The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s daily fantasy slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a 15-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
For the first time in a while, there are quite a few studs available on the same slate. On FanDuel, there are five pitchers above $9,000:
Max Scherzer is pretty much always the chalk when he’s on a slate, and tonight should be no exception even with other studs available. Scherzer has been dominant to start 2017, scoring at least 45.0 FanDuel points in each of his first starts and averaging a +13.42 Plus/Minus over that time:
His Statcast data is impressive as well: Over the last two games, he’s allowed an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 15 percent. He’s allowed a 46 percent fly ball rate, sure, but that’s fairly normal: His past 12-month fly ball rate is 48 percent. He gets a nice matchup today against a Mets team that ranks 26th in the league with a .289 team wOBA and is currently implied for just 3.1 runs (per our Vegas dashboard). Finally, his massive 9.1 K Prediction is first on the slate by 0.7 strikeouts. Pitchers projected for nine-plus strikeouts have historically posted an +8.19 Plus/Minus on FanDuel, independent of any other filters. Add in an opponent run total filter of 3.3 and under and the Plus/Minus jumps to +9.09 with a 70.8 percent Consistency Rating. You get the picture: Scherzer checks every box tonight, and his ownership will likely reflect that.
No other ‘stud’ can compete with Scherzer in terms of his data points, be it matchup, K upside, or 2017 fantasy production. There is one guy, however, who does have superior Statcast data of late and hasn’t been too shabby this season either: Carlos Carrasco, who has gone for 33-plus FanDuel points in each of his first four starts, including a dominant 58-point start against the White Sox this past Saturday. His Statcast data is about as good as it gets: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 180 feet, an exit velocity of 83 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 16 percent. He’s induced ground balls at a 52 percent clip and has allowed fly balls on only 25 percent of batted balls. His opponent run total of 3.8 is 0.7 runs higher than Scherzer’s, and his K Prediction is 2.9 strikeouts lower, but Carrasco is in excellent form and could be lower-owned in guaranteed prize pools because of Scherzer. Given Carrasco’s slate-high -192 moneyline and Statcast data, one could make the argument that he’s the safest pitcher on the board.
Values
If you’re selecting a value pitcher, there are two paths you can take — favoring Vegas data or favoring strikeout upside. If the former, Kenta Maeda and Jeff Samardzija will likely stand out, as they have opponent run totals of 3.2 and 3.4. They were both awful in their most recent outings, posting FanDuel Plus/Minus values of -16.49 and -17.00, but Statcast suggests that Maeda’s form is much more troubling:
Samardzija’s last game was at Coors Field, whereas tonight he’s at AT&T Park, where he has a 93 Park Factor. Maeda hasn’t had easy situations either, however: His last three games have come against the Rockies and Diamondbacks (twice), and two of those were on the road at Coors Field and Chase Field. That said, 14 earned runs across 14 innings pitched is concerning no matter the park, especially when you pair that with his Statcast data. I’ll put this in a shocking yet true context using our new Recent Batted Ball Luck metric. Here’s the definition:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
Maeda has done this over his last four games . . .
. . . and his batted ball data suggests he has been lucky. Oof. It might be a night to load up on studs.
If you’re favoring strikeouts, guys like Robbie Ray and Drew Pomeranz will stand out, as their K Predictions of 8.4 and 7.5 rank second and fourth among all pitchers today. Ray is home at Chase Field against the Rockies, which is not an ideal situation, but Vegas isn’t too down on him: Colorado is currently implied for just 4.0 runs. He’s in fairly uncharted territory today on DraftKings, as his low $8,200 price tag is historically cheap for a pitcher projected for eight-plus strikeouts. There have been only 82 such instances over the past four seasons, and those pitchers have averaged a +3.73 Plus/Minus with a 64.6 percent Consistency Rating. Unfortunately, those pitchers have also been owned at a high 24.6 percent. Ray’s ownership almost certainly won’t be that high given the size of today’s slate and the number of studs and values — even if they’re potential traps like Maeda — but he also won’t fly under the radar.
Fastballs
Marcus Stroman: He’s the cheapest of the five ‘studs’ and has nice recent Statcast data, inducing ground balls at a high 61 percent clip over the last two games; he has a boom-or-bust matchup against the Rays, who rank 10th in team wOBA but also second in strikeout rate in 2017.
Lance Lynn: He has gone for 26-plus DraftKings points in each of his last two games, allowing a batted ball exit velocity of just 87 miles per hour over that time; Tyler Skaggs, Pomeranz, and Lynn are all under $8,000 on DraftKings and boast K Predictions above 7.0.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Coors Field will get the night off tonight, but Chase Field is still around. That said, the highest-rated five-man DraftKings stack (using player ratings in the Bales Model) belongs to the Detroit Tigers:
They have seen some early negative reverse line movement this morning, but their Team Value Rating (TVR) of 85 on DraftKings still sits at the top of the slate (per the Vegas dashboard):
The Tigers face White Sox righty Mike Pelfrey, who owns the worst past-year WHIP in the slate at 1.726. He allowed two earned runs and a homer in 4.1 innings in his only appearance last Saturday, and the Tigers could load up on him today. They’ve been absolutely mashing the ball lately: Tyler Collins, Nick Castellanos, Justin Upton, and Alex Avila all have recent hard hit rates of 48-plus percent. In FantasyLabs Co-Founder Jonathan Bales’ most recent MLB video, he mentioned that in large slates ownership levels on stacks are diffuse. That’s why, despite the fact that the Tigers are crushing the ball, cheap, and implied for 4.8 runs, they are projected for low ownership.
On FanDuel, the highest-rated four-man stack (excluding Detroit) is a projected 1-3-4-5 stack of the St. Louis Cardinals:
The Cardinals are coming off a doubleheader yesterday, but they did put up 14 combined runs and got some rest for Aledmys Diaz and Jedd Gyorko in the night game. They should be sufficiently contrarian tonight, as their 4.4 implied run total is just above average in this slate. They are popping so much in our Player Models likely because they’re facing Reds righty Tim Adleman, who ranks second in the slate with a 1.818 HR/9 and has awful recent Statcast data, allowing a batted ball distance of 245 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 65 percent. Matt Carpenter is especially intriguing tonight, as he has a .246 ISO against righties and has averaged a batted ball distance of 253 feet over his last nine games.
Batters
Our new Recent Batted Ball Luck metric (mentioned earlier) also applies to batters, such as Jason Kipnis. He’s still early into his 2017 season after being reactivated from the DL, and people might think he’s still struggling from an injury to his right rotator cuff.
But his batted ball data suggests that’s not true: Over his last five games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 247 feet and a fly ball rate of 61 percent. It’s likely that he’s been unlucky in terms of fantasy production to start the year, and this video confirms that as true.
Reddick steals Kipnis of a home run in center field!!! pic.twitter.com/PfbIkZFKKh
— TheRenderMLB (@TheRenderMLB) April 25, 2017
He’s projected to hit sixth today (per the MLB Lineups page) for a high-powered Cleveland offense implied for a slate-high 5.3 runs.
Carlos Correa leads all batters today with 10 Pro Trends, and he’s projected to hit cleanup for an Astros team currently implied for 4.8 runs. He’s all the way down to $3,600 on FanDuel for some reason and has a 90 percent Bargain Rating. That could be due to his -1.88 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, but don’t be fooled. His Statcast data suggests he’s doing just fine making contact: Over his last nine games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 256 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 61 percent, and a hard hit rate of 42 percent. He hasn’t been Kipnis-level unlucky, but it’s pretty close.
Kris Bryant will likely go underowned, as the Cubs are currently implied for a merely average 4.4 runs today against Pomeranz. That said, Pom is not immune to giving up the long ball — he’s allowed three home runs over his last two starts — and Bryant absolutely mashes lefties, as evidenced by his .347 ISO and .127 ISO split against them over the past year. When he’s had a Park Factor of at least 50, he’s averaged a +3.6 DraftKings Plus/Minus and a 16 percent Upside mark against lefties (per our MLB Trends tool):
One of my favorite ways of identifying high-upside batters with low ownership is to sort by ISO and then look at our projected ownership ranges. Bryant has the highest ISO in the slate (outside of Eric Thames, of course), and yet he’s projected to be owned in only five to eight percent of lineups. Pro subscribers can review ownership trends across stakes in our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
