The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a 15-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Although Clayton Kershaw is in today’s massive slate, there are still no pitchers above $10,000 on FanDuel:
Kershaw is so cheap because, of course, he’s at Coors Field. This game has a much lower Vegas total at 9.0 runs than usual, and the Rockies are implied for just 4.0 runs, but this is still Coors Field. When using the Trends tool I normally try to research with large samples, but Kershaw is such a pitching unicorn that it probably makes sense to look at his past Coors Field performances in isolation:
Since 2012, Kershaw has played at Coors nine times; in those games, he’s averaged 37.67 FanDuel points and a -0.55 Plus/Minus on a poor 44.4 percent Consistency Rating. That said, looking at his past Plus/Minus probably isn’t too useful today, since that gives in indication of his viability in cash games — and it’s likely not a positive expected value move to roster a pitcher at Coors Field in cash games, even if that pitcher is Kershaw. Instead, we’re concerned with Kershaw’s ceiling. Is it still intact at Coors? It seems to be:
Kershaw’s average probability of scoring XX number of fantasy points is almost certainly lower at Coors Field, and his floor is likely a bit lower, but his ceiling is not. Further, he’ll likely have low(er) ownership — and he’s just $9,800 on FanDuel.
The pricing for the top pitchers is quite different across sites, as evidenced by Johnny Cueto and Clayton Kershaw‘s zero and eight percent Bargain Ratings on DraftKings. At $12,600 and $11,300, they’re priced way up on DraftKings. Lance McCullers is also cheaper on FanDuel, where his $8,800 salary comes with a 77 percent Bargain Rating: He’s one of the top pitchers on both sites in the Bales Model.
That might be a surprise considering he’s on the road against the Yankees, who rank second in the league this season with a .353 team wOBA. They’re implied for 3.9 runs today, and McCullers is only a small -116 moneyline favorite going against solid rookie Jordan Montgomery. So why is McCullers rated so highly? Well, because he’s been really good this year, averaging a +6.32 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 71 percent Consistency Rating through seven starts, and his Statcast data is even better. Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 181 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 19 percent, and a hard hit rate of 19 percent. McCullers leads all pitchers today with a 7.7 K Prediction, and his teammate Dallas Keuchel — not a high K guy — made nine batters whiff last night en route to 31.9-point DraftKings performance in six innings pitched. The matchup isn’t great, but McCullers is cheap and in good form and has upside.
Values
Vegas totals are quite high today: Only three of the 30 starting pitchers have opponent run totals below 3.9 — Cueto, Rick Porcello, and Tanner Roark. The latter could deal with some rain, so definitely be sure to monitor that situation, but he’s in a nice spot if the game plays. Roark has been solid lately, exceeding salary-based expectations on FanDuel in each of his last four starts, going for 37.0 fantasy points in his last game against these very Phillies. His recent batted ball data is just as good: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a distance of 179 feet, an exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 27 percent. His 6.1 K Prediction isn’t high, but it’s actually the seventh-highest mark in this ugly slate. Pitchers with similar marks have been maybe a little unexciting but still productive:
Danny Duffy has been poor of late, missing value in each of his last three games and allowing 13 runs in that time frame. Despite owning a decent (for this slate at least) 8.873 SO/9 rate over the past year, he hasn’t had more than six strikeouts since his opening game against the Twins; he’s struck out seven batters in his last three games. That said, his Statcast data is encouraging: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 190 feet, an exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 34 percent. He’s induced ground balls at a 53 percent clip, which is 14 percentage points higher than his 12-month mark. He’s third among all pitchers today with a 68 Recent Batted Ball Luck Score, which further suggests he’s been a bit unlucky of late. He faces a Baltimore team that has a below-average .159 ISO against left-handed pitching: Five of the top-seven projected batters today have negative splits against lefties.
Fastballs
Joe Biagini: He had a pitch count around 50 last game and finished with 15.8 DraftKings points on 4.0 innings pitched; his pitch count is reportedly increasing to the 70s, which still limits his upside, but he’s a pitcher worth monitoring.
Rick Porcello: He’s not a high-upside play — he’s had between 20 and 26 DraftKings points in each of his last four starts — but he does bring relative safety with an impressive 1.09 past-year WHIP; his 6.6 K Prediction is the fifth-highest mark today.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Although this slate does include a Coors Field game, the two highest-rated five-man DraftKings stacks in the Bales Model belong to the two Chase Field teams in Arizona and Pittsburgh. Justin Bailey covered the former in today’s MLB Pro Model Stacks, so let’s discuss the latter:
Let’s be honest: The Pirates aren’t very good. They’re 25th this season with a .294 team wOBA, and they sit last in the NL Central at 14-21. They’re even worse against lefties — their projected lineup has a .271 past-year wOBA against southpaws — and they face one in Patrick Corbin. Perhaps the only reason they’re currently implied for 4.4 runs is because they’re at Chase Field, which has been the second-best hitter’s park over the last three years. Batters have actually posted a higher Upside Rating there than at Coors:
Even batters in the bottom quartile of wOBA percentage have posted a +0.59 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 17 percent Upside Rating. I can understand fading the Pirates — again, they aren’t good — but batters at Coors and Chase have high ownership levels every night for a reason.
On FanDuel, the highest-rated four-man stack is another surprising team in the Los Angeles Angels:
They’re currently implied for 4.7 runs against Jordan Zimmermann, who has not been great lately. He has allowed a whopping 33 hits, 17 runs, and seven home runs over his last four starts. His Statcast data is pretty bad, too: Over his last two outings, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 249 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 50 percent, and a hard hit rate of 44 percent. Those marks are brutal. Like the Pirates, the Angels aren’t great — they rank 27th this season with a .289 team wOBA — but right now just about any team is in play against Zimmermann.
Batters
Predicting ownership will be a challenge tonight. Kershaw has already pitched once at Coors this year, and the ownership levels were somewhat surprising. Despite being in a big slate with lots of other studs, Kershaw was still the highest-owned pitcher, per our DFS Ownership Dashboard:
He disappointed in that game, scoring only 12.7 DraftKings points, which further adds to the difficulty of predicting his ownership tonight. He was only $10,000 then and is $11,300 now, although there are no Bumgarners or Darvishes in this slate. Because of Kershaw’s high ownership, the Coors batters were fairly low: Corey Seager, the highest-priced guy in that game, was owned in just 12.6 percent of lineups in the $3 Moonshot. Charlie Blackmon against Kershaw was in 1.56 percent of lineups.
On the other side of the matchup, the high-priced Dodgers bats are intriguing. Cody Bellinger will likely bat cleanup again (per our MLB Lineups page) and he continues to hit the ball well: He’s averaged a +7.21 DraftKings Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. Over his last 11, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 240 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 47 percent, and a hard hit rate of 42 percent. Either he or Kershaw will likely be underowned; who will it be?
I picked on Zimmermann above, but it’s not as if his opposing pitcher, Matt Shoemaker, has been much better. Over his last two games, Shoemaker has allowed a slate-worst 94 mile per hour exit velocity. It gets even worse: During that time, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 240 feet, a hard hit rate of 39 percent, and a whopping fly ball rate of 66 percent. He could be in trouble against a guy like Miguel Cabrera, who hasn’t been great lately but has solid Statcast data: Over his last seven, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 248 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 52 percent. This game has a low 8.5 Vegas total — the fourth-lowest total of the night — which means the batters should be very low-owned. This could be a sneaky game to stack in GPPs.
Miguel Sano hit one out last night: His recent exit velocity is unreal:
I mean, come on.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
