The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 14-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are five pitchers with salaries above $10,000:
Justin Verlander checks in with the slate’s highest salary for his matchup against the Rangers. Verlander has been amazing for the Astros this season, averaging a +13.53 FanDuel Plus/Minus with an elite 93% Consistency Rating. Overall, it’s an excellent matchup for Verlander, as the projected Rangers lineup owns a 27.8% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months. Furthermore, the Rangers rank 25th against right-handed pitchers this season in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) per FanGraphs. The Astros are sizeable favorites (-199 moneyline odds), and the Rangers are implied for just 3.7 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions, salaries and Vegas data have been extremely reliable (per our Trends tool):
Speaking of sizable favorites: Chris Sale and the Red Sox own the slate’s highest odds (-305) by a significant margin, and he has the slate’s highest K Prediction (10.3) against a projected White Sox lineup with a high 29.2% strikeout rate and low .286 weighted on-base average (wOBA) over the past year against left-handed pitchers. Moreover, Sale has excellent recent batted-ball data with his 86-mph exit velocity and 21% hard-hit rate. Our FanDuel database for MLB dates back to 2012, and we have only 46 instances of pitchers with similar salaries having moneyline odds of at least -305. As expected, they’ve dominated:
Sale is in an excellent position to destroy his former team.
Jacob deGrom is rarely an underdog, but he is today (+109 moneyline odds) against the Yankees, who rank second in wRC+ against righties this season. While the projected Yankees lineup is prone to strike out with a 27.2% K rate over the past 12 months against righties, it also boasts a stellar .335 wOBA over that time. On a slate full of aces in better spots, deGrom should have reduced ownership, which makes him an intriguing guaranteed prize pool candidate. deGrom is in great recent batted-ball form, sporting a 195-foot average distance, 87-mph exit velocity and 18% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Additionally, he’s been lights out over his previous four starts:
Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, batted-ball data and opponent implied run totals (3.9) have averaged a +5.26 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Stephen Strasburg has been red-hot over the past month:
Strasburg will take on a Giants team that owns the slate’s second-lowest implied run total (3.1). Given Strasburg’s salary, the opposing projected Giants lineup has a low-ish strikeout rate (24.9% against righties over the past year), but it also has a mediocre .304 wOBA. Overall, Strasburg is in an excellent spot with his 8.0 K Prediction and -199 moneyline odds. Historically, he has averaged a +5.84 FanDuel Plus/Minus with comparable odds.
Trevor Bauer, among the favored aces, owns the lowest K Prediction (6.9), lowest odds (-160) and highest opponent implied run total (3.8). While Bauer has been outstanding over his past 10 starts (+11.42 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 90% Consistency), he likely has the lowest upside among today’s studs. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have historically been mediocre:
Values
Garrett Richards may be a viable SP2 on DraftKings ($7,700) if you don’t want to pay up for two aces. Richards possesses a respectable 7.3 K Prediction against a projected Twins lineup with a 26.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Richards also has a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -26 feet. Overall, he has an average matchup, as the Twins rank 18th in wRC+ against righties this season and are implied for 4.1 runs.
Caleb Smith owns a solid 87% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. He has an elite matchup against a projected Padres lineup with a 28.2% strikeout rate and .286 wOBA against lefties over the past year. It’s an attractive spot for Smith, who boasts a 7.8 K Prediction and -130 moneyline odds against a Padres team implied for a paltry 3.6 runs.
Fastballs
Masahiro Tanaka: He possesses a solid 7.4 K Prediction against a Mets team implied for 3.7 runs. The primary concern with Tanaka is that he’s allowed a 232-foot average distance and 42% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days.
J.A. Happ: He doesn’t always have the most strikeout upside, but his 6.0 K Prediction is serviceable, and the opposing Orioles are implied for a palatable 3.8 runs. The Blue Jays are -182 moneyline favorites, and the Orioles rank just 25th in wRC+ against lefties this season.
Walker Buehler: He has a difficult draw against a projected Braves lineup with a strikeout rate of just 22.6% over the past 12 months against righties, but the Braves are implied for a weak 3.2 runs, and the Dodgers are -186 moneyline favorites.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Cardinals, who are implied for 5.2 runs:
The Cardinals have a sublime matchup against Reds righty Matt Harvey. Leadoff man Matt Carpenter has struggled lately, averaging a +0.20 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 30% Consistency over his past 10 games. However, his +22 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) suggests that he’s been unlucky. Overall, Carpenter’s smashed the ball over the past 15 days with an outstanding 252-foot average distance, 97-mph exit velocity, and 55% hard-hit rate. Historically, hitters with comparable batted-ball data have averaged a +1.61 DraftKings Plus/Minus. This looks like a potential bounceback spot for Carpenter, as he owns a .373 wOBA and .232 isolated power (ISO) against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
One of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Diamondbacks, who are implied for 5.3 runs:
The Diamondbacks have the luxury of playing at Coors Field, which has a Park Factor of 100 and projected Weather Rating of 93 for Friday night. Historically, when Coors Field boasts a Weather Rating in the 90th percentile, hitters have averaged a massive +2.80 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 51% Consistency. Jake Lamb is sporting a .347 wOBA and .203 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past year and has excellent Statcast data over the past 15 days with a 237-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 45% hard-hit rate. Hitters at Coors with comparable Statcast data have averaged an absurd +5.45 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Paul Goldschmidt will be on the negative side of his wOBA and ISO splits, but he’s generated plenty of hard contact over the past 15 days with a 92-mph exit velocity and 47% hard-hit rate.
Other Batters
The Red Sox are sitting with a 5.2-run implied total. Mitch Moreland has obliterated righties over the past year to the tune of a .354 wOBA and .245 ISO. Furthermore, he’s in excellent recent form, sporting positive differentials in average distance (+10 feet), exit velocity (+3 mph) and hard-hit rate (+9 percentage points). Teammate J.D. Martinez has also smashed righties over the last year with an elite .426 wOBA and .368 ISO. And Andrew Benintendi has averaged an amazing +5.47 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 60% Consistency over the past 10 days and boasts a .369 wOBA and.196 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past year.
The Astros are in an excellent spot, checking in with a 5.5-run implied total against Rangers pitcher Doug Fister. Third baseman Alex Bregman boasts a solid 81% Bargain Rating on DraftKings along with a .358 wOBA and .179 ISO against righties over the past year. Bregman could be a cheap way to gain exposure to this high-powered Astros team if you don’t want to pay a premium for the other hitters on the roster. That said, Jose Altuve has an elite .411 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months and is in solid recent form with positive differentials in average distance (+14 feet), exit velocity (+4 mph), and hard-hit rate (+15 percentage points).
On both DraftKings (86) and FanDuel (92), the Blue Jays own the best Team Value Rating. Furthermore, their Nos. 1, 3, 4 and 5 hitters have shown exceptional power against righties over the past year:
With the exception of Yangervis Solarte, all of the stacked Blue Jays possess either exit velocities of at least 90 mph or recent average distances of 212 feet over the past 15 days. Hitters with similar implied run totals (5.3) and batted-ball data have historically averaged a +1.64 Plus/Minus on FanDuel, where all the stacked Jays hitters have Bargain Ratings of at least 70%.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Chris Sale
Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
