The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a 14-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are three pitchers today above $9,000 on FanDuel, headlined by Chris Sale at $13,000 on DraftKings and $12,000 on FanDuel:
Sale has arguably been the league’s best pitcher in 2017; his 2.5 WAR is first by a mile.
His stellar play has also come with excellent fantasy production: He has averaged a ridiculous +17.73 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 100 percent Consistency Rating over his eight starts. He should be sufficiently chalky again today, as he’s taking on an Athletics squad that ranks 22nd this season with a .314 team wOBA and is currently implied for a slate-low 2.9 runs. He does have some mildly concerning Statcast data — he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 251 feet and an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour over his last two games — but he doesn’t allow many batted balls in the first place. Sale has posted double-digit strikeouts in each of his last seven starts, and his 8.6 K Prediction is the second-highest mark today.
Luis Severino struggled in his most recent start, allowing six hits, three walks, and three runs in just 2.1 innings pitched. Yankees manager Joe Girardi pulled him early but said that he didn’t think Severino pitched poorly and thought that he induced a lot of ground balls that unfortunately got through. His Statcast data confirms that: Over his last two starts, he’s induced ground balls 61 percent of the time, allowing a batted ball distance of 174 feet and a fly ball rate of just 11 percent. He’ll try to get back on track today in a boom-or-bust matchup; he faces the Rays, who rank eighth in the league with a .177 team ISO but first (or ‘last’) by quite a bit with a 27.0 percent strikeout rate. Severino has a high 8.4 K Prediction today and gets the benefit of being in a pitcher’s park in Tampa Bay.
Values
The only guy with a higher K Prediction than Sale is Alex Wood, who has a massive 9.9 mark against the Miami Marlins. He’s always a tough pitcher to analyze, as he’s on a pitch count around 90. He went 88 pitches in each of his last two starts, which isn’t ideal in fantasy, but here were his results:
Fantasy points per pitch isn’t a real stat, but I would guess that Wood would rank highly in the stat if it were. In his last start he put up 58.0 points at Coors Field, allowing just five hits and a walk in his 88 pitches while striking out 10. His Statcast data is ridiculous: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 166 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of five percent, and a hard hit rate of 15 percent. There’s been essentially two outcomes when Wood has faced a batter: A strikeout or a weak ground ball. That’s a recipe for fantasy success, but the question remains: Can he put up a stellar performance again on only 90 pitches?
It should be noted that paying for pitching on DraftKings will cost you much more than it will on FanDuel today. Out of the 28 pitchers, only five of them — the guys between $4,300 and $5,100 — have Bargain Ratings higher than 75 percent. There are many viable FanDuel pitchers with high Bargain Ratings; Charlie Morton stands out with a solid $8,300 price tag and 70 percent Bargain Rating. He has a tough matchup against Cleveland, but he’s also been excellent of late. He struck out 10 Yankees in his last start, and his Statcast data is solid: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 182 feet, an exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 22 percent, and a hard hit rate of 22 percent. Again, he has a tough matchup against a solid Indians offense that’s implied for 4.0 runs, but that’s actually not a disqualifer; only three pitchers have opponent run totals below 3.8: Sale, Wood, and Jacob deGrom. K Prediction remains important, and Morton’s 7.3 is the fifth-highest mark of the slate.
Fastballs
Nate Karns: He has a top-five K Prediction (8.0), and he gets a Twins team that is currently implied for 4.0 runs but put up only three total in two games yesterday. He’s gone for double-digit strikeouts in each of his last two starts.
Jacob deGrom: He’s the stud we didn’t discuss, and his odd price point — he’s $2,300 more than Severino on DraftKings and $1,200 more on FanDuel — could cause him to be low-owned. He faces an Angels team implied for just 3.4 runs.
Pro Subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated stack in the Bales Model currently belongs to the Houston Astros. Since Justin Bailey wrote about them in today’s MLB Pro Model Stacks, let’s pivot to the No. 2 stack:
The St. Louis Cardinals face Giants lefty Matt Moore, who put up a solid game last outing with just one earned run across 7.1 innings pitched, but he likely got a little lucky as he allowed eight hits. Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 218 feet, an exit velocity of 91 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 46 percent. But really this stack is about the Cardinals. They have been absolutely smashing the ball lately, as evidenced by the Statcast data of their top hitters (per our MLB Lineups page):
Of course, this games has a 51 percent chance of precipitation so watch out for that. In a contrarian way, that could allow access to this stack at reduced ownership.
On FanDuel, a 1-2-3-4 straight stack of the New York Mets is an intriguing one:
They’re currently implied for just 4.1 runs — the 15th-highest mark in the slate — but they could certainly outperform that mark. They face Angels righty Ricky Nolasco, who has been lucky over his last couple of games. He has brutal Statcast data: Over his last two, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 231 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 41 percent. Further, the Mets have some hot bats, especially Jay Bruce, who is on the beneficial side of his splits today against a righty. He’s been quite unlucky of late, averaging a -3.78 FanDuel Plus/Minus despite averaging a batted ball distance of 245 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 53 percent over his last 11.
Batters
Jered Weaver has the second-highest HR/9 mark in the slate at 2.163 and has the unfortunate task of facing the hot bat of Paul Goldschmidt. The Arizona first baseman has scored double-digit FanDuel points in each of his last six games, and his Statcast data suggests it’s not a fluke: Over his last 13 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 269 feet, an exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 47 percent, and a hard hit rate of 61 percent. Those are ridiculous marks, and it’s possible that Goldy will even be underowned considering he’s away from Chase Field tonight. He’s currently projected for just five to eight percent ownership on both sites.
Mike Trout is one of the quietest superstars in professional sports, but don’t let that make you forget about him. Since returning from the DL seven games ago, he’s done this:
He has averaged 14.6 DraftKings points per game over the last month, which is the second-highest mark among all batters today behind J.D. Martinez‘s 18.8. Trout has a tough matchup against deGrom, but let’s be honest: Trout can dominate any matchup. Over his last eight games, he’s averaged a fly ball rate of 58 percent.
The best Park Factor today belongs to lefties in Baltimore. That includes Chris Davis (on the correct side of his splits and with five home runs over his last five games) and Kendrys Morales (currently projected to bat third for a Toronto team that is implied for 4.4 runs). This game does have potential thunderstorms that could affect it, but that could also depress ownership. Both Davis and Morales have excellent Statcast data recently, averaging batted ball distances of 255 and 245 feet. The game total moved up a half run in the morning, and this could be a sneaky game to stack if it plays.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
