The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a 14-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are five pitchers today above $9,000 on FanDuel, including three super studs:
This slate is loaded: If you include Detroit righty Michael Fulmer as well, these guys (minus Yu Darvish) are four of the top-10 pitchers in 2017 in Wins Above Replacement (WAR).
Clayton Kershaw is seemingly the chalk in every slate he’s in, and that will likely be the case again tonight, despite the multitude of other options. The biggest reason is his Vegas data: He faces the Brewers, whose implied total of 3.0 runs is 0.6 runs lower than any other team’s mark in the slate. Further, Kershaw is the largest moneyline favorite by quite a bit at -218, which suggests he’s a safe play. Per the MLB Trends tool, pitchers with similar Vegas data have historically averaged 40.81 FanDuel points and a +7.08 Plus/Minus.
For reference, there are 25,574 starting pitcher performances since 2012 in our database. That means the 302-game sample above represents just 1.18 percent of the total count: Kershaw is in a rare spot. He’s been in similar games five times since 2012, and he’s absolutely smashed value in those instances, averaging 64.4 fantasy points with a perfect Consistency Rating:
And we haven’t even discussed Kershaw’s strikeout upside today. The Brewers rank fourth in the league this season with a 24.6 strikeout rate, and that number is even higher — 25.4 percent — against left-handed pitchers. Kershaw has a slate-high 9.1 K Prediction and is coming off a poor game in which he allowed 11 hits and four earned runs to the Chicago Cubs across 4.1 innings. The Brewers could be in trouble today.
Is there any reason to roster a pitcher other than Kershaw? If we push aside the ownership argument for a moment, the answer is probably not in a normal slate. But, again, this slate is loaded. Stephen Strasburg has done this over his last two games:
That is among the best two-game performances you’ll see, and his Statcast data over that time is predictably awesome: He’s allowed a recent batted ball distance of 196 feet, exit velocity of 84 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 17 percent. His Vegas data compared to Kershaw’s isn’t quite as good — he’s only a -132 favorite and the Athletics are implied for 3.6 runs — but it’s good enough to warrant a debate between the two. The argument for Stras is that he has great current form and immense strikeout upside: He’s facing an Oakland team that ranks second this season with a 25.3 percent K rate. There have been four pitchers this year with K Predictions of 7.5-plus (he’s at 8.6) against the Athletics. Here’s how they performed:
Kershaw will be chalky, but Strasburg is worthy of extremely high ownership as well. For more on Strasburg, see Joe Holka’s Three Key MLB Players.
Values
Michael Pineda has been quietly solid this season, posting a +7.43 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 80 percent Consistency mark over his first 10 starts. He’s in a tough spot today against a revitalized Blue Jays offense that is playing at home and implied for 4.2 runs. That said, there’s a reason to believe Pineda can shut them down today: His elite Statcast data. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 185 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 29 percent, and a hard hit rate of 29 percent. Pineda always has strikeout upside — in the slate only Straburg and Darvish have higher past-year SO/9 marks — and Pineda owns a respectable 7.5 K Prediction today. Again, the matchup isn’t great, but Pineda has a salary discount and will also likely have an ownership discount. He’s just $8,600 on DraftKings and $8,500 on FanDuel, where he’s currently projected for just five to eight percent ownership.
Deeper in the bargain bin, Rockies righty German Marquez has gone for at least 15 DraftKings points in each of his last four games. His two best games this season — 35.6 points on 5/10 and 25.3 points on 4/30 — came in ridiculously hard situations at Coors Field against the Cubs and at Chase Field against the Diamondbacks. Today’s affair looks easier: He’s on the road at Petco Park, a great pitcher’s venue, and facing a Padres team that ranks 29th this season with a .286 team wOBA. They’re also prone to striking out, as evidenced by their 24.7 percent strikeout rate — the third-highest mark in the league. The Padres have been the most generous team to opposing pitchers in terms of DraftKings Plus/Minus (+3.80) and Consistency Rating (68 percent):
Marquez has a 6.6 K Prediction today and is a worthy SP2 candidate in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at just $7,200.
Fastballs
Dallas Keuchel: He’s been one of the best pitchers in MLB this season, and he barely got a mention in the “Studs” section because of how loaded today is. He’s averaged a +7.51 DraftKings Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, allowing a low 176-foot batted ball distance in his last start. Given the two options above him in price today, his matchup against Darvish, and the poor weather in Texas, he should have minuscule ownership levels.
Michael Fulmer: He’s much cheaper on DraftKings today, where his low $8,000 salary comes with a 92 percent Bargain Rating. He also boasts a nice matchup against the White Sox and elite recent Statcast data: In his last two starts, he’s allowed an exit velocity of 87 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 11 percent.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per player ratings in the Bales Model) currently belongs to the Atlanta Braves. Since Justin Bailey covered them in today’s MLB Pro Model Stacks, let’s pivot to one he didn’t cover:
The Cleveland Indians are currently implied for 4.6 runs — the sixth-highest mark in the main slate — which means they should likely have reasonable ownership levels. They’re in a tough park tonight in Kansas City, but they’re also facing lefty Jason Vargas, who has come back to earth after a scorching start to the season. He’s allowed four home runs over his last three games, and he’s second only to Reds righty Bronson Arroyo with a recent fly ball rate of 56 percent. Jason Kipnis is projected to bat leadoff (per the MLB Lineups page) and has averaged a 45 percent fly ball rate over his last 13 outings.
On FanDuel, one of the top-rated four-man stacks belongs to the Detroit Tigers:
They face White Sox lefty Derek Holland, who has actually been excellent of late, going for 43.0 and 49.0 FanDuel points in his last two starts, the most recent of which came against these very Tigers. That said, Vegas bettors seem to believe in Detroit today, as the Tigers (tied with the Reds) are currently implied for a slate-high 5.2 runs. They opened at 4.8 runs, so they’ve had quite a bit of positive line movement. Because of the movement, they own the second-best Team Value Rating (TVR) on FanDuel at 86. J.D. Martinez continues to post absurd Statcast data: Over his last 13 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 255 feet, an exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 48 percent, and a hard hit rate of 55 percent.
Batters
Steven Souza is right up there with Martinez with the best Statcast data in the slate. Over his last 11 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 237 feet, an exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 50 percent. He’s in a pitcher’s park in Seattle today, but the Rays, who rank fifth in the league this season with a .185 team ISO, are still implied for 4.5 runs. Souza is on the positive side of his splits against a righty: He owns a .201 ISO and .103 ISO differential in the past year against them. He faces Christian Bergman, who owns the second-highest HR/9 mark in the slate behind — you guessed it — Arroyo with his awful 3.164. Souza, along with many of his Rays teammates, is currently projected for just two to four percent ownership on both sites.
I wasn’t going to talk about the Braves since Justin covered them, but let’s just do it. Arroyo is 40 years old and, prior to this season, hadn’t pitched since 2014 because of Tommy John surgery and subsequent injuries since then. He was fine in 2014, but he’s been absolutely miserable this season, posting a 1.465 WHIP and 3.164 HR/9 rate. Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 257 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 60 percent. During that time — just 10.1 innings — he’s allowed seven home runs. When we say that guys like Brandon Phillips are in a great spot today, this is why. Batters against Arroyo are like NFL players in the Superdome, batters at Coors Field, and point guards against the Nuggets — fantasy points are abundant.
And before I go, I’ll just drop this here:
Carlos Correa leads all batters with 16.4 FanDuel points per game over the last month, he’s gotten at least two hits in six of his last seven games, and he’s currently projected for two to four percent ownership. That sounds good.
Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
