covered by Matthew Freedman in today’s MLB Pro Model Stacks article. The Blue Jays presently have the second-highest rated DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model, just behind the Rays and ahead of the Tigers and Mets:
The Blue Jays are presently implied to score 5.4 runs — the second-highest mark of the day — and their 82 Team Value Rating ranks fourth. That said, the Blue Jays have disappointed in similar spots: They’ve averaged a -0.70 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 28.9 percent Consistency Rating when implied between 5.0 and 6.0 runs at home this season. Jose Bautista is presently the highest-rated hitter in the model, and since moving to the leadoff spot he’s averaged 10.13 DraftKings points. Kendrys Morales leads the stack with a 38-foot recent distance positive differential, but he’s failed to exceed salary-based expectations in seven straight games. His +47 Recent Batted Ball Luck mark implies he’s been unlucky, and the Blue Jays are facing a pitcher in Doug Fister with the highest WHIP and fifth-lowest strikeout rate over the past 12 months; that’s a welcome sign for Morales, who has struck out in 11 of his last 16 at-bats.
The top-rated stacks in the Bales Model belong to the Tigers, Rays, and Mets. This Cardinals stack is of similar cost, and given their lower 4.8 implied run total, they could see low ownership in GPPs.
Tommy Pham and Yadier Molina did not start yesterday, and Matt Carpenter is the only hitter in the stack with a recent negative batted ball distance differential and Bargain Rating below 43 percent. The Cardinals are presently implied to score 4.8 runs on a slate where nine teams are currently implied to score at least 5.0 runs, and there’s currently a 23 percent chance of precipitation at game time, which could further lead to depressed ownership. Nationals pitcher Tanner Roark has allowed at least six runs in each of his last three starts and at least one home run in five straight starts. Stacking the Cardinals is a perfectly acceptable contrarian play in GPPs.
Batters
Elvis Andrus and Keon Broxton rank in the top-12 in SB/G among hitters projected to play today. Andrus faces Mike Pelfrey, who has allowed 13 stolen bases this season; Broxton opposes Edinson Volquez, who has allowed 11 stolen bases this year. Both speedsters offer higher Bargain Ratings on FanDuel, and Broxton ranks eighth among outfielders with a 243-foot recent batted ball distance. Should the rain hold off in Chicago, Andrus will offer solid cash-game value, and Broxton’s ability to both go deep and swipe a bag translates perfectly for GPPs.
Curtis Granderson and Mallex Smith are two projected leadoff hitters and lead all hitters on the slate with a DraftKings 68 percent Consistency Rating over the past month. Granderson has provided double the Upside percentage compared to Smith, although he costs $500 more than the Rays outfielder. Smith is facing a pitcher with the second-highest WHIP, and Granderson opposes the pitcher with the lowest SO/9 rate. Chris Tillman faced the Rays in his most recent start, and he allowed four runs in 4.1 innings — extending a stretch of games in which he’s allowed at least four runs. Both of their teams are presently implied to score at least 5.3 runs, but the weather in New York is concerning enough to focus on Granderson more in GPPs while increasing exposure to Smith in cash games.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
