The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a 15-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are five pitchers today above $9,000 on FanDuel; two of them in Alex Wood and Jake Arrieta oppose each other.
Arrieta is the only underdog of the group, but it is Max Scherzer who really stands out in terms of his Vegas data. He has the lowest opponent implied run total of the slate at 2.9, and he faces a terrible Padres offense that ranks 28th this season with a .288 team wOBA. Their projected lineup has a past-year .255 wOBA against right-handed pitchers. They’re awful. As you might expect, Scherzer is a massive favorite at -240; according to our MLB Trends tool, pitchers with similar moneylines have historically been very valuable:
Scherzer is incredibly safe today and should easily be the highest-owned pitcher by a mile in cash games. But he also has massive upside as well: The Padres rank third this season with a high 23.8 percent strikeout rate, and Scherzer already owns the best SO/9 rate of the slate at 11.301. As a result of these data points, Scherzer has a huge 9.9 K Prediction, which is 1.7 strikeouts higher than any other pitcher’s mark. There have been only 11 pitchers since 2012 — out of 25,378 total pitchers — with similar moneyline and K Prediction ranges. They’ve absolutely smashed, averaging 50.18 FanDuel points:
Those pitchers have been Scherzer (four times), Clayton Kershaw (four times), Jose Fernandez (once), Stephen Strasburg (once), and Yu Darvish (once). I don’t want to get too dramatic here, but if you put all pitchers and their respective data points before a game into a single Player Model, I would guess that Scherzer today would have the highest rating of them all. Put more simply: This is the best pitching prospect game of the year.
Since this article is only 300-400 words in at this point, I’ll continue with some other pitchers. Wood faces the defending champion Cubs, but Vegas seems to believe in him: Chicago is currently implied for just 3.6 runs, and Wood is a -127 moneyline favorite. He’s been incredible lately, averaging a +10.62 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 71 percent Consistency Rating in his first seven starts of the year:
The downside with Wood has been his pitch count, although that has been creeping up a bit of late; he got 96 pitches in his last game, in which he allowed six hits and zero runs across 7.1 innings. I would argue that since Scherzer is in this slate and is already the cash-game option, the rest of the pitchers’ median outcomes matter very little. Thus, Wood’s pitch count — if it even still exists — is irrelevant; we’re concerned solely with his upside. Of all the starting pitchers, Wood probably has the best chance to outscore Scherzer; his 11.206 SO/9 rate is second in the slate, and his 7.4 K Prediction is fourth. He’s gone for double-digit strikeouts in two of his last three affairs, and he should be significantly lower-owned than Scherzer today.
Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Values
Mike Clevinger is facing a Royals team that is somehow even worse than the Padres in terms of team wOBA this year; they rank 29th with a .285 mark. They’re currently implied for just 3.7 runs, and Clevinger is a sizable -171 favorite. The Indians righty is coming off a gem, going for 33.35 DraftKings points at Houston thanks to eight strikeouts and just two hits allowed across seven innings. His Statcast data matches that production: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 172 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 26 percent, and a hard hit rate of 17 percent. Clevinger has a respectable 6.3 K Prediction today, and his 9.441 SO/9 rate shows upside beyond that. But most importantly Clevinger is fairly priced on both sites at $8,000 on DraftKings and $7,800 on FanDuel; he’s a fine SP2 option to pair with Scherzer.
If you’re making the case for a pitcher based on Statcast data, Clevinger is really solid, but Aaron Nola, who is $300 cheaper on DraftKings and $300 more expensive on FanDuel, is even better. He’s pitched one game since coming off the DL with a muscle strain in his back, and he was solid in that affair, allowing four hits and one run across seven innings pitched. That last data point is perhaps the most important one: He was given seven innings and 92 pitches in his return, which suggests he’s healthy moving forward. Anyway, in that contest he allowed a batted ball distance of 151 feet, exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, fly ball rate of 16 percent, and hard hit rate of 22 percent. It is a small sample — batters made contact on only 19 of his pitches — but that it is a sample of seven innings is encouraging. He faces a Reds team today currently implied for 3.7 runs.
Fastballs
Dan Straily: He’s in a stellar pitcher’s park at home in Miami, and he’s facing an Angels team whose projected lineup owns the third-lowest team wOBA in the slate and is currently implied for just 3.8 runs. He’s been solid lately, allowing an exit velocity of 87 miles per hour over his last two starts.
Jacob deGrom: He got scratched last night because of the weather but now gets to pitch in one of the best pitcher’s parks in the league in Pittsburgh. He faces a Pirates squad currently implied for just 3.4 runs — the second-lowest mark in the slate — and his 7.2 K Prediction is a top-five mark. He’s a much better value today on FanDuel, where his $11,000 salary comes with an 87 percent Bargain Rating.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Many of the top stacks in the Bales Model belong to the St. Louis Cardinals, who are on the road at Coors Field today and currently implied for a slate-high 5.5 runs. Since Justin Bailey discussed them in today’s MLB Pro Models Stacks, let’s pivot to some other stacks he didn’t mention:
The Blue Jays are at home and the roof should be open, so the hitting environment should be beneficial. More importantly, they face Rangers righty A.J. Griffin, who ranks dead last in the slate with a massive 2.803 HR/9 allowed over the past year. He’s allowed a ridiculous SEVEN home runs over his last two starts — 8.1 innings — against the Tigers and Athletics. His Statcast data is laughably bad: Over that time frame, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 243 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 68 percent. Kendrys Morales has a .231 past-year ISO against righties and just homered in his last game.
On FanDuel, a stack of the Detroit Tigers could actually be somewhat contrarian:
That might seem ridiculous considering they’re currently implied for 5.0 runs, but note that there are six teams with higher totals, and this game has some risky weather; there’s a 76 percent chance of precipitation. For those reasons, it could be worth it to roster the Tigers in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), as they certainly have upside if the game is played: They face White Sox righty Tyler Danish, who is 22 years old and has pitched 1.2 innings in his career — all last season across three appearances. The Tigers have been smashing the ball lately, especially catcher Alex Avila, who owns a 276-foot batted ball distance, 100 mph exit velocity, and 61 percent hard hit rate over his last eight games.
Batters
Chris Davis has been a little down in terms of fantasy production . . .
. . . but his Statcast data is elite: Over his last 11 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 268 feet, an exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 52 percent. The roof looks like it will be closed in Houston tonight, so it won’t be extra-hot hitting weather, but Davis owns a .345 wOBA and .272 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past year. He faces Joe Musgrove, who got canned last time out, allowing eight hits and seven runs in three innings.
Over the last month, Mike Trout leads all batters with an average of 19.4 FanDuel points per game. He’s averaged a 59 percent Consistency mark and a 22 percent Upside mark during that time period. Even his ‘bad’ games aren’t all that bad:
He’s in a brutal park for hitters in Miami, but that just means that he could be low-owned, especially with a Coors Field game, high run totals everywhere, and his deserved price tags of $5,500 on DraftKings and $4,900 on FanDuel. Frankly, with the exception of Coors Field, parks matter little for a player of Trout’s caliber:
The Yankees are in an intriguing spot tonight. There are seven teams currently implied for five-plus runs: The Tigers (versus a young pitcher), Rockies (Coors), Blue Jays (Griffin), Red Sox (always above 5.0 it seems), Cardinals (Coors), and Yankees. It’s hard to determine how ownership will be distributed among these teams, but it’s likely that Coors will take a big chunk and then it’ll be fairly distributed among the rest. Aaron Judge continues to crush the ball of late, averaging a 230-foot batted ball distance, 95 mph exit velocity, and 46 percent hard hit rate over his last 12 games.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
