The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and Predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 14-game main slate that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are three pitchers at $11,000 or more:
Trevor Bauer has been dominant this season, averaging a +13.99 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 88% Consistency. Bauer has a healthy 7.7 K Prediction, and the Indians are sizeable -169 moneyline favorites. However, there are some concerns. Among the top-priced pitchers, Bauer’s K Prediction and opponent implied run total (3.5) are the worst marks.
Further, the matchup is below average, as the A’s rank first in the league in hard-hit rate and fifth in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers this season (FanGraphs). One more slight concern is his 226-foot average distance and 92 mph exit velocity allowed over his past two games. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, Vegas data, and batted-ball metrics have historically been relatively mediocre (per our Trends tool):
If it weren’t for the Mets’ anemic offense, Jacob deGrom‘s fantasy totals would be even better if he were getting points for the wins, making his +9.88 average FanDuel Plus/Minus with 75% Consistency all the more impressive. The matchup against the Marlins is solid, as they rank 24th in wRC+ against righties this season, and their projected lineup owns a weak .281 weighted on-base average (wOBA) over the past 12 months. Further, deGrom will have the benefit of being in the pitcher-friendly Marlins Park (Park Factor of 85).
The Mets also have some of the best Vegas data on the slate (-164 moneyline odds); the Marlins are implied for just 3.1 runs. deGrom’s 94 mph exit velocity and 46% hard-hit rate over his past two starts could be a minor cause for concern, but the Marlins rank just 21st in hard-hit rate this season. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions (7.8), salaries, Vegas data, and Park Factors have been incredibly consistent:
Gerrit Cole leads all of the top-priced pitching options in K Prediction (8.5), opponent implied run total (3.0), and moneyline odds (-177). The matchup against the Rays is solid, as their projected lineup owns a 26% strikeout rate, though their 14th-ranked offense in wRC+ is average. He has excellent batted-ball data, holding opposing teams to a 191-foot average distance, 87 mph exit velocity, and 33% hard-hit rate over his past two starts. Cole may be one of the most popular options given he has the most favorable Vegas data and metrics among the top-priced options. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have been great investments:
Values
Rich Hill and the Dodgers are -154 moneyline favorites and have a great matchup against the Rockies away from Coors. The Rockies’ projected lineup boasts a high 28.7% strikeout rate against lefties over the past year, and they’re sitting with an implied run total of just 3.4 runs. The issue with Hill is he doesn’t tend to pitch deep into games, which adds some risk if he doesn’t have an efficient outing.
Marco Gonzales and the Mariners are the largest favorites on the slate (-208 moneyline odds), and he costs a mere $7,800 on DraftKings and $7,300 on FanDuel. Gonzales’ 4.7 K Prediction is nothing to write home about, but the projected Royals lineup has a pedestrian .291 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months, and they rank 23rd in split-adjusted wRC+ this season. Our database doesn’t have a huge sample size of pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data, but those who’ve fit the criteria have historically been great values:
Fastballs
Patrick Corbin: He is just below the top-priced pitchers and owns an excellent 8.4 K Prediction. Corbin boasts solid Vegas data, as the Diamondbacks are -137 moneyline favorites and the Giants are implied for 3.7 runs. That said, his 235-foot average distance, 95 mph exit velocity, and 50% hard-hit rate allowed over his past two starts is a bit worrisome. Corbin is better reserved for tournaments.
Marcus Stroman: He has one of the better matchups on the board against a Tigers team that ranks 25th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season. Moreover, the Blue Jays are large -195 moneyline favorites, and the Tigers are implied for a paltry 3.7 runs.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Rangers, who are implied for 5.7 runs:
Dylan Covey has had some decent outings this season, but he’s allowed at least four earned runs in his past two starts while allowing a generous amount of hard contact, evidenced by his 41% hard-hit rate. The Weather Rating (11) is quite unfavorable for pitchers since it’s going to be a scorching 94 degrees in Texas. Historically, pitchers in games with comparable Weather Ratings have averaged a -2.25 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Joey Gallo has always been a boom-or-bust option with his 38.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past year, but he has a tremendous amount of power with his .361 wOBA and .315 isolated power (ISO) against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Gallo’s absurdly-high +68 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) Score suggest he’s been unlucky of late. He’ll enter this game in great recent batted-ball form, sporting a 249-foot average distance, 96 mph exit velocity, and 52% hard-hit rate. All three marks are positive differentials compared to his 12-month average. Historically, hitters with comparable RBBL Scores and batted-ball metrics have averaged a +2.43 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
One of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Blue Jays, who are implied for 5.3 runs:
The Blue Jays will square off against Francisco Liriano, who has a woeful 1.48 WHIP and a mediocre 7.30 SO/9 over the past year. He struggled in his last start, allowing an ample amount of hard contact, evidenced by his 50% hard-hit rate and 94 mph exit velocity.
With the exception of Kevin Pillar, the stacked Blue Jays have been crushing the baseball over the past 15 days:
Justin Smoak‘s sporting a 236-foot average distance, 91 mph exit velocity, and 36% hard-hit rate. Historically, hitters with comparable batted-ball data featured in games with similar implied run totals have averaged a +2.09 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Teoscar Hernandez has smashed left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months to the tune of a .338 wOBA and .296 ISO.
The Blue Jays have received striking reverse line movement since their lines were posted. Their moneyline shifted from -175 to -195, and they’re currently receiving 49% of the bets but a whopping 71% of the money, which is a large discrepancy. Additionally, their implied run total has increased from 4.9 to 5.3. All signs point to sharp money coming in on the Jays. They may be a great way to sprinkle in value with more expensive stacks, as the aforementioned hitters all have Bargain Ratings of 70% or higher on FanDuel.
Other Batters
Eric Thames is seemingly in a good spot again, this time against right-hander Sal Romano. Over the past year, Thames has crushed righties with his .374 wOBA and elite .287 ISO. Moreover, he has some of the best batted-ball data on the slate, sporting a 259-foot average distance, 95 mph exit velocity, and 51% hard-hit rate. Historically, leadoff hitters with comparable batted-ball data have averaged a +2.50 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Luis Valbuena is projected to occupy the No. 5 spot in the order against David Hess, who owns an awful 1.46 WHIP, 1.96 HR/9, and 5.31 SO/9 over the past 12 months. Over the past year, Hess has also allowed a .214 ISO to opposing hitters. In the same time frame, Valbuena boasts a .238 ISO against righties. He isn’t the most consistent option at the position, but his +57 RBBL Score on DraftKings suggests Valbuena has been incredibly unlucky of late. This may be a nice bounce-back spot for him in a game where the Angels have the slate’s second-highest implied run total (5.5). Hitters with comparable RBBL Scores hitting in similar lineups spots and featured in games with comparable implied run totals have historically averaged a +1.81 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Mike Trout will also be on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO splits, posting an absurd .449 wOBA and .311 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Justin Upton has been obliterating the ball of late with a 232-foot average distance, 98 mph exit velocity, and 53% hard-hit rate. All three marks represent positive differentials compared to his 12-month average.
Yoan Moncada and the White Sox have a 4.9 implied run total tonight. They’ll be in Texas, where hitters get an exceptional Weather Rating of 89. The great hitting environment could mesh well with Moncada’s excellent batted-ball data: He’s posted a 233-foot average distance, 93 mph exit velocity, and 47% hard-hit rate over his past 14 games, and the switch-hitting Moncada has crushed righties over the past year to the tune of a .339 wOBA and .213 ISO. He’s an attractive value on FanDuel with a 93% Bargain Rating.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Justin Smoak
Photo credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
